Yoav Wald

Aahlad Puli, Lily Zhang, Yoav Wald et al.

Common explanations for shortcut learning assume that the shortcut improves prediction under the training distribution but not in the test distribution. Thus, models trained via the typical gradient-based optimization of cross-entropy, which we call default-ERM, utilize the shortcut. However, even when the stable feature determines the label in the training distribution and the shortcut does not provide any additional information, like in perception tasks, default-ERM still exhibits shortcut learning. Why are such solutions preferred when the loss for default-ERM can be driven to zero using the stable feature alone? By studying a linear perception task, we show that default-ERM's preference for maximizing the margin leads to models that depend more on the shortcut than the stable feature, even without overparameterization. This insight suggests that default-ERM's implicit inductive bias towards max-margin is unsuitable for perception tasks. Instead, we develop an inductive bias toward uniform margins and show that this bias guarantees dependence only on the perfect stable feature in the linear perception task. We develop loss functions that encourage uniform-margin solutions, called margin control (MARG-CTRL). MARG-CTRL mitigates shortcut learning on a variety of vision and language tasks, showing that better inductive biases can remove the need for expensive two-stage shortcut-mitigating methods in perception tasks.

Amir Feder, Yoav Wald, Claudia Shi et al.

The reliance of text classifiers on spurious correlations can lead to poor generalization at deployment, raising concerns about their use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. In this work, we propose to use counterfactual data augmentation, guided by knowledge of the causal structure of the data, to simulate interventions on spurious features and to learn more robust text classifiers. We show that this strategy is appropriate in prediction problems where the label is spuriously correlated with an attribute. Under the assumptions of such problems, we discuss the favorable sample complexity of counterfactual data augmentation, compared to importance re-weighting. Pragmatically, we match examples using auxiliary data, based on diff-in-diff methodology, and use a large language model (LLM) to represent a conditional probability of text. Through extensive experimentation on learning caregiver-invariant predictors of clinical diagnoses from medical narratives and on semi-synthetic data, we demonstrate that our method for simulating interventions improves out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy compared to baseline invariant learning algorithms.

Aahlad Puli, Nitish Joshi, Yoav Wald et al.

In prediction tasks, there exist features that are related to the label in the same way across different settings for that task; these are semantic features or semantics. Features with varying relationships to the label are nuisances. For example, in detecting cows from natural images, the shape of the head is semantic but because images of cows often have grass backgrounds but not always, the background is a nuisance. Models that exploit nuisance-label relationships face performance degradation when these relationships change. Building models robust to such changes requires additional knowledge beyond samples of the features and labels. For example, existing work uses annotations of nuisances or assumes ERM-trained models depend on nuisances. Approaches to integrate new kinds of additional knowledge enlarge the settings where robust models can be built. We develop an approach to use knowledge about the semantics by corrupting them in data, and then using the corrupted data to produce models which identify correlations between nuisances and the label. Once these correlations are identified, they can be used to adjust for where nuisances drive predictions. We study semantic corruptions in powering different spurious-correlation avoiding methods on multiple out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks like classifying waterbirds, natural language inference (NLI), and detecting cardiomegaly in chest X-rays.

Amir Feder, Guy Horowitz, Yoav Wald et al.

Accurately predicting the relevance of items to users is crucial to the success of many social platforms. Conventional approaches train models on logged historical data; but recommendation systems, media services, and online marketplaces all exhibit a constant influx of new content -- making relevancy a moving target, to which standard predictive models are not robust. In this paper, we propose a learning framework for relevance prediction that is robust to changes in the data distribution. Our key observation is that robustness can be obtained by accounting for how users causally perceive the environment. We model users as boundedly-rational decision makers whose causal beliefs are encoded by a causal graph, and show how minimal information regarding the graph can be used to contend with distributional changes. Experiments in multiple settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Yoav Wald, Gal Yona, Uri Shalit et al.

Learned classifiers should often possess certain invariance properties meant to encourage fairness, robustness, or out-of-distribution generalization. However, multiple recent works empirically demonstrate that common invariance-inducing regularizers are ineffective in the over-parameterized regime, in which classifiers perfectly fit (i.e. interpolate) the training data. This suggests that the phenomenon of "benign overfitting", in which models generalize well despite interpolating, might not favorably extend to settings in which robustness or fairness are desirable. In this work we provide a theoretical justification for these observations. We prove that -- even in the simplest of settings -- any interpolating learning rule (with arbitrarily small margin) will not satisfy these invariance properties. We then propose and analyze an algorithm that -- in the same setting -- successfully learns a non-interpolating classifier that is provably invariant. We validate our theoretical observations on simulated data and the Waterbirds dataset.

Shravan Chaudhari, Yoav Wald, Suchi Saria

As we deploy machine learning systems in the real world, a core challenge is to maintain a model that is performant even as the data shifts. Such shifts can take many forms: new classes may emerge that were absent during training, a problem known as open-set recognition, and the distribution of known categories may change. Guarantees on open-set recognition are mostly derived under the assumption that the distribution of known classes, which we call \emph{the background distribution}, is fixed. In this paper we develop \ours{}, a method that is guaranteed to solve open-set recognition even in the challenging case where the background distribution shifts. We prove that the method works under benign assumptions that the novel class is separable from the non-novel classes, and provide theoretical guarantees that it outperforms a representative baseline in a simplified overparameterized setting. We develop techniques to make \ours{} scalable and robust, and perform comprehensive empirical evaluations on image and text data. The results show that \ours{} significantly outperforms existing open-set recognition methods under background shift. Moreover, we provide new insights into how factors such as the size of the novel class influences performance, an aspect that has not been extensively explored in prior work.

Gina Wong, Joshua Gleason, Rama Chellappa et al.

Learning models whose predictions are invariant under multiple environments is a promising approach for out-of-distribution generalization. Such models are trained to extract features $X_{\text{inv}}$ where the conditional distribution $Y \mid X_{\text{inv}}$ of the label given the extracted features does not change across environments. Invariant models are also supposed to generalize to shifts in the marginal distribution $p(X_{\text{inv}})$ of the extracted features $X_{\text{inv}}$, a type of shift we call an $\textit{invariant covariate shift}$. However, we show that proposed methods for learning invariant models underperform under invariant covariate shift, either failing to learn invariant models$\unicode{x2014}$even for data generated from simple and well-studied linear-Gaussian models$\unicode{x2014}$or having poor finite-sample performance. To alleviate these problems, we propose $\textit{weighted risk invariance}$ (WRI). Our framework is based on imposing invariance of the loss across environments subject to appropriate reweightings of the training examples. We show that WRI provably learns invariant models, i.e. discards spurious correlations, in linear-Gaussian settings. We propose a practical algorithm to implement WRI by learning the density $p(X_{\text{inv}})$ and the model parameters simultaneously, and we demonstrate empirically that WRI outperforms previous invariant learning methods under invariant covariate shift.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shijun Li, Yoav Wald et al.

Multimodal irregular time series (MITS) consist of asynchronous and irregularly sampled observations from heterogeneous numerical and textual channels. In healthcare, for example, patients' electronic health records (EHR) include irregular lab measurements and clinical notes. The irregular timing and channel patterns of observations carry predictive signal alongside the numerical values and textual content. LLMs are natural candidates for processing such heterogeneous data, given their extensive pretrained knowledge spanning textual and numerical domains. We introduce MILM (Multimodal Irregular time series Language Model), which represents MITS as time-ordered triplets in Extensible Markup Language (XML) format and fine-tunes an LLM through a two-stage strategy for MITS classification. The first stage trains on value-redacted MITS to predict from sampling patterns alone, and the second stage trains on full MITS to jointly model sampling patterns and observed values. Our two-stage model (MILM-2S) and its single-stage counterpart (MILM-Direct) achieve the best and second-best average performance on multiple EHR datasets. Further value redaction evaluations confirm that sampling patterns carry predictive signal and that MILM-2S learns to exploit them. In the value pending evaluation we introduce, where some values are unavailable at prediction time, MILM-2S outperforms MILM-Direct by a larger margin compared to standard evaluation. For MILM-2S, preserving the time and channel of value-pending observations as additional sampling information further improves in-hospital mortality prediction.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shravan Chaudhari, Yoav Wald et al.

In real-world graph data, distribution shifts can manifest in various ways, such as the emergence of new categories and changes in the relative proportions of existing categories. It is often important to detect nodes of novel categories under such distribution shifts for safety or insight discovery purposes. We introduce a new approach, Recall-Constrained Optimization with Selective Link Prediction (RECO-SLIP), to detect nodes belonging to novel categories in attributed graphs under subpopulation shifts. By integrating a recall-constrained learning framework with a sample-efficient link prediction mechanism, RECO-SLIP addresses the dual challenges of resilience against subpopulation shifts and the effective exploitation of graph structure. Our extensive empirical evaluation across multiple graph datasets demonstrates the superior performance of RECO-SLIP over existing methods. The experimental code is available at https://github.com/hsinghuan/novel-node-category-detection.

Hsing-Huan Chung, Shravan Chaudhari, Xing Han et al.

Dynamic graph learning is essential for applications involving temporal networks and requires effective modeling of temporal relationships. Seminal attention-based models like TGAT and DyGFormer rely on sinusoidal time encoders to capture temporal dependencies between edge events. Prior work justified sinusoidal encodings because their inner products depend on the time spans between events, which are crucial features for modeling inter-event relations. However, sinusoidal encodings inherently lose temporal information due to their many-to-one nature and therefore require high dimensions. In this paper, we rigorously study a simpler alternative: the linear time encoder, which avoids temporal information loss caused by sinusoidal functions and reduces the need for high-dimensional time encoders. We show that the self-attention mechanism can effectively learn to compute time spans between events from linear time encodings and extract relevant temporal patterns. Through extensive experiments on six dynamic graph datasets, we demonstrate that the linear time encoder improves the performance of TGAT and DyGFormer in most cases. Moreover, the linear time encoder can lead to significant savings in model parameters with minimal performance loss. For example, compared to a 100-dimensional sinusoidal time encoder, TGAT with a 2-dimensional linear time encoder saves 43% of parameters and achieves higher average precision on five datasets. While both encoders can be used simultaneously, our study highlights the often-overlooked advantages of linear time features in modern dynamic graph models. These findings can positively impact the design choices of various dynamic graph learning architectures and eventually benefit temporal network applications such as recommender systems, communication networks, and traffic forecasting.

Minhui Zhang, Prahar Ijner, Yoav Wald et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit systematic errors on specific subsets of data, known as error slices. For instance, a slice can correspond to a certain demographic, where a model does poorly in identifying toxic comments regarding that demographic. Identifying error slices is crucial to understanding and improving models, but it is also challenging. An appealing approach to reduce the amount of manual annotation required is to actively group errors that are likely to belong to the same slice, while using limited access to an annotator to verify whether the chosen samples share the same pattern of model mistake. In this paper, we formalize this approach as Active Slice Discovery and explore it empirically on a problem of discovering human-defined slices in toxicity classification. We examine the efficacy of active slice discovery under different choices of feature representations and active learning algorithms. On several slices, we find that uncertainty-based active learning algorithms are most effective, achieving competitive accuracy using 2-10% of the available slice membership information, while significantly outperforming baselines.

Yoav Wald, Mark Goldstein, Yonathan Efroni et al.

Problems in fields such as healthcare, robotics, and finance requires reasoning about the value both of what decision or action to take and when to take it. The prevailing hope is that artificial intelligence will support such decisions by estimating the causal effect of policies such as how to treat patients or how to allocate resources over time. However, existing methods for estimating the effect of a policy struggle with \emph{irregular time}. They either discretize time, or disregard the effect of timing policies. We present a new deep-Q algorithm that estimates the effect of both when and what to do called Earliest Disagreement Q-Evaluation (EDQ). EDQ makes use of recursion for the Q-function that is compatible with flexible sequence models, such as transformers. EDQ provides accurate estimates under standard assumptions. We validate the approach through experiments on survival time and tumor growth tasks.

Oran Lang, Yossi Gandelsman, Michal Yarom et al.

Image classification models can depend on multiple different semantic attributes of the image. An explanation of the decision of the classifier needs to both discover and visualize these properties. Here we present StylEx, a method for doing this, by training a generative model to specifically explain multiple attributes that underlie classifier decisions. A natural source for such attributes is the StyleSpace of StyleGAN, which is known to generate semantically meaningful dimensions in the image. However, because standard GAN training is not dependent on the classifier, it may not represent these attributes which are important for the classifier decision, and the dimensions of StyleSpace may represent irrelevant attributes. To overcome this, we propose a training procedure for a StyleGAN, which incorporates the classifier model, in order to learn a classifier-specific StyleSpace. Explanatory attributes are then selected from this space. These can be used to visualize the effect of changing multiple attributes per image, thus providing image-specific explanations. We apply StylEx to multiple domains, including animals, leaves, faces and retinal images. For these, we show how an image can be modified in different ways to change its classifier output. Our results show that the method finds attributes that align well with semantic ones, generate meaningful image-specific explanations, and are human-interpretable as measured in user-studies.

Yoav Wald, Amir Feder, Daniel Greenfeld et al.

Out-of-domain (OOD) generalization is a significant challenge for machine learning models. Many techniques have been proposed to overcome this challenge, often focused on learning models with certain invariance properties. In this work, we draw a link between OOD performance and model calibration, arguing that calibration across multiple domains can be viewed as a special case of an invariant representation leading to better OOD generalization. Specifically, we show that under certain conditions, models which achieve \emph{multi-domain calibration} are provably free of spurious correlations. This leads us to propose multi-domain calibration as a measurable and trainable surrogate for the OOD performance of a classifier. We therefore introduce methods that are easy to apply and allow practitioners to improve multi-domain calibration by training or modifying an existing model, leading to better performance on unseen domains. Using four datasets from the recently proposed WILDS OOD benchmark, as well as the Colored MNIST dataset, we demonstrate that training or tuning models so they are calibrated across multiple domains leads to significantly improved performance on unseen test domains. We believe this intriguing connection between calibration and OOD generalization is promising from both a practical and theoretical point of view.

Yoav Wald, Amir Globerson

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks is learning a model of conditional probabilities. However, these models are often based on strong assumptions (e.g., log-linear models), and hence their estimate of conditional probabilities is not robust and is highly dependent on the validity of their assumptions. Here we propose a framework for reasoning about conditional probabilities without assuming anything about the underlying distributions, except knowledge of their second order marginals, which can be estimated from data. We show how this setting leads to guaranteed bounds on conditional probabilities, which can be calculated efficiently in a variety of settings, including structured-prediction. Finally, we apply them to semi-supervised deep learning, obtaining results competitive with variational autoencoders.