Muxi Chen

Ailing Zeng, Muxi Chen, Lei Zhang et al.

Recently, there has been a surge of Transformer-based solutions for the long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) task. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in this work. Specifically, Transformers is arguably the most successful solution to extract the semantic correlations among the elements in a long sequence. However, in time series modeling, we are to extract the temporal relations in an ordered set of continuous points. While employing positional encoding and using tokens to embed sub-series in Transformers facilitate preserving some ordering information, the nature of the \emph{permutation-invariant} self-attention mechanism inevitably results in temporal information loss. To validate our claim, we introduce a set of embarrassingly simple one-layer linear models named LTSF-Linear for comparison. Experimental results on nine real-life datasets show that LTSF-Linear surprisingly outperforms existing sophisticated Transformer-based LTSF models in all cases, and often by a large margin. Moreover, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to explore the impacts of various design elements of LTSF models on their temporal relation extraction capability. We hope this surprising finding opens up new research directions for the LTSF task. We also advocate revisiting the validity of Transformer-based solutions for other time series analysis tasks (e.g., anomaly detection) in the future. Code is available at: \url{https://github.com/cure-lab/LTSF-Linear}.

Muxi Chen, Zhijian Xu, Ailing Zeng et al.

Data augmentation (DA) has become a de facto solution to expand training data size for deep learning. With the proliferation of deep models for time series analysis, various time series DA techniques are proposed in the literature, e.g., cropping-, warping-, flipping-, and mixup-based methods. However, these augmentation methods mainly apply to time series classification and anomaly detection tasks. In time series forecasting (TSF), we need to model the fine-grained temporal relationship within time series segments to generate accurate forecasting results given data in a look-back window. Existing DA solutions in the time domain would break such a relationship, leading to poor forecasting accuracy. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes simple yet effective frequency domain augmentation techniques that ensure the semantic consistency of augmented data-label pairs in forecasting, named FrAug. We conduct extensive experiments on eight widely-used benchmarks with several state-of-the-art TSF deep models. Our results show that FrAug can boost the forecasting accuracy of TSF models in most cases. Moreover, we show that FrAug enables models trained with 1\% of the original training data to achieve similar performance to the ones trained on full training data, which is particularly attractive for cold-start forecasting. Finally, we show that applying test-time training with FrAug greatly improves forecasting accuracy for time series with significant distribution shifts, which often occurs in real-life TSF applications. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Fraug-more-results-1785.

Muxi Chen, Chenchen Zhao, Qiang Xu

Despite the significant success of deep learning models in computer vision, they often exhibit systematic failures on specific data subsets, known as error slices. Identifying and mitigating these error slices is crucial to enhancing model robustness and reliability in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we introduce HiBug2, an automated framework for error slice discovery and model repair. HiBug2 first generates task-specific visual attributes to highlight instances prone to errors through an interpretable and structured process. It then employs an efficient slice enumeration algorithm to systematically identify error slices, overcoming the combinatorial challenges that arise during slice exploration. Additionally, HiBug2 extends its capabilities by predicting error slices beyond the validation set, addressing a key limitation of prior approaches. Extensive experiments across multiple domains, including image classification, pose estimation, and object detection - show that HiBug2 not only improves the coherence and precision of identified error slices but also significantly enhances the model repair capabilities.