Nicolas Bennett

Drago Plečko, Nicolas Bennett, Nicolai Meinshausen

Machine learning algorithms are useful for various predictions tasks, but they can also learn how to discriminate, based on gender, race or other sensitive attributes. This realization gave rise to the field of fair machine learning, which aims to measure and mitigate such algorithmic bias. This manuscript describes the R-package fairadapt, which implements a causal inference pre-processing method. By making use of a causal graphical model and the observed data, the method can be used to address hypothetical questions of the form "What would my salary have been, had I been of a different gender/race?". Such individual level counterfactual reasoning can help eliminate discrimination and help justify fair decisions. We also discuss appropriate relaxations which assume certain causal pathways from the sensitive attribute to the outcome are not discriminatory.

Michael Moor, Nicolas Bennet, Drago Plecko et al.

Despite decades of clinical research, sepsis remains a global public health crisis with high mortality, and morbidity. Currently, when sepsis is detected and the underlying pathogen is identified, organ damage may have already progressed to irreversible stages. Effective sepsis management is therefore highly time-sensitive. By systematically analysing trends in the plethora of clinical data available in the intensive care unit (ICU), an early prediction of sepsis could lead to earlier pathogen identification, resistance testing, and effective antibiotic and supportive treatment, and thereby become a life-saving measure. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) system for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Our analysis represents the largest multi-national, multi-centre in-ICU study for sepsis prediction using ML to date. Our dataset contains $156,309$ unique ICU admissions, which represent a refined and harmonised subset of five large ICU databases originating from three countries. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis label annotations, amounting to $26,734$ ($17.1\%$) septic stays. We compared our approach, a deep self-attention model, to several clinical baselines as well as ML baselines and performed an extensive internal and external validation within and across databases. On average, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUROC of $0.847 \pm 0.050$ (internal out-of sample validation) and $0.761 \pm 0.052$ (external validation). For a harmonised prevalence of $17\%$, at $80\%$ recall our model detects septic patients with $39\%$ precision 3.7 hours in advance.