Alberto Giaretta

G. Pillonetto, A. Giaretta, A. Aravkin et al.

Data-driven discovery of model equations is a powerful approach for understanding the behavior of dynamical systems in many scientific fields. In particular, the ability to learn mathematical models from data would benefit systems biology, where the complex nature of these systems often makes a bottom up approach to modeling unfeasible. In recent years, sparse estimation techniques have gained prominence in system identification, primarily using parametric paradigms to efficiently capture system dynamics with minimal model complexity. In particular, the Sindy algorithm has successfully used sparsity to estimate nonlinear systems by extracting from a library of functions only a few key terms needed to capture the dynamics of these systems. However, parametric models often fall short in accurately representing certain nonlinearities inherent in complex systems. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel framework that integrates sparse parametric estimation with nonparametric techniques. It captures nonlinearities that Sindy cannot describe without requiring a priori information about their functional form. That is, without expanding the library of functions to include the one that is trying to be discovered. We illustrate our approach on several examples related to estimation of complex biological phenomena.

Alberto Giaretta, Mauro Bisiacco, Gianluigi Pillonetto

One central theme in machine learning is function estimation from sparse and noisy data. An example is supervised learning where the elements of the training set are couples, each containing an input location and an output response. In the last decades, a substantial amount of work has been devoted to design estimators for the unknown function and to study their convergence to the optimal predictor, also characterizing the learning rate. These results typically rely on stationary assumptions where input locations are drawn from a probability distribution that does not change in time. In this work, we consider kernel-based ridge regression and derive convergence conditions under non stationary distributions, addressing also cases where stochastic adaption may happen infinitely often. This includes the important exploration-exploitation problems where e.g. a set of agents/robots has to monitor an environment to reconstruct a sensorial field and their movements rules are continuously updated on the basis of the acquired knowledge on the field and/or the surrounding environment.

Gianluigi Pillonetto, Alberto Giaretta, Mauro Bisiacco

Understanding the principles that govern dynamical systems is a central challenge across many scientific domains, including biology and ecology. Incomplete knowledge of nonlinear interactions and stochastic effects often renders bottom-up modeling approaches ineffective, motivating the development of methods that can discover governing equations directly from data. In such contexts, parametric models often struggle without strong prior knowledge, especially when estimating intrinsic noise. Nonetheless, incorporating stochastic effects is often essential for understanding the dynamic behavior of complex systems such as gene regulatory networks and signaling pathways. To address these challenges, we introduce Trine (Three-phase Regression for INtrinsic noisE), a nonparametric, kernel-based framework that infers state-dependent intrinsic noise from time-series data. Trine features a three-stage algorithm that com- bines analytically solvable subproblems with a structured kernel architecture that captures both abrupt noise-driven fluctuations and smooth, state-dependent changes in variance. We validate Trine on biological and ecological systems, demonstrating its ability to uncover hidden dynamics without relying on predefined parametric assumptions. Across several benchmark problems, Trine achieves performance comparable to that of an oracle. Biologically, this oracle can be viewed as an idealized observer capable of directly tracking the random fluctuations in molecular concentrations or reaction events within a cell. The Trine framework thus opens new avenues for understanding how intrinsic noise affects the behavior of complex systems.