Thanawat Sornwanee

Gabe Guo, Thanawat Sornwanee, Lutong Hao et al.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

Elliot L. Epstein, John Winnicki, Thanawat Sornwanee et al.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident. To evaluate this behavior, we introduce FermiEval, a benchmark of Fermi-style estimation questions with a rigorous scoring rule for confidence interval coverage and sharpness. Across several modern models, nominal 99\% intervals cover the true answer only 65\% of the time on average. With a conformal prediction based approach that adjusts the intervals, we obtain accurate 99\% observed coverage, and the Winkler interval score decreases by 54\%. We also propose direct log-probability elicitation and quantile adjustment methods, which further reduce overconfidence at high confidence levels. Finally, we develop a perception-tunnel theory explaining why LLMs exhibit overconfidence: when reasoning under uncertainty, they act as if sampling from a truncated region of their inferred distribution, neglecting its tails.

Elliot L. Epstein, Rajat Dwaraknath, Thanawat Sornwanee et al.

We propose a novel method for density estimation that leverages an estimated score function to debias kernel density estimation (SD-KDE). In our approach, each data point is adjusted by taking a single step along the score function with a specific choice of step size, followed by standard KDE with a modified bandwidth. The step size and modified bandwidth are chosen to remove the leading order bias in the KDE. Our experiments on synthetic tasks in 1D, 2D and on MNIST, demonstrate that our proposed SD-KDE method significantly reduces the mean integrated squared error compared to the standard Silverman KDE, even with noisy estimates in the score function. These results underscore the potential of integrating score-based corrections into nonparametric density estimation.

Thanawat Sornwanee

In a probabilistic reformulation of a combinatorial problem, we often face an optimization over a hypercube, which corresponds to the Bernoulli probability parameter for each binary variable in the primal problem. The combinatorial nature suggests that an exact gradient computation requires multiple queries. We propose a stochastic gradient that is unbiased and requires only a single query of the combinatorial function. This method encompasses a well-established REINFORCE (through an importance sampling), as well as including a class of new stochastic gradients.

Thanawat Sornwanee

We show how the differentiability method employed in the paper ``Differentiable Integer Linear Programming'', Geng, et al., 2025 as shown in its theorem 5 is incorrect. Moreover, there already exists some downstream work that inherits the same error. The underlying reason comes from that, though being continuous in expectation, the surrogate loss is discontinuous in almost every realization of the randomness, for the stochastic gradient descent.