Paul C. Bogdan

Uzay Macar, Paul C. Bogdan, Senthooran Rajamanoharan et al.

Most work interpreting reasoning models studies only a single chain-of-thought (CoT), yet these models define distributions over many possible CoTs. We argue that studying a single sample is inadequate for understanding causal influence and the underlying computation. Though fully specifying this distribution is intractable, it can be understood by sampling. We present case studies using resampling to investigate model decisions. First, when a model states a reason for its action, does that reason actually cause the action? In "agentic misalignment" scenarios, we resample specific sentences to measure their downstream effects. Self-preservation sentences have small causal impact, suggesting they do not meaningfully drive blackmail. Second, are artificial edits to CoT sufficient for steering reasoning? These are common in literature, yet take the model off-policy. Resampling and selecting a completion with the desired property is a principled on-policy alternative. We find off-policy interventions yield small and unstable effects compared to resampling in decision-making tasks. Third, how do we understand the effect of removing a reasoning step when the model may repeat it post-edit? We introduce a resilience metric that repeatedly resamples to prevent similar content from reappearing downstream. Critical planning statements resist removal but have large effects when eliminated. Fourth, since CoT is sometimes "unfaithful", can our methods teach us anything in these settings? Adapting causal mediation analysis, we find that hints that have a causal effect on the output without being explicitly mentioned exert a subtle and cumulative influence on the CoT that persists even if the hint is removed. Overall, studying distributions via resampling enables reliable causal analysis, clearer narratives of model reasoning, and principled CoT interventions.

Paul C. Bogdan, Jack Lindsey

Language models must bind entities to the attributes they possess and maintain several such binding relationships within a context. We study how multiple entities are represented across token positions and whether single tokens can carry bindings for more than one entity. We introduce a multi-slot probing approach that disentangles a single token's residual stream activation to recover information about both the currently described entity and the immediately preceding one. These two kinds of information are encoded in separate and largely orthogonal "current-entity" and "prior-entity" slots. We analyze the functional roles of these slots and find that they serve different purposes. In tandem with the current-entity slot, the prior-entity slot supports relational inferences, such as entity-level induction ("who came after Alice in the story?") and conflict detection between adjacent entities. However, only the current-entity slot is used for explicit factual retrieval questions ("Is anyone in the story tall?" "What is the tall entity's name?") despite these answers being linearly decodable from the prior-entity slot too. Consistent with this limitation, open-weight models perform near chance accuracy at processing syntax that forces two subject-verb-object bindings on a single token (e.g., "Alice prepares and Bob consumes food.") Interestingly, recent frontier models can parse this properly, suggesting they may have developed more sophisticated binding strategies. Overall, our results expose a gap between information that is available in activations and information the model actually uses, and suggest that the current/prior-entity slot structure is a natural substrate for behaviors that require holding two perspectives at once, such as sycophancy and deception.