Jochen Stiasny

Jochen Stiasny, Baosen Zhang, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

The dynamic behaviour of a power system can be described by a system of differential-algebraic equations. Time-domain simulations are used to simulate the evolution of these dynamics. They often require the use of small time step sizes and therefore become computationally expensive. To accelerate these simulations, we propose a simulator - PINNSim - that allows to take significantly larger time steps. It is based on Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for the solution of the dynamics of single components in the power system. To resolve their interaction we employ a scalable root-finding algorithm. We demonstrate PINNSim on a 9-bus system and show the increased time step size compared to a trapezoidal integration rule. We discuss key characteristics of PINNSim and important steps for developing PINNSim into a fully fledged simulator. As such, it could offer the opportunity for significantly increasing time step sizes and thereby accelerating time-domain simulations.

Jochen Stiasny, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

The simulation of power system dynamics poses a computationally expensive task. Considering the growing uncertainty of generation and demand patterns, thousands of scenarios need to be continuously assessed to ensure the safety of power systems. Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising solution for drastically accelerating computations of non-linear dynamical systems. This work investigates the applicability of these methods for power system dynamics, focusing on the dynamic response to load disturbances. Comparing the prediction of PINNs to the solution of conventional solvers, we find that PINNs can be 10 to 1000 times faster than conventional solvers. At the same time, we find them to be sufficiently accurate and numerically stable even for large time steps. To facilitate a deeper understanding, this paper also present a new regularisation of Neural Network (NN) training by introducing a gradient-based term in the loss function. The resulting NNs, which we call dtNNs, help us deliver a comprehensive analysis about the strengths and weaknesses of the NN based approaches, how incorporating knowledge of the underlying physics affects NN performance, and how this compares with conventional solvers for power system dynamics.

Jochen Stiasny, Samuel Chevalier, Rahul Nellikkath et al.

Deep decarbonization of the energy sector will require massive penetration of stochastic renewable energy resources and an enormous amount of grid asset coordination; this represents a challenging paradigm for the power system operators who are tasked with maintaining grid stability and security in the face of such changes. With its ability to learn from complex datasets and provide predictive solutions on fast timescales, machine learning (ML) is well-posed to help overcome these challenges as power systems transform in the coming decades. In this work, we outline five key challenges (dataset generation, data pre-processing, model training, model assessment, and model embedding) associated with building trustworthy ML models which learn from physics-based simulation data. We then demonstrate how linking together individual modules, each of which overcomes a respective challenge, at sequential stages in the machine learning pipeline can help enhance the overall performance of the training process. In particular, we implement methods that connect different elements of the learning pipeline through feedback, thus "closing the loop" between model training, performance assessments, and re-training. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework, its constituent modules, and its feedback connections by learning the N-1 small-signal stability margin associated with a detailed model of a proposed North Sea Wind Power Hub system.

Runyao Yu, Chenhui Gu, Jochen Stiasny et al.

Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation models have led to substantial improvements in general time series forecasting, most existing approaches do not incorporate prior graph knowledge from the transmission topology, which can limit their ability to exploit meaningful cross-region dependencies in interconnected power systems, motivating a domain-specific foundation model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing a comprehensive and up-to-date dataset across 24 European countries (38 regions), spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-01. Building on this groundwork, we propose PriceFM, a probabilistic foundation model pretrained on this large dataset. Specifically, PriceFM maps each region's price and exogenous features, including load, solar, and wind generation forecasts, into a comparable latent embedding via a shared Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) projection layer, then injects prior graph knowledge by constructing a sparse graph mask derived from transmission topology. Across a large-scale European benchmark, PriceFM achieves strong performance and demonstrates superior generalization compared with multiple competitive baselines. The results highlight the value of topology-guided forecasting with increasing renewable generation and strong cross-border interconnections. The methodology is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/PriceFM/.

Betül Mamudi, Jochen Stiasny, Jochen Cremer

Pseudo-measurements are the dominant source of uncertainty in distribution system state estimation (DSSE), yet their distributional assumptions are treated as fixed inputs by existing uncertainty quantification methods. This paper investigates whether the uncertainty bounds assumed by weighted least squares (WLS)-based DSSE are sensitive to these distributional assumptions, and whether this sensitivity is quantifiable using the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM). We propose a diagnostic framework that compares the true Cramér-Rao Bound (CRB) against the WLS-assumed CRB via a per-bus, per-scenario ratio, computed directly from the converged WLS solution. Pseudo-measurement distributions are varied across five types in 22 variants matched at equal spread to isolate shape effects from variance. Experiments on the CIGRE MV network across 100 operating scenarios yield three findings. First, heavy-tailed and skewed distributions show consistently that WLS systematically overstates its uncertainty bounds. Second, the degree of miscalibration varies across buses and operating scenarios, confirming that distributional sensitivity is not uniform. Third, the CRB ratio is structurally blind to mean-shift bias, exposing a fundamental limitation of variance-based uncertainty diagnostics. Together, these results confirm the hypothesis and show that the choice of pseudo-measurement distribution directly distorts the confidence limits under WLS-based assumptions, which must be explicitly accounted for in any uncertainty-aware DSSE method.

Runyao Yu, Julia Lin, Derek W. Bunn et al.

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based price formation, heterogeneous input signals, and incomplete data availability caused by communication delays, publication lags, and measurement outages. This paper proposes a market-rule-informed neural forecasting framework that embeds imbalance price formation rules into the latent space of an expressive neural network. The proposed framework preserves raw signal information while exploiting transparent market-rule priors. We further analyze operational robustness by removing price-component information and characterize how forecasting performance scales with input length and forecasting horizon. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines, demonstrating that market-rule priors and expressive neural networks should be jointly used for accurate and computationally sustainable forecasting in industrial energy trading applications. The implementation is publicly available at https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/.

Jochen Stiasny, Jochen Cremer

The energy transition challenges operational tasks based on simulations and optimisation. These computations need to be fast and flexible as the grid is ever-expanding, and renewables' uncertainty requires a flexible operational environment. Learned approximations, proxies or surrogates -- we refer to them as Neural Solvers -- excel in terms of evaluation speed, but are inflexible with respect to adjusting to changing tasks. Hence, neural solvers are usually applicable to highly specific tasks, which limits their usefulness in practice; a widely reusable, foundational neural solver is required. Therefore, this work proposes the Residual Power Flow (RPF) formulation. RPF formulates residual functions based on Kirchhoff's laws to quantify the infeasibility of an operating condition. The minimisation of the residuals determines the voltage solution; an additional slack variable is needed to achieve AC-feasibility. RPF forms a natural, foundational subtask of tasks subject to power flow constraints. We propose to learn RPF with neural solvers to exploit their speed. Furthermore, RPF improves learning performance compared to common power flow formulations. To solve operational tasks, we integrate the neural solver in a Predict-then-Optimise (PO) approach to combine speed and flexibility. The case study investigates the IEEE 9-bus system and three tasks (AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF), power-flow and quasi-steady state power flow) solved by PO. The results demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of learning with RPF.

Petros Ellinas, Rahul Nellikath, Ignasi Ventura et al.

Verification of Neural Networks (NNs) that approximate the solution of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) is a major milestone towards enhancing their trustworthiness and accelerating their deployment, especially for safety-critical systems. If successful, such NNs can become integral parts of simulation software tools which can accelerate the simulation of complex dynamic systems more than 100 times. However, the verification of these functions poses major challenges; it is not straightforward how to efficiently bound them or how to represent the derivative of the NN. This work addresses both these problems. First, we define the NN derivative as a finite difference approximation. Then, we formulate the PDE residual bounding problem alongside the Initial Value Problem's error propagation. Finally, for the first time, we tackle the problem of bounding an NN function without a priori knowledge of the output domain. For this, we build a parallel branching algorithm that combines the incomplete CROWN solver and Gradient Attack for termination and domain rejection conditions. We demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed framework, and we suggest further work to enhance its efficiency.

Jochen Stiasny, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

The ability to accurately approximate trajectories of dynamical systems enables their analysis, prediction, and control. Neural network (NN)-based approximations have attracted significant interest due to fast evaluation with good accuracy over long integration time steps. In contrast to established numerical approximation schemes such as Runge-Kutta methods, the estimation of the error of the NN-based approximations proves to be difficult. In this work, we propose to use the NN's predictions in a high-order implicit Runge-Kutta (IRK) method. The residuals in the implicit system of equations can be related to the NN's prediction error, hence, we can provide an error estimate at several points along a trajectory. We find that this error estimate highly correlates with the NN's prediction error and that increasing the order of the IRK method improves this estimate. We demonstrate this estimation methodology for Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINNs) on the logistic equation as an illustrative example and then apply it to a four-state electric generator model that is regularly used in power system modelling.

Shengyuan Yan, Farzad Vazinram, Zeynab Kaseb et al.

Power flow (PF) calculations are fundamental to power system analysis to ensure stable and reliable grid operation. The Newton-Raphson (NR) method is commonly used for PF analysis due to its rapid convergence when initialized properly. However, as power grids operate closer to their capacity limits, ill-conditioned cases and convergence issues pose significant challenges. This work, therefore, addresses these challenges by proposing strategies to improve NR initialization, hence minimizing iterations and avoiding divergence. We explore three approaches: (i) an analytical method that estimates the basin of attraction using mathematical bounds on voltages, (ii) Two data-driven models leveraging supervised learning or physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to predict optimal initial guesses, and (iii) a reinforcement learning (RL) approach that incrementally adjusts voltages to accelerate convergence. These methods are tested on benchmark systems. This research is particularly relevant for modern power systems, where high penetration of renewables and decentralized generation require robust and scalable PF solutions. In experiments, all three proposed methods demonstrate a strong ability to provide an initial guess for Newton-Raphson method to converge with fewer steps. The findings provide a pathway for more efficient real-time grid operations, which, in turn, support the transition toward smarter and more resilient electricity networks.

Runyao Yu, Yuchen Tao, Fabian Leimgruber et al.

Probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is essential to manage market uncertainties. However, current methods rely heavily on domain feature extraction, which breaks the end-to-end training pipeline and limits the model's ability to learn expressive representations from the raw orderbook. Moreover, these methods often require training separate models for different quantiles, further violating the end-to-end principle and introducing the quantile crossing issue. Recent advances in time-series models have demonstrated promising performance in general forecasting tasks. However, these models lack inductive biases arising from buy-sell interactions and are thus overparameterized. To address these challenges, we propose an end-to-end probabilistic model called OrderFusion, which produces interaction-aware representations of buy-sell dynamics, hierarchically estimates multiple quantiles, and remains parameter-efficient with only 4,872 parameters. We conduct extensive experiments and ablation studies on price indices (ID1, ID2, and ID3) using three years of orderbook in high-liquidity (German) and low-liquidity (Austrian) markets. The experimental results demonstrate that OrderFusion consistently outperforms multiple competitive baselines across markets, and ablation studies highlight the contribution of its individual components. The project page is at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/OrderFusion/.

Jochen Stiasny, Georgios S. Misyris, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

We explore the possibility to use physics-informed neural networks to drastically accelerate the solution of ordinary differential-algebraic equations that govern the power system dynamics. When it comes to transient stability assessment, the traditionally applied methods either carry a significant computational burden, require model simplifications, or use overly conservative surrogate models. Conventional neural networks can circumvent these limitations but are faced with high demand of high-quality training datasets, while they ignore the underlying governing equations. Physics-informed neural networks are different: they incorporate the power system differential algebraic equations directly into the neural network training and drastically reduce the need for training data. This paper takes a deep dive into the performance of physics-informed neural networks for power system transient stability assessment. Introducing a new neural network training procedure to facilitate a thorough comparison, we explore how physics-informed neural networks compare with conventional differential-algebraic solvers and classical neural networks in terms of computation time, requirements in data, and prediction accuracy. We illustrate the findings on the Kundur two-area system, and assess the opportunities and challenges of physics-informed neural networks to serve as a transient stability analysis tool, highlighting possible pathways to further develop this method.

Samuel Chevalier, Jochen Stiasny, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

Recent advances in deep learning have allowed neural networks (NNs) to successfully replace traditional numerical solvers in many applications, thus enabling impressive computing gains. One such application is time domain simulation, which is indispensable for the design, analysis and operation of many engineering systems. Simulating dynamical systems with implicit Newton-based solvers is a computationally heavy task, as it requires the solution of a parameterized system of differential and algebraic equations at each time step. A variety of NN-based methodologies have been shown to successfully approximate the trajectories computed by numerical solvers at a fraction of the time. However, few previous works have used NNs to model the numerical solver itself. For the express purpose of accelerating time domain simulation speeds, this paper proposes and explores two complementary alternatives for modeling numerical solvers. First, we use a NN to mimic the linear transformation provided by the inverse Jacobian in a single Newton step. Using this procedure, we evaluate and project the exact, physics-based residual error onto the NN mapping, thus leaving physics ``in the loop''. The resulting tool, termed the Physics-pRojected Neural-Newton Solver (PRoNNS), is able to achieve an extremely high degree of numerical accuracy at speeds which were observed to be up to 31% faster than a Newton-based solver. In the second approach, we model the Newton solver at the heart of an implicit Runge-Kutta integrator as a contracting map iteratively seeking a fixed point on a time domain trajectory. The associated recurrent NN simulation tool, termed the Contracting Neural-Newton Solver (CoNNS), is embedded with training constraints (via CVXPY Layers) which guarantee the mapping provided by the NN satisfies the Banach fixed-point theorem.

Jochen Stiasny, George S. Misyris, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

Varying power-infeed from converter-based generation units introduces great uncertainty on system parameters such as inertia and damping. As a consequence, system operators face increasing challenges in performing dynamic security assessment and taking real-time control actions. Exploiting the widespread deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) and aiming at developing a fast dynamic state and parameter estimation tool, this paper investigates the performance of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) for discovering the frequency dynamics of future power systems. PINNs have the potential to address challenges such as the stronger non-linearities of low-inertia systems, increased measurement noise, and limited availability of data. The estimator is demonstrated in several test cases using a 4-bus system, and compared with state of the art algorithms, such as the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), to assess its performance.