Julien Siems

Jakob Weissteiner, Jakob Heiss, Julien Siems et al. · berkeley

We study the combinatorial assignment domain, which includes combinatorial auctions and course allocation. The main challenge in this domain is that the bundle space grows exponentially in the number of items. To address this, several papers have recently proposed machine learning-based preference elicitation algorithms that aim to elicit only the most important information from agents. However, the main shortcoming of this prior work is that it does not model a mechanism's uncertainty over values for not yet elicited bundles. In this paper, we address this shortcoming by presenting a Bayesian optimization-based combinatorial assignment (BOCA) mechanism. Our key technical contribution is to integrate a method for capturing model uncertainty into an iterative combinatorial auction mechanism. Concretely, we design a new method for estimating an upper uncertainty bound that can be used to define an acquisition function to determine the next query to the agents. This enables the mechanism to properly explore (and not just exploit) the bundle space during its preference elicitation phase. We run computational experiments in several spectrum auction domains to evaluate BOCA's performance. Our results show that BOCA achieves higher allocative efficiency than state-of-the-art approaches.

Julien Siems, Maximilian Schambach, Sebastian Schulze et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of supply chains and the role of digital management to react to dynamic changes in the environment. In this work, we focus on developing dynamic inventory ordering policies for a multi-echelon, i.e. multi-stage, supply chain. Traditional inventory optimization methods aim to determine a static reordering policy. Thus, these policies are not able to adjust to dynamic changes such as those observed during the COVID-19 crisis. On the other hand, conventional strategies offer the advantage of being interpretable, which is a crucial feature for supply chain managers in order to communicate decisions to their stakeholders. To address this limitation, we propose an interpretable reinforcement learning approach that aims to be as interpretable as the traditional static policies while being as flexible and environment-agnostic as other deep learning-based reinforcement learning solutions. We propose to use Neural Additive Models as an interpretable dynamic policy of a reinforcement learning agent, showing that this approach is competitive with a standard full connected policy. Finally, we use the interpretability property to gain insights into a complex ordering strategy for a simple, linear three-echelon inventory supply chain.

Julien Siems, Riccardo Grazzi, Kirill Kalinin et al.

Over the last years, state-tracking tasks, particularly permutation composition, have become a testbed to understand the limits of sequence models architectures like Transformers and RNNs (linear and non-linear). However, these are often sequence-to-sequence tasks: learning to map actions (permutations) to states, which is incompatible with the next-token prediction setting commonly used to train language models. We address this gap by converting permutation composition into code via REPL traces that interleave state-reveals through prints and variable transformations. We show that linear RNNs capable of state-tracking excel also in this setting, while Transformers still fail. Motivated by this representation, we investigate why tracking states in code is generally difficult: actions are not always fully observable. We frame this as tracking the state of a probabilistic finite-state automaton with deterministic state reveals and show that linear RNNs can be worse than non-linear RNNs at tracking states in this setup.

Sathya Kamesh Bhethanabhotla, Omar Swelam, Julien Siems et al.

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

Léo Grinsztajn, Klemens Flöge, Oscar Key et al.

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

Vladyslav Moroshan, Julien Siems, Arber Zela et al.

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents TempoPFN, a univariate time series foundation model based on linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) pre-trained exclusively on synthetic data. The model uses a GatedDeltaProduct architecture with state-weaving for fully parallelizable training across sequence lengths, eliminating the need for windowing or summarization techniques while maintaining robust temporal state-tracking. Our comprehensive synthetic data pipeline unifies diverse generators, including stochastic differential equations, Gaussian processes, and audio synthesis, with novel augmentations. In zero-shot evaluations on the Gift-Eval benchmark, TempoPFN achieves top-tier competitive performance, outperforming all existing synthetic-only approaches and surpassing the vast majority of models trained on real-world data, while being more efficient than existing baselines by leveraging fully parallelizable training and inference. We open-source our complete data generation pipeline and training code, providing a reproducible foundation for future research.

Arber Zela, Julien Siems, Lucas Zimmer et al.

The most significant barrier to the advancement of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is its demand for large computational resources, which hinders scientifically sound empirical evaluations of NAS methods. Tabular NAS benchmarks have alleviated this problem substantially, making it possible to properly evaluate NAS methods in seconds on commodity machines. However, an unintended consequence of tabular NAS benchmarks has been a focus on extremely small architectural search spaces since their construction relies on exhaustive evaluations of the space. This leads to unrealistic results that do not transfer to larger spaces. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose a methodology to create cheap NAS surrogate benchmarks for arbitrary search spaces. We exemplify this approach by creating surrogate NAS benchmarks on the existing tabular NAS-Bench-101 and on two widely used NAS search spaces with up to $10^{21}$ architectures ($10^{13}$ times larger than any previous tabular NAS benchmark). We show that surrogate NAS benchmarks can model the true performance of architectures better than tabular benchmarks (at a small fraction of the cost), that they lead to faithful estimates of how well different NAS methods work on the original non-surrogate benchmark, and that they can generate new scientific insight. We open-source all our code and believe that surrogate NAS benchmarks are an indispensable tool to extend scientifically sound work on NAS to large and exciting search spaces.

Riccardo Grazzi, Julien Siems, Simon Schrodi et al.

State of the art foundation models such as GPT-4 perform surprisingly well at in-context learning (ICL), a variant of meta-learning concerning the learned ability to solve tasks during a neural network forward pass, exploiting contextual information provided as input to the model. This useful ability emerges as a side product of the foundation model's massive pretraining. While transformer models are currently the state of the art in ICL, this work provides empirical evidence that Mamba, a newly proposed state space model which scales better than transformers w.r.t. the input sequence length, has similar ICL capabilities. We evaluated Mamba on tasks involving simple function approximation as well as more complex natural language processing problems. Our results demonstrate that, across both categories of tasks, Mamba closely matches the performance of transformer models for ICL. Further analysis reveals that, like transformers, Mamba appears to solve ICL problems by incrementally optimizing its internal representations. Overall, our work suggests that Mamba can be an efficient alternative to transformers for ICL tasks involving long input sequences. This is an exciting finding in meta-learning and may enable generalizations of in-context learned AutoML algorithms (like TabPFN or Optformer) to long input sequences.

Riccardo Grazzi, Julien Siems, Arber Zela et al.

Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (LRNNs) such as Mamba, RWKV, GLA, mLSTM, and DeltaNet have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers for long sequences. However, both Transformers and LRNNs struggle to perform state-tracking, which may impair performance in tasks such as code evaluation. In one forward pass, current architectures are unable to solve even parity, the simplest state-tracking task, which non-linear RNNs can handle effectively. Recently, Sarrof et al. (2024) demonstrated that the failure of LRNNs like Mamba to solve parity stems from restricting the value range of their diagonal state-transition matrices to $[0, 1]$ and that incorporating negative values can resolve this issue. We extend this result to non-diagonal LRNNs such as DeltaNet. We prove that finite precision LRNNs with state-transition matrices having only positive eigenvalues cannot solve parity, while non-triangular matrices are needed to count modulo $3$. Notably, we also prove that LRNNs can learn any regular language when their state-transition matrices are products of identity minus vector outer product matrices, each with eigenvalues in the range $[-1, 1]$. Our experiments confirm that extending the eigenvalue range of Mamba and DeltaNet to include negative values not only enables them to solve parity but consistently improves their performance on state-tracking tasks. We also show that state-tracking enabled LRNNs can be pretrained stably and efficiently at scale (1.3B parameters), achieving competitive performance on language modeling and showing promise on code and math tasks.

Julien Siems, Timur Carstensen, Arber Zela et al.

Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (linear RNNs) have emerged as competitive alternatives to Transformers for sequence modeling, offering efficient training and linear-time inference. However, existing architectures face a fundamental trade-off between expressivity and efficiency, dictated by the structure of their state-transition matrices. Diagonal matrices, used in models such as Mamba, GLA, or mLSTM, yield fast runtime but have limited expressivity. To address this, recent architectures such as DeltaNet and RWKV-7 adopted a diagonal plus rank--1 structure, which allows simultaneous token and channel mixing, improving associative recall and, as recently shown, state-tracking when allowing state-transition matrices to have negative eigenvalues. Building on the interpretation of DeltaNet's recurrence as performing one step of online gradient descent per token on an associative recall loss, we introduce DeltaProduct, which instead takes multiple ($n_h$) steps per token. This naturally leads to diagonal plus rank--$n_h$ state-transition matrices, formed as products of $n_h$ generalized Householder transformations, providing a tunable mechanism to balance expressivity and efficiency. We provide a detailed theoretical characterization of the state-tracking capability of DeltaProduct in finite precision, showing how it improves by increasing $n_h$. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that DeltaProduct outperforms DeltaNet in both state-tracking and language modeling, while also showing significantly improved length extrapolation capabilities.

Julien Siems, Konstantin Ditschuneit, Winfried Ripken et al.

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) have recently experienced a resurgence in popularity due to their interpretability, which arises from expressing the target value as a sum of non-linear transformations of the features. Despite the current enthusiasm for GAMs, their susceptibility to concurvity - i.e., (possibly non-linear) dependencies between the features - has hitherto been largely overlooked. Here, we demonstrate how concurvity can severly impair the interpretability of GAMs and propose a remedy: a conceptually simple, yet effective regularizer which penalizes pairwise correlations of the non-linearly transformed feature variables. This procedure is applicable to any differentiable additive model, such as Neural Additive Models or NeuralProphet, and enhances interpretability by eliminating ambiguities due to self-canceling feature contributions. We validate the effectiveness of our regularizer in experiments on synthetic as well as real-world datasets for time-series and tabular data. Our experiments show that concurvity in GAMs can be reduced without significantly compromising prediction quality, improving interpretability and reducing variance in the feature importances.

Arber Zela, Julien Siems, Frank Hutter

One-shot neural architecture search (NAS) has played a crucial role in making NAS methods computationally feasible in practice. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of understanding on how these weight-sharing algorithms exactly work due to the many factors controlling the dynamics of the process. In order to allow a scientific study of these components, we introduce a general framework for one-shot NAS that can be instantiated to many recently-introduced variants and introduce a general benchmarking framework that draws on the recent large-scale tabular benchmark NAS-Bench-101 for cheap anytime evaluations of one-shot NAS methods. To showcase the framework, we compare several state-of-the-art one-shot NAS methods, examine how sensitive they are to their hyperparameters and how they can be improved by tuning their hyperparameters, and compare their performance to that of blackbox optimizers for NAS-Bench-101.