Michael Fauß

Michael Fauss, H. Vincent Poor, Abdelhak M. Zoubir

A nonparametric variant of the Kiefer-Weiss problem is proposed and solved. The objective is to minimize a weighted sum of the error probabilities of a binary sequential test subject to a constraint on its maximum expected sample size. This maximum is taken over all possible probability distributions on the given sequence space. First, it is shown that the nonparametric Kiefer-Weiss problem can be reduced to an optimal stopping problem. Then, the optimal stopping policy is derived under the assumption that at most k uses of randomization are permitted during any run of the test. The solution to the original problem is then obtained by letting k go to infinity. The optimal cost function is shown to be the solution of a nonlinear Bellman equation. The corresponding optimal stopping policy is shown to be based on a two-dimensional test statistic, with one component tracking the likelihood ratio and the other one tracking the expected remaining sample size. Critically, the stopping policy uses randomization to increase the remaining expected sample size for some runs, while stopping early for others. The optimal randomization rule is shown to be determined by a function that maps the likelihood ratio to an integer-valued sample size. Two approximations of this function are proposed that can be evaluated easily in practice. The results are illustrated with two numerical examples of nonparametric Kiefer-Weiss tests, one for a shift in the success probability of a Bernoulli distribution, and one for a shift in the mean of a normal distribution.

Dominik Reinhard, Michael Fauß, Abdelhak M. Zoubir

We investigate the problem of jointly testing a pair of composite hypotheses and, depending on the test result, estimating a random parameter under distributional uncertainties. Specifically, it is assumed that the distribution of the data given the parameter of interest, is subject to uncertainty. Both, a Bayesian formulation and a Neyman-Pearson-like formulation, are considered. It is shown that the optimal policy induces an $f$-similarity that must be maximized to identify the least favorable distributions. Besides the general results, the implementation is investigated using a band-type uncertainty model. For designing the minimax procedures, existing algorithms are modified to increase convergence speed while maintaining numerical stability. The proposed theory is supplemented by numerical results for both formulations.

Yang Zhong, Jiangang Hao, Michael Fauss et al.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has enabled the generation of coherent essays, making AI-assisted writing increasingly common in educational and professional settings. Using large-scale empirical data, we examine and benchmark the characteristics and quality of essays generated by popular LLMs and discuss their implications for two key components of writing assessments: automated scoring and academic integrity. Our findings highlight limitations in existing automated scoring systems, such as e-rater, when applied to essays generated or heavily influenced by AI, and identify areas for improvement, including the development of new features to capture deeper thinking and recalibrating feature weights. Despite growing concerns that the increasing variety of LLMs may undermine the feasibility of detecting AI-generated essays, our results show that detectors trained on essays generated from one model can often identify texts from others with high accuracy, suggesting that effective detection could remain manageable in practice.

Wei Cao, Alex Dytso, Michael Fauß et al.

This paper considers the problem of estimation of the Fisher information for location from a random sample of size $n$. First, an estimator proposed by Bhattacharya is revisited and improved convergence rates are derived. Second, a new estimator, termed a clipped estimator, is proposed. Superior upper bounds on the rates of convergence can be shown for the new estimator compared to the Bhattacharya estimator, albeit with different regularity conditions. Third, both of the estimators are evaluated for the practically relevant case of a random variable contaminated by Gaussian noise. Moreover, using Brown's identity, which relates the Fisher information and the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) in Gaussian noise, two corresponding consistent estimators for the MMSE are proposed. Simulation examples for the Bhattacharya estimator and the clipped estimator as well as the MMSE estimators are presented. The examples demonstrate that the clipped estimator can significantly reduce the required sample size to guarantee a specific confidence interval compared to the Bhattacharya estimator.