Sotiris Pelekis

Alexandros-Menelaos Tzortzis, Sotiris Pelekis, Evangelos Spiliotis et al.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is crucial for the daily operation of power grids. However, the non-linearity, non-stationarity, and randomness characterizing electricity demand time series renders STLF a challenging task. Various forecasting approaches have been proposed for improving STLF, including neural network (NN) models which are trained using data from multiple electricity demand series that may not necessary include the target series. In the present study, we investigate the performance of this special case of STLF, called transfer learning (TL), by considering a set of 27 time series that represent the national day-ahead electricity demand of indicative European countries. We employ a popular and easy-to-implement NN model and perform a clustering analysis to identify similar patterns among the series and assist TL. In this context, two different TL approaches, with and without the clustering step, are compiled and compared against each other as well as a typical NN training setup. Our results demonstrate that TL can outperform the conventional approach, especially when clustering techniques are considered.

Sotiris Pelekis, Evangelos Karakolis, Francisco Silva et al.

In power grids, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is crucial as it contributes to the optimization of their reliability, emissions, and costs, while it enables the participation of energy companies in the energy market. STLF is a challenging task, due to the complex demand of active and reactive power from multiple types of electrical loads and their dependence on numerous exogenous variables. Amongst them, special circumstances, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can often be the reason behind distribution shifts of load series. This work conducts a comparative study of Deep Learning (DL) architectures, namely Neural Basis Expansion Analysis Time Series Forecasting (N-BEATS), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), with respect to forecasting accuracy and training sustainability, meanwhile examining their out-of-distribution generalization capabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic era. A Pattern Sequence Forecasting (PSF) model is used as baseline. The case study focuses on day-ahead forecasts for the Portuguese national 15-minute resolution net load time series. The results can be leveraged by energy companies and network operators (i) to reinforce their forecasting toolkit with state-of-the-art DL models; (ii) to become aware of the serious consequences of crisis events on model performance; (iii) as a high-level model evaluation, deployment, and sustainability guide within a smart grid context.

Sotiris Pelekis, Angelos Pipergias, Evangelos Karakolis et al.

The present study proposes clustering techniques for designing demand response (DR) programs for commercial and residential prosumers. The goal is to alter the consumption behavior of the prosumers within a distributed energy community in Italy. This aggregation aims to: a) minimize the reverse power flow at the primary substation, occuring when generation from solar panels in the local grid exceeds consumption, and b) shift the system wide peak demand, that typically occurs during late afternoon. Regarding the clustering stage, we consider daily prosumer load profiles and divide them across the extracted clusters. Three popular machine learning algorithms are employed, namely k-means, k-medoids and agglomerative clustering. We evaluate the methods using multiple metrics including a novel metric proposed within this study, namely peak performance score (PPS). The k-means algorithm with dynamic time warping distance considering 14 clusters exhibits the highest performance with a PPS of 0.689. Subsequently, we analyze each extracted cluster with respect to load shape, entropy, and load types. These characteristics are used to distinguish the clusters that have the potential to serve the optimization objectives by matching them to proper DR schemes including time of use, critical peak pricing, and real-time pricing. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed clustering algorithm in generating meaningful flexibility clusters, while the derived DR pricing policy encourages consumption during off-peak hours. The developed methodology is robust to the low availability and quality of training datasets and can be used by aggregator companies for segmenting energy communities and developing personalized DR policies.

Sotiris Pelekis, Ioannis-Konstantinos Seisopoulos, Evangelos Spiliotis et al.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is vital for the effective and economic operation of power grids and energy markets. However, the non-linearity and non-stationarity of electricity demand as well as its dependency on various external factors renders STLF a challenging task. To that end, several deep learning models have been proposed in the literature for STLF, reporting promising results. In order to evaluate the accuracy of said models in day-ahead forecasting settings, in this paper we focus on the national net aggregated STLF of Portugal and conduct a comparative study considering a set of indicative, well-established deep autoregressive models, namely multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), neural basis expansion coefficient analysis (N-BEATS), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). Moreover, we identify factors that significantly affect the demand and investigate their impact on the accuracy of each model. Our results suggest that N-BEATS consistently outperforms the rest of the examined models. MLP follows, providing further evidence towards the use of feed-forward networks over relatively more sophisticated architectures. Finally, certain calendar and weather features like the hour of the day and the temperature are identified as key accuracy drivers, providing insights regarding the forecasting approach that should be used per case.

Vasilis Michalakopoulos, Sotiris Pelekis, Giorgos Kormpakis et al.

The analytical prediction of building energy performance in residential buildings based on the heat losses of its individual envelope components is a challenging task. It is worth noting that this field is still in its infancy, with relatively limited research conducted in this specific area to date, especially when it comes for data-driven approaches. In this paper we introduce a novel physics-informed neural network model for addressing this problem. Through the employment of unexposed datasets that encompass general building information, audited characteristics, and heating energy consumption, we feed the deep learning model with general building information, while the model's output consists of the structural components and several thermal properties that are in fact the basic elements of an energy performance certificate (EPC). On top of this neural network, a function, based on physics equations, calculates the energy consumption of the building based on heat losses and enhances the loss function of the deep learning model. This methodology is tested on a real case study for 256 buildings located in Riga, Latvia. Our investigation comes up with promising results in terms of prediction accuracy, paving the way for automated, and data-driven energy efficiency performance prediction based on basic properties of the building, contrary to exhaustive energy efficiency audits led by humans, which are the current status quo.

Sotiris Pelekis, Evangelos Karakolis, Theodosios Pountridis et al.

This paper presents DeepTSF, a comprehensive machine learning operations (MLOps) framework aiming to innovate time series forecasting through workflow automation and codeless modeling. DeepTSF automates key aspects of the ML lifecycle, making it an ideal tool for data scientists and MLops engineers engaged in machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)-based forecasting. DeepTSF empowers users with a robust and user-friendly solution, while it is designed to seamlessly integrate with existing data analysis workflows, providing enhanced productivity and compatibility. The framework offers a front-end user interface (UI) suitable for data scientists, as well as other higher-level stakeholders, enabling comprehensive understanding through insightful visualizations and evaluation metrics. DeepTSF also prioritizes security through identity management and access authorization mechanisms. The application of DeepTSF in real-life use cases of the I-NERGY project has already proven DeepTSF's efficacy in DL-based load forecasting, showcasing its significant added value in the electrical power and energy systems domain.

Alexandros Menelaos Tzortzis, Georgios Kormpakis, Sotiris Pelekis et al.

AI4EF, Artificial Intelligence for Energy Efficiency, is an advanced, user-centric tool designed to support decision-making in building energy retrofitting and efficiency optimization. Leveraging machine learning (ML) and data-driven insights, AI4EF enables stakeholders such as public sector representatives, energy consultants, and building owners to model, analyze, and predict energy consumption, retrofit costs, and environmental impacts of building upgrades. Featuring a modular framework, AI4EF includes customizable building retrofitting, photovoltaic installation assessment, and predictive modeling tools that allow users to input building parameters and receive tailored recommendations for achieving energy savings and carbon reduction goals. Additionally, the platform incorporates a Training Playground for data scientists to refine ML models used by said framework. Finally, AI4EF provides access to the Enershare Data Space to facilitate seamless data sharing and access within the ecosystem. Its compatibility with open-source identity management, Keycloak, enhances security and accessibility, making it adaptable for various regulatory and organizational contexts. This paper presents an architectural overview of AI4EF, its application in energy efficiency scenarios, and its potential for advancing sustainable energy practices through artificial intelligence (AI).

Sotiris Pelekis, Evangelos Karakolis, George Lampropoulos et al.

The present study aims to evaluate the current fuzzy landscape of Trustworthy AI (TAI) within the European Union (EU), with a specific focus on the energy sector. The analysis encompasses legal frameworks, directives, initiatives, and standards like the AI Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI (EGTAI), the Assessment List for Trustworthy AI (ALTAI), the AI act, and relevant CEN-CENELEC standardization efforts, as well as EU-funded projects such as AI4EU and SHERPA. Subsequently, we introduce a new TAI application framework, called E-TAI, tailored for energy applications, including smart grid and smart building systems. This framework draws inspiration from EGTAI but is customized for AI systems in the energy domain. It is designed for stakeholders in electrical power and energy systems (EPES), including researchers, developers, and energy experts linked to transmission system operators, distribution system operators, utilities, and aggregators. These stakeholders can utilize E-TAI to develop and evaluate AI services for the energy sector with a focus on ensuring trustworthiness throughout their development and iterative assessment processes.

Panagiota Rempi, Sotiris Pelekis, Alexandros Menelaos Tzortzis et al.

Enhancing energy efficiency in residential buildings is a crucial step toward mitigating climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Retrofitting existing buildings, which account for a significant portion of energy consumption, is critical particularly in regions with outdated and inefficient building stocks. This study presents an Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)-based framework to recommend energy efficiency measures for residential buildings, leveraging accessible building characteristics to achieve energy class targets. Using Latvia as a case study, the methodology addresses challenges associated with limited datasets, class imbalance and data scarcity. The proposed approach integrates Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN) to generate synthetic data, enriching and balancing the dataset. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model serves as the predictive model performing multi-label classification to predict appropriate retrofit strategies. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), specifically SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), ensures transparency and trust by identifying key features that influence recommendations and guiding feature engineering choices for improved reliability and performance. The evaluation of the approach shows that it notably overcomes data limitations, achieving improvements up to 54% in precision, recall and F1 score. Although this study focuses on Latvia, the methodology is adaptable to other regions, underscoring the potential of AI in reducing the complexity and cost of building energy retrofitting overcoming data limitations. By facilitating decision-making processes and promoting stakeholders engagement, this work supports the global transition toward sustainable energy use in the residential building sector.