Lenz Belzner

Kyrill Schmid, Lenz Belzner, Robert Müller et al.

Some of the most relevant future applications of multi-agent systems like autonomous driving or factories as a service display mixed-motive scenarios, where agents might have conflicting goals. In these settings agents are likely to learn undesirable outcomes in terms of cooperation under independent learning, such as overly greedy behavior. Motivated from real world societies, in this work we propose to utilize market forces to provide incentives for agents to become cooperative. As demonstrated in an iterated version of the Prisoner's Dilemma, the proposed market formulation can change the dynamics of the game to consistently learn cooperative policies. Further we evaluate our approach in spatially and temporally extended settings for varying numbers of agents. We empirically find that the presence of markets can improve both the overall result and agent individual returns via their trading activities.

Lenz Belzner, Thomas Gabor

We propose distributed online open loop planning (DOOLP), a general framework for online multiagent coordination and decision making under uncertainty. DOOLP is based on online heuristic search in the space defined by a generative model of the domain dynamics, which is exploited by agents to simulate and evaluate the consequences of their potential choices. We also propose distributed online Thompson sampling (DOTS) as an effective instantiation of the DOOLP framework. DOTS models sequences of agent choices by concatenating a number of multiarmed bandits for each agent and uses Thompson sampling for dealing with action value uncertainty. The Bayesian approach underlying Thompson sampling allows to effectively model and estimate uncertainty about (a) own action values and (b) other agents' behavior. This approach yields a principled and statistically sound solution to the exploration-exploitation dilemma when exploring large search spaces with limited resources. We implemented DOTS in a smart factory case study with positive empirical results. We observed effective, robust and scalable planning and coordination capabilities even when only searching a fraction of the potential search space.

Lenz Belzner, Martin Wirsing

We propose to leverage epistemic uncertainty about constraint satisfaction of a reinforcement learner in safety critical domains. We introduce a framework for specification of requirements for reinforcement learners in constrained settings, including confidence about results. We show that an agent's confidence in constraint satisfaction provides a useful signal for balancing optimization and safety in the learning process.

Thomas Gabor, Leo Sünkel, Fabian Ritz et al.

We discuss the synergetic connection between quantum computing and artificial intelligence. After surveying current approaches to quantum artificial intelligence and relating them to a formal model for machine learning processes, we deduce four major challenges for the future of quantum artificial intelligence: (i) Replace iterative training with faster quantum algorithms, (ii) distill the experience of larger amounts of data into the training process, (iii) allow quantum and classical components to be easily combined and exchanged, and (iv) build tools to thoroughly analyze whether observed benefits really stem from quantum properties of the algorithm.

Carsten Hahn, Thomy Phan, Thomas Gabor et al.

In nature, flocking or swarm behavior is observed in many species as it has beneficial properties like reducing the probability of being caught by a predator. In this paper, we propose SELFish (Swarm Emergent Learning Fish), an approach with multiple autonomous agents which can freely move in a continuous space with the objective to avoid being caught by a present predator. The predator has the property that it might get distracted by multiple possible preys in its vicinity. We show that this property in interaction with self-interested agents which are trained with reinforcement learning to solely survive as long as possible leads to flocking behavior similar to Boids, a common simulation for flocking behavior. Furthermore we present interesting insights in the swarming behavior and in the process of agents being caught in our modeled environment.

Thomy Phan, Lenz Belzner, Marie Kiermeier et al.

State-of-the-art approaches to partially observable planning like POMCP are based on stochastic tree search. While these approaches are computationally efficient, they may still construct search trees of considerable size, which could limit the performance due to restricted memory resources. In this paper, we propose Partially Observable Stacked Thompson Sampling (POSTS), a memory bounded approach to open-loop planning in large POMDPs, which optimizes a fixed size stack of Thompson Sampling bandits. We empirically evaluate POSTS in four large benchmark problems and compare its performance with different tree-based approaches. We show that POSTS achieves competitive performance compared to tree-based open-loop planning and offers a performance-memory tradeoff, making it suitable for partially observable planning with highly restricted computational and memory resources.

Thomy Phan, Kyrill Schmid, Lenz Belzner et al.

Decision making in multi-agent systems (MAS) is a great challenge due to enormous state and joint action spaces as well as uncertainty, making centralized control generally infeasible. Decentralized control offers better scalability and robustness but requires mechanisms to coordinate on joint tasks and to avoid conflicts. Common approaches to learn decentralized policies for cooperative MAS suffer from non-stationarity and lacking credit assignment, which can lead to unstable and uncoordinated behavior in complex environments. In this paper, we propose Strong Emergent Policy approximation (STEP), a scalable approach to learn strong decentralized policies for cooperative MAS with a distributed variant of policy iteration. For that, we use function approximation to learn from action recommendations of a decentralized multi-agent planning algorithm. STEP combines decentralized multi-agent planning with centralized learning, only requiring a generative model for distributed black box optimization. We experimentally evaluate STEP in two challenging and stochastic domains with large state and joint action spaces and show that STEP is able to learn stronger policies than standard multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms, when combining multi-agent open-loop planning with centralized function approximation. The learned policies can be reintegrated into the multi-agent planning process to further improve performance.

Andreas Sedlmeier, Thomas Gabor, Thomy Phan et al.

We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep reinforcement learning. In a value based reinforcement learning setting, we propose to use uncertainty estimation techniques directly on the agent's value estimating neural network to detect OOD samples. The focus of our work lies in analyzing the suitability of approximate Bayesian inference methods and related ensembling techniques that generate uncertainty estimates. Although prior work has shown that dropout-based variational inference techniques and bootstrap-based approaches can be used to model epistemic uncertainty, the suitability for detecting OOD samples in deep reinforcement learning remains an open question. Our results show that uncertainty estimation can be used to differentiate in- from out-of-distribution samples. Over the complete training process of the reinforcement learning agents, bootstrap-based approaches tend to produce more reliable epistemic uncertainty estimates, when compared to dropout-based approaches.

Andre Ebert, Michael Till Beck, Andy Mattausch et al.

Smartphone applications designed to track human motion in combination with wearable sensors, e.g., during physical exercising, raised huge attention recently. Commonly, they provide quantitative services, such as personalized training instructions or the counting of distances. But qualitative monitoring and assessment is still missing, e.g., to detect malpositions, to prevent injuries, or to optimize training success. We address this issue by presenting a concept for qualitative as well as generic assessment of recurrent human motion by processing multi-dimensional, continuous time series tracked with motion sensors. Therefore, our segmentation procedure extracts individual events of specific length and we propose expressive features to accomplish a qualitative motion assessment by supervised classification. We verified our approach within a comprehensive study encompassing 27 athletes undertaking different body weight exercises. We are able to recognize six different exercise types with a success rate of 100% and to assess them qualitatively with an average success rate of 99.3%.

Lenz Belzner, Thomas Gabor

We introduce Stacked Thompson Bandits (STB) for efficiently generating plans that are likely to satisfy a given bounded temporal logic requirement. STB uses a simulation for evaluation of plans, and takes a Bayesian approach to using the resulting information to guide its search. In particular, we show that stacking multiarmed bandits and using Thompson sampling to guide the action selection process for each bandit enables STB to generate plans that satisfy requirements with a high probability while only searching a fraction of the search space.

Lenz Belzner, Thomas Gabor

Machine learning enables systems to build and update domain models based on runtime observations. In this paper, we study statistical model checking and runtime verification for systems with this ability. Two challenges arise: (1) Models built from limited runtime data yield uncertainty to be dealt with. (2) There is no definition of satisfaction w.r.t. uncertain hypotheses. We propose such a definition of subjective satisfaction based on recently introduced satisfaction functions. We also propose the BV algorithm as a Bayesian solution to runtime verification of subjective satisfaction under model uncertainty. BV provides user-definable stochastic bounds for type I and II errors. We discuss empirical results from an example application to illustrate our ideas.

Lenz Belzner

This paper proposes Monte Carlo Action Programming, a programming language framework for autonomous systems that act in large probabilistic state spaces with high branching factors. It comprises formal syntax and semantics of a nondeterministic action programming language. The language is interpreted stochastically via Monte Carlo Tree Search. Effectiveness of the approach is shown empirically.