Daniel Peralta

Germán González-Almagro, Daniel Peralta, Eli De Poorter et al.

Clustering is a well-known unsupervised machine learning approach capable of automatically grouping discrete sets of instances with similar characteristics. Constrained clustering is a semi-supervised extension to this process that can be used when expert knowledge is available to indicate constraints that can be exploited. Well-known examples of such constraints are must-link (indicating that two instances belong to the same group) and cannot-link (two instances definitely do not belong together). The research area of constrained clustering has grown significantly over the years with a large variety of new algorithms and more advanced types of constraints being proposed. However, no unifying overview is available to easily understand the wide variety of available methods, constraints and benchmarks. To remedy this, this study presents in-detail the background of constrained clustering and provides a novel ranked taxonomy of the types of constraints that can be used in constrained clustering. In addition, it focuses on the instance-level pairwise constraints, and gives an overview of its applications and its historical context. Finally, it presents a statistical analysis covering 307 constrained clustering methods, categorizes them according to their features, and provides a ranking score indicating which methods have the most potential based on their popularity and validation quality. Finally, based upon this analysis, potential pitfalls and future research directions are provided.

Bhanu Angam, Alessandro Beretta, Eli De Poorter et al.

Vaccine supply chain optimization can benefit from hierarchical time series forecasting, when grouping the vaccines by type or location. However, forecasts of different hierarchy levels become incoherent when higher levels do not match the sum of the lower levels forecasts, which can be addressed by reconciliation methods. In this paper, we tackle the vaccine sale forecasting problem by modeling sales data from GSK between 2010 and 2021 as a hierarchical time series. After forecasting future values with several ARIMA models, we systematically compare the performance of various reconciliation methods, using statistical tests. We also compare the performance of the forecast before and after COVID. The results highlight Minimum Trace and Weighted Least Squares with Structural scaling as the best performing methods, which provided a coherent forecast while reducing the forecast error of the baseline ARIMA.