Kai Xu

Isha Puri, Shivchander Sudalairaj, Guangxuan Xu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code, videos, and further information available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Giorgio Giannone, Guangxuan Xu, Nikhil Shivakumar Nayak et al. · mit

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This failure mode, known as particle impoverishment, is especially severe under constrained computational budgets. To address this, we analyze the problem and identify two root causes: a lack of diversity in the particle set due to overconfident resampling and consequent inability to assess the potential of a reasoning path. We introduce Entropic Particle Filtering (ePF), an algorithm that integrates two new techniques to solve these issues. The first technique, Entropic Annealing (EA), directly mitigates particle impoverishment by monitoring search diversity via entropy; when diversity drops, it intervenes by dynamically annealing the resampling distribution to preserve exploration. The second, an enhancement called Look-ahead Modulation (LaM), adds a predictive guide to evaluate a state's potential based on its successors. On several challenging math benchmarks, ePF significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves up to a 50 % relative improvement in task reward. Together, these methods improve PF's resilience by balancing the exploration of diverse solution spaces with the exploitation of high-reward regions, ultimately leading to higher-quality solutions.

Akash Srivastava, Yamini Bansal, Yukun Ding et al.

Current autoencoder-based disentangled representation learning methods achieve disentanglement by penalizing the (aggregate) posterior to encourage statistical independence of the latent factors. This approach introduces a trade-off between disentangled representation learning and reconstruction quality since the model does not have enough capacity to learn correlated latent variables that capture detail information present in most image data. To overcome this trade-off, we present a novel multi-stage modeling approach where the disentangled factors are first learned using a penalty-based disentangled representation learning method; then, the low-quality reconstruction is improved with another deep generative model that is trained to model the missing correlated latent variables, adding detail information while maintaining conditioning on the previously learned disentangled factors. Taken together, our multi-stage modelling approach results in a single, coherent probabilistic model that is theoretically justified by the principal of D-separation and can be realized with a variety of model classes including likelihood-based models such as variational autoencoders, implicit models such as generative adversarial networks, and tractable models like normalizing flows or mixtures of Gaussians. We demonstrate that our multi-stage model has higher reconstruction quality than current state-of-the-art methods with equivalent disentanglement performance across multiple standard benchmarks. In addition, we apply the multi-stage model to generate synthetic tabular datasets, showcasing an enhanced performance over benchmark models across a variety of metrics. The interpretability analysis further indicates that the multi-stage model can effectively uncover distinct and meaningful features of variations from which the original distribution can be recovered.