Nikita Dhawan

Nikita Dhawan, Leonardo Cotta, Karen Ullrich et al. · deepmind, utoronto

Knowing the effect of an intervention is critical for human decision-making, but current approaches for causal effect estimation rely on manual data collection and structuring, regardless of the causal assumptions. This increases both the cost and time-to-completion for studies. We show how large, diverse observational text data can be mined with large language models (LLMs) to produce inexpensive causal effect estimates under appropriate causal assumptions. We introduce NATURAL, a novel family of causal effect estimators built with LLMs that operate over datasets of unstructured text. Our estimators use LLM conditional distributions (over variables of interest, given the text data) to assist in the computation of classical estimators of causal effect. We overcome a number of technical challenges to realize this idea, such as automating data curation and using LLMs to impute missing information. We prepare six (two synthetic and four real) observational datasets, paired with corresponding ground truth in the form of randomized trials, which we used to systematically evaluate each step of our pipeline. NATURAL estimators demonstrate remarkable performance, yielding causal effect estimates that fall within 3 percentage points of their ground truth counterparts, including on real-world Phase 3/4 clinical trials. Our results suggest that unstructured text data is a rich source of causal effect information, and NATURAL is a first step towards an automated pipeline to tap this resource.

Nikita Dhawan, Nicole Mitchell, Zachary Charles et al.

The federated learning paradigm has motivated the development of methods for aggregating multiple client updates into a global server model, without sharing client data. Many federated learning algorithms, including the canonical Federated Averaging (FedAvg), take a direct (possibly weighted) average of the client parameter updates, motivated by results in distributed optimization. In this work, we adopt a function space perspective and propose a new algorithm, FedFish, that aggregates local approximations to the functions learned by clients, using an estimate based on their Fisher information. We evaluate FedFish on realistic, large-scale cross-device benchmarks. While the performance of FedAvg can suffer as client models drift further apart, we demonstrate that FedFish is more robust to longer local training. Our evaluation across several settings in image and language benchmarks shows that FedFish outperforms FedAvg as local training epochs increase. Further, FedFish results in global networks that are more amenable to efficient personalization via local fine-tuning on the same or shifted data distributions. For instance, federated pretraining on the C4 dataset, followed by few-shot personalization on Stack Overflow, results in a 7% improvement in next-token prediction by FedFish over FedAvg.

Nikita Dhawan, Arnav Paruthi, Andrew Kim et al.

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains. However, classical causal estimators tend to assume that all possible interventions are observed, which is infeasible when interventions vary widely, for instance, in the space of all text strings. We adapt a well-known approach of recasting causal inference as a learning problem, to address high-dimensional treatment spaces. Specifically, under standard assumptions like no unobserved confounding, we show that causal error decomposes into a series of moment-balancing errors of increasing order, and design objectives that directly improve causal estimation. We also show how to project the effect of a high-dimensional treatment onto lower-dimensional treatment attributes, which allows a single model to answer several causal questions without additional attribute-specific training. We empirically evaluate our estimators in settings with high-dimensional continuous, discrete, and text treatments, the last of which used a semi-synthetic dataset of Amazon Reviews. Our experiments demonstrate the benefit of higher-order balance error optimization and competitive performance of projected causal estimates with attribute-specific estimators.

Nikita Dhawan, Daniel Shen, Leonardo Cotta et al.

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying assumptions. Existing frameworks for sensitivity analysis are concerned with worst-case changes in assumptions. In this work, we argue that using such pessimistic criteria can often become uninformative or lead to conclusions contradicting our prior knowledge about the world. To demonstrate this claim, we generalize the recent s-value framework (Gupta & Rothenhäusler, 2023) to estimate the sensitivity of three different common assumptions in causal inference. Empirically, we find that, indeed, worst-case conclusions about sensitivity can rely on unrealistic changes in the data-generating process. To overcome this, we extend the s-value framework with a new sensitivity analysis criterion: Bayesian Sensitivity Value (BSV), which computes the expected sensitivity of an estimate to assumption violations under priors constructed from real-world evidence. We use Monte Carlo approximations to estimate this quantity and illustrate its applicability in an observational study on the effect of diabetes treatments on weight loss.

Marvin Zhang, Henrik Marklund, Nikita Dhawan et al.

A fundamental assumption of most machine learning algorithms is that the training and test data are drawn from the same underlying distribution. However, this assumption is violated in almost all practical applications: machine learning systems are regularly tested under distribution shift, due to changing temporal correlations, atypical end users, or other factors. In this work, we consider the problem setting of domain generalization, where the training data are structured into domains and there may be multiple test time shifts, corresponding to new domains or domain distributions. Most prior methods aim to learn a single robust model or invariant feature space that performs well on all domains. In contrast, we aim to learn models that adapt at test time to domain shift using unlabeled test points. Our primary contribution is to introduce the framework of adaptive risk minimization (ARM), in which models are directly optimized for effective adaptation to shift by learning to adapt on the training domains. Compared to prior methods for robustness, invariance, and adaptation, ARM methods provide performance gains of 1-4% test accuracy on a number of image classification problems exhibiting domain shift.