Abigail Loe

Abigail Loe, Susan Murry, Zhenke Wu

Alternating recurrent events -- event-times of a specific nature that trigger a secondary refractory period -- occur in a wide-range of fields, including behavioral science, criminal justice, and biostatistics. Analysis of these events requires careful attention to the statistical nuance, including correlated observations and repeated outcomes subject to potential censoring. We develop an online dynamic prediction framework appropriate for predicting subsequent alternating recurrent events, by developing neural network theory for a statistical audiences and applying inverse probability weighted pseudo-observations. The proposed model is applied to dynamically predict alternating recurrent event-free time, showing good performance in simulation, and outstanding capability in application to predicting periods of low mood for first-year medical residents. We close with a discussion.

Abigail Loe, Susan Murray, Zhenke Wu

Neural networks are a commonly used prediction tool in computer science and statistics. However, the barrier to entry of this interesting field remains high, particularly for classical statisticians trained in a frequentist perspective. In this letter, we demystify neural networks by describing networks that approximate a linear regression and describe common customizations that provide a foundation for further study.