Hao Wang

Xiyin Zeng, Yuyu Sun, Haoyang Li et al.

Vision-Language-Action systems follow instructions to execute multi-step tasks in multimodal environments. Recent VLA approaches typically rely on post-hoc correction mechanisms or operate under fixed task decompositions and alignment schemes. However, once an intermediate step is mis-specified, local errors propagate through subsequent steps and eventually accumulate into cascading failures. To mitigate this compounding effect, we propose Predictive Alignment and Planning Architecture, a framework that uses prediction and contrast to adjust deviations across three levels: actions, subgoals, and trajectories. Semantic alignment is enforced at all levels using a Sinkhorn-based module and a Score-field module. The predictive correction and alignment jointly update the action generator during training, enabling it to adjust fine-grained steps to remain aligned with the overall intent. We further introduce two new metrics to quantify error propagation and recovery processes in tasks, capturing how mistakes spread and fade over long-horizon execution. Experiments show that ReCAPA achieves competitive results on embodied agent benchmarks such as VisualAgentBench, MineDojo, and AI2-THOR, outperforming strong proprietary and open-source Large Language Model baselines.

Amit K. Chakraborty, Shan Gao, Reza Miry et al.

The timely detection of disease outbreaks through reliable early warning signals (EWSs) is indispensable for effective public health mitigation strategies. Nevertheless, the intricate dynamics of real-world disease spread, often influenced by diverse sources of noise and limited data in the early stages of outbreaks, pose a significant challenge in developing reliable EWSs, as the performance of existing indicators varies with extrinsic and intrinsic noises. Here, we address the challenge of modeling disease when the measurements are corrupted by additive white noise, multiplicative environmental noise, and demographic noise into a standard epidemic mathematical model. To navigate the complexities introduced by these noise sources, we employ a deep learning algorithm that provides EWS in infectious disease outbreak by training on noise-induced disease-spreading models. The indicator's effectiveness is demonstrated through its application to real-world COVID-19 cases in Edmonton and simulated time series derived from diverse disease spread models affected by noise. Notably, the indicator captures an impending transition in a time series of disease outbreaks and outperforms existing indicators. This study contributes to advancing early warning capabilities by addressing the intricate dynamics inherent in real-world disease spread, presenting a promising avenue for enhancing public health preparedness and response efforts.

Reza Miry, Amit K. Chakraborty, Russell Greiner et al.

Early Warning Signals (EWSs) are vital for implementing preventive measures before a disease turns into a pandemic. While new diseases exhibit unique behaviors, they often share fundamental characteristics from a dynamical systems perspective. Moreover, measurements during disease outbreaks are often corrupted by different noise sources, posing challenges for Time Series Classification (TSC) tasks. In this study, we address the problem of having a robust EWS for disease outbreak prediction using a best-performing deep learning model in the domain of TSC. We employed two simulated datasets to train the model: one representing generated dynamical systems with randomly selected polynomial terms to model new disease behaviors, and another simulating noise-induced disease dynamics to account for noisy measurements. The model's performance was analyzed using both simulated data from different disease models and real-world data, including influenza and COVID-19. Results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms previous models, effectively providing EWSs of impending outbreaks across various scenarios. This study bridges advancements in deep learning with the ability to provide robust early warning signals in noisy environments, making it highly applicable to real-world crises involving emerging disease outbreaks.

Shan Gao, Amit K. Chakraborty, Russell Greiner et al.

Forecasting the occurrence and absence of novel disease outbreaks is essential for disease management. Here, we develop a general model, with no real-world training data, that accurately forecasts outbreaks and non-outbreaks. We propose a novel framework, using a feature-based time series classification method to forecast outbreaks and non-outbreaks. We tested our methods on synthetic data from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for slowly changing, noisy disease dynamics. Outbreak sequences give a transcritical bifurcation within a specified future time window, whereas non-outbreak (null bifurcation) sequences do not. We identified incipient differences in time series of infectives leading to future outbreaks and non-outbreaks. These differences are reflected in 22 statistical features and 5 early warning signal indicators. Classifier performance, given by the area under the receiver-operating curve, ranged from 0.99 for large expanding windows of training data to 0.7 for small rolling windows. Real-world performances of classifiers were tested on two empirical datasets, COVID-19 data from Singapore and SARS data from Hong Kong, with two classifiers exhibiting high accuracy. In summary, we showed that there are statistical features that distinguish outbreak and non-outbreak sequences long before outbreaks occur. We could detect these differences in synthetic and real-world data sets, well before potential outbreaks occur.