Richard Müller

Christoph Metzl, Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia, Richard Müller et al.

The focus of nowcasting development is transitioning from physically motivated advection methods to purely data-driven Machine Learning (ML) approaches. Nevertheless, recent work indicates that incorporating advection into the ML value chain has improved skill for radar-based precipitation nowcasts. However, the generality of this approach and the underlying causes remain unexplored. This study investigates the generality by probing the approach on satellite-based thunderstorm nowcasts for the first time. Resorting to a scale argument, we then put forth an explanation when and why skill improvements can be expected. In essence, advection guarantees that thunderstorm patterns relevant for nowcasting are contained in the receptive field at long forecast times. To test our hypotheses, we train ResU-Nets solving segmentation tasks with lightning observations as ground truth. The input of the Baseline Neural Network (BNN) are short time series of multispectral satellite imagery and lightning observations, whereas the Advection-Informed Neural Network (AINN) additionally receives the Lagrangian persistence nowcast of all input channels at the desired forecast time. Overall, we find only a minor skill improvement of the AINN over the BNN when considering fully averaged scores. However, assessing skill conditioned on forecast time and advection speed, we demonstrate that our scale argument correctly predicts the onset of skill improvement of the AINN over the BNN after 2h forecast time. We confirm that, generally, advection becomes gradually more important with longer forecast times and higher advection speeds. Our work accentuates the importance of considering and incorporating the underlying physical scales when designing ML-based forecasting models.

David Baum, Stefan Bechert, Ulrich Eisenecker et al.

Software analytics in augmented reality (AR) is said to have great potential. One reason why this potential is not yet fully exploited may be usability problems of the AR user interfaces. We present an iterative and qualitative usability evaluation with 15 subjects of a state-of-the-art application for software analytics in AR. We could identify and resolve numerous usability issues. Most of them were caused by applying conventional user interface elements, such as dialog windows, buttons, and scrollbars. The used city visualization, however, did not cause any usability issues. Therefore, we argue that future work should focus on making conventional user interface elements in AR obsolete by integrating their functionality into the immersive visualization.

David Baum, Pascal Kovacs, Ulrich Eisenecker et al.

The optimization of information visualizations is time consuming and expensive. To reduce this we propose an improvement of existing optimization approaches based on user-centered design, focusing on readability, comprehensibility, and user satisfaction as optimization goals. The changes comprise (1) a separate optimization of user interface and representation, (2) a fully automated evaluation of the representation, and (3) qualitative user studies for simultaneously creating and evaluating interface variants. On the basis of these results we are able to find a local optimum of an information visualization in an efficient way.

Christian Schön, Jens Dittrich, Richard Müller

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critical threshold is reached. Recent progress in data science however demonstrates that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields in science, especially in areas dealing with large datasets. We therefore present a new approach to the problem of predicting thunderstorms based on machine learning. The core idea of our work is to use the error of two-dimensional optical flow algorithms applied to images of meteorological satellites as a feature for machine learning models. We interpret that optical flow error as an indication of convection potentially leading to thunderstorms and lightning. To factor in spatial proximity we use various manual convolution steps. We also consider effects such as the time of day or the geographic location. We train different tree classifier models as well as a neural network to predict lightning within the next few hours (called nowcasting in meteorology) based on these features. In our evaluation section we compare the predictive power of the different models and the impact of different features on the classification result. Our results show a high accuracy of 96% for predictions over the next 15 minutes which slightly decreases with increasing forecast period but still remains above 83% for forecasts of up to five hours. The high false positive rate of nearly 6% however needs further investigation to allow for an operational use of our approach.

David Baum, Jens Dietrich, Craig Anslow et al.

Software systems are not static, they have to undergo frequent changes to stay fit for purpose, and in the process of doing so, their complexity increases. It has been observed that this process often leads to the erosion of the systems design and architecture and with it, the decline of many desirable quality attributes, such as maintainability. This process can be captured in terms of antipatterns-atomic violations of widely accepted design principles. We present a visualisation that exposes the design of evolving Java programs, highlighting instances of selected antipatterns including their emergence and cancerous growth. This visualisation assists software engineers and architects in assessing, tracing and therefore combating design erosion. We evaluated the effectiveness of the visualisation in four case studies with ten participants.