Petar M. Djurić

Yuhao Liu, Marzieh Ajirak, Petar Djuric

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian processes that are implemented via random feature-based Gaussian processes. In these models, we have two sets of unknowns, highly nonlinear unknowns (the values of the latent processes) and conditionally linear unknowns (the constant parameters of the random feature-based Gaussian processes). We present a method based on particle filtering where the parameters of the random feature-based Gaussian processes are integrated out in obtaining the predictive density of the states and do not need particles. We also propose an ensemble version of the method, with each member of the ensemble having its own set of features. With several experiments, we show that the method can track the latent processes up to a scale and rotation.

Yuhao Liu, Marzieh Ajirak, Petar Djuric

In this paper, we propose novel Gaussian process-gated hierarchical mixtures of experts (GPHMEs). Unlike other mixtures of experts with gating models linear in the input, our model employs gating functions built with Gaussian processes (GPs). These processes are based on random features that are non-linear functions of the inputs. Furthermore, the experts in our model are also constructed with GPs. The optimization of the GPHMEs is performed by variational inference. The proposed GPHMEs have several advantages. They outperform tree-based HME benchmarks that partition the data in the input space, and they achieve good performance with reduced complexity. Another advantage is the interpretability they provide for deep GPs, and more generally, for deep Bayesian neural networks. Our GPHMEs demonstrate excellent performance for large-scale data sets, even with quite modest sizes.

Daniel Waxman, Kurt Butler, Petar M. Djuric

We introduce Dagma-DCE, an interpretable and model-agnostic scheme for differentiable causal discovery. Current non- or over-parametric methods in differentiable causal discovery use opaque proxies of ``independence'' to justify the inclusion or exclusion of a causal relationship. We show theoretically and empirically that these proxies may be arbitrarily different than the actual causal strength. Juxtaposed to existing differentiable causal discovery algorithms, \textsc{Dagma-DCE} uses an interpretable measure of causal strength to define weighted adjacency matrices. In a number of simulated datasets, we show our method achieves state-of-the-art level performance. We additionally show that \textsc{Dagma-DCE} allows for principled thresholding and sparsity penalties by domain-experts. The code for our method is available open-source at https://github.com/DanWaxman/DAGMA-DCE, and can easily be adapted to arbitrary differentiable models.

Kurt Butler, Guanchao Feng, Petar M. Djuric

The field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) attempts to develop methods that provide insight into how complicated machine learning methods make predictions. Many methods of explanation have focused on the concept of feature attribution, a decomposition of the model's prediction into individual contributions corresponding to each input feature. In this work, we explore the problem of feature attribution in the context of Gaussian process regression (GPR). We take a principled approach to defining attributions under model uncertainty, extending the existing literature. We show that although GPR is a highly flexible and non-parametric approach, we can derive interpretable, closed-form expressions for the feature attributions. When using integrated gradients as an attribution method, we show that the attributions of a GPR model also follow a Gaussian process distribution, which quantifies the uncertainty in attribution arising from uncertainty in the model. We demonstrate, both through theory and experimentation, the versatility and robustness of this approach. We also show that, when applicable, the exact expressions for GPR attributions are both more accurate and less computationally expensive than the approximations currently used in practice. The source code for this project is freely available under MIT license at https://github.com/KurtButler/2024_attributions_paper.

Kurt Butler, Guanchao Feng, Tong Chen et al.

Probabilistic models are often used to make predictions in regions of the data space where no observations are available, but it is not always clear whether such predictions are well-informed by previously seen data. In this paper, we propose a knowledge score for predictions from Gaussian process regression (GPR) models that quantifies the extent to which observing data have reduced our uncertainty about a prediction. The knowledge score is interpretable and naturally bounded between 0 and 1. We demonstrate in several experiments that the knowledge score can anticipate when predictions from a GPR model are accurate, and that this anticipation improves performance in tasks such as anomaly detection, extrapolation, and missing data imputation. Source code for this project is available online at https://github.com/KurtButler/GP-knowledge.

Kurt Butler, Marija Iloska, Petar M. Djuric

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this work, we introduce the problem of counterfactual reasoning in the context of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. We also formulate the inference of a causal model as a joint regression task where for inference we use both data with and without interventions. After learning the model, we exploit linearity of the VAR model to make exact predictions about the effects of counterfactual interventions. Furthermore, we quantify the total causal effects of past counterfactual interventions. The source code for this project is freely available at https://github.com/KurtButler/counterfactual_interventions.

Daniel Waxman, Petar M. Djurić

Practical Bayesian learning often requires (1) online inference, (2) dynamic models, and (3) ensembling over multiple different models. Recent advances have shown how to use random feature approximations to achieve scalable, online ensembling of Gaussian processes with desirable theoretical properties and fruitful applications. One key to these methods' success is the inclusion of a random walk on the model parameters, which makes models dynamic. We show that these methods can be generalized easily to any basis expansion model and that using alternative basis expansions, such as Hilbert space Gaussian processes, often results in better performance. To simplify the process of choosing a specific basis expansion, our method's generality also allows the ensembling of several entirely different models, for example, a Gaussian process and polynomial regression. Finally, we propose a novel method to ensemble static and dynamic models together.

Kurt Butler, Daniel Waxman, Petar M. Djurić

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by dynamical systems, where traditional approaches like Granger causality are unreliable. However, CCM often yields inaccurate results depending upon the quality of the data. We propose the Tangent Space Causal Inference (TSCI) method for detecting causalities in dynamical systems. TSCI works by considering vector fields as explicit representations of the systems' dynamics and checks for the degree of synchronization between the learned vector fields. The TSCI approach is model-agnostic and can be used as a drop-in replacement for CCM and its generalizations. We first present a basic version of the TSCI algorithm, which is shown to be more effective than the basic CCM algorithm with very little additional computation. We additionally present augmented versions of TSCI that leverage the expressive power of latent variable models and deep learning. We validate our theory on standard systems, and we demonstrate improved causal inference performance across a number of benchmark tasks.

Marzieh Ajirak, Daniel Waxman, Fernando Llorente et al.

In science and engineering, we often work with models designed for accurate prediction of variables of interest. Recognizing that these models are approximations of reality, it becomes desirable to apply multiple models to the same data and integrate their outcomes. In this paper, we operate within the Bayesian paradigm, relying on Gaussian processes as our models. These models generate predictive probability density functions (pdfs), and the objective is to integrate them systematically, employing both linear and log-linear pooling. We introduce novel approaches for log-linear pooling, determining input-dependent weights for the predictive pdfs of the Gaussian processes. The aggregation of the pdfs is realized through Monte Carlo sampling, drawing samples of weights from their posterior. The performance of these methods, as well as those based on linear pooling, is demonstrated using a synthetic dataset.

Daniel Waxman, Fernando Llorente, Katia Lamer et al.

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that "minimize information loss" from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

Kurt Butler, Guanchao Feng, Petar Djuric

Feature attributions are post-training analysis methods that assess how various input features of a machine learning model contribute to an output prediction. Their interpretation is straightforward when features act independently, but becomes less direct when the predictive model involves interactions such as multiplicative relationships or joint feature contributions. In this work, we propose a general theory of higher-order feature attribution, which we develop on the foundation of Integrated Gradients (IG). This work extends existing frameworks in the literature on explainable AI. When using IG as the method of feature attribution, we discover natural connections to statistics and topological signal processing. We provide several theoretical results that establish the theory, and we validate our theory on a few examples.

Marzieh Ajirak, Anand Ravishankar, Petar M. Djuric

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in probabilistic models. We focus on Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models and employ scalable Random Fourier Features-based Gaussian Processes to approximate predictive distributions efficiently. We derive a theoretical formulation for UQ, propose a Monte Carlo sampling-based estimation method, and conduct experiments to evaluate the impact of uncertainty estimation. Our results provide insights into the sources of predictive uncertainty and illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in quantifying the confidence in the predictions.

Daniel Waxman, Fernando Llorente, Petar M. Djurić

We revisit the classical problem of Bayesian ensembles and address the challenge of learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in an online, continual learning setting. To this end, we reinterpret existing approaches such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Bayesian stacking through a novel empirical Bayes lens, shedding new light on the limitations and pathologies of BMA. Further motivated by insights from online optimization, we propose Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS), a method that optimizes the log-score over predictive distributions to adaptively combine Bayesian models. A key contribution of our work is establishing a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection, bridging Bayesian ensemble learning with a rich, well-studied theoretical framework that offers efficient algorithms and extensive regret analysis. We further clarify the relationship between OBS and online BMA, showing that they optimize related but distinct cost functions. Through theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation, we identify scenarios where OBS outperforms online BMA and provide principled guidance on when practitioners should prefer one approach over the other.

Fernando Llorente, Daniel Waxman, Petar M. Djurić

Flexible and scalable decentralized learning solutions are fundamentally important in the application of multi-agent systems. While several recent approaches introduce (ensembles of) kernel machines in the distributed setting, Bayesian solutions are much more limited. We introduce a fully decentralized, asymptotically exact solution to computing the random feature approximation of Gaussian processes. We further address the choice of hyperparameters by introducing an ensembling scheme for Bayesian multiple kernel learning based on online Bayesian model averaging. The resulting algorithm is tested against Bayesian and frequentist methods on simulated and real-world datasets.

Ying Li, Zhidi Lin, Yuhao Liu et al.

Random feature latent variable models (RFLVMs) represent the state-of-the-art in latent variable models, capable of handling non-Gaussian likelihoods and effectively uncovering patterns in high-dimensional data. However, their heavy reliance on Monte Carlo sampling results in scalability issues which makes it difficult to use these models for datasets with a massive number of observations. To scale up RFLVMs, we turn to the optimization-based variational Bayesian inference (VBI) algorithm which is known for its scalability compared to sampling-based methods. However, implementing VBI for RFLVMs poses challenges, such as the lack of explicit probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the Dirichlet process (DP) in the kernel learning component, and the incompatibility of existing VBI algorithms with RFLVMs. To address these issues, we introduce a stick-breaking construction for DP to obtain an explicit PDF and a novel VBI algorithm called ``block coordinate descent variational inference" (BCD-VI). This enables the development of a scalable version of RFLVMs, or in short, SRFLVM. Our proposed method shows scalability, computational efficiency, superior performance in generating informative latent representations and the ability of imputing missing data across various real-world datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art competitors.

Daniel Waxman, Petar M. Djurić

Online prediction of time series under regime switching is a widely studied problem in the literature, with many celebrated approaches. Using the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes, the recently proposed INTEL algorithm provides a product of experts approach to online prediction of time series under possible regime switching, including the special case of outliers. This is achieved by adaptively combining several candidate models, each reporting their predictive distribution at time $t$. However, the INTEL algorithm uses a finite context window approximation to the predictive distribution, the computation of which scales cubically with the maximum lag, or otherwise scales quartically with exact predictive distributions. We introduce LINTEL, which uses the exact filtering distribution at time $t$ with constant-time updates, making the time complexity of the streaming algorithm optimal. We additionally note that the weighting mechanism of INTEL is better suited to a mixture of experts approach, and propose a fusion policy based on arithmetic averaging for LINTEL. We show experimentally that our proposed approach is over five times faster than INTEL under reasonable settings with better quality predictions.

Felipe Tobar, Lerko Araya-Hernández, Pablo Huijse et al.

In a number of data-driven applications such as detection of arrhythmia, interferometry or audio compression, observations are acquired indistinctly in the time or frequency domains: temporal observations allow us to study the spectral content of signals (e.g., audio), while frequency-domain observations are used to reconstruct temporal/spatial data (e.g., MRI). Classical approaches for spectral analysis rely either on i) a discretisation of the time and frequency domains, where the fast Fourier transform stands out as the \textit{de facto} off-the-shelf resource, or ii) stringent parametric models with closed-form spectra. However, the general literature fails to cater for missing observations and noise-corrupted data. Our aim is to address the lack of a principled treatment of data acquired indistinctly in the temporal and frequency domains in a way that is robust to missing or noisy observations, and that at the same time models uncertainty effectively. To achieve this aim, we first define a joint probabilistic model for the temporal and spectral representations of signals, to then perform a Bayesian model update in the light of observations, thus jointly reconstructing the complete (latent) time and frequency representations. The proposed model is analysed from a classical spectral analysis perspective, and its implementation is illustrated through intuitive examples. Lastly, we show that the proposed model is able to perform joint time and frequency reconstruction of real-world audio, healthcare and astronomy signals, while successfully dealing with missing data and handling uncertainty (noise) naturally against both classical and modern approaches for spectral estimation.

Marzieh Ajirak, Cassandra Heiselman, Anna Fuchs et al.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread throughout the world and while pregnant women present the same adverse outcome rates, they are underrepresented in clinical research. We collected clinical data of 155 test-positive COVID-19 pregnant women at Stony Brook University Hospital. Many of these collected data are of multivariate categorical type, where the number of possible outcomes grows exponentially as the dimension of data increases. We modeled the data within the unsupervised Bayesian framework and mapped them into a lower-dimensional space using latent Gaussian processes. The latent features in the lower dimensional space were further used for predicting if a pregnant woman would be admitted to a hospital due to COVID-19 or would remain with mild symptoms. We compared the prediction accuracy with the dummy/one-hot encoding of categorical data and found that the latent Gaussian process had better accuracy.

Anna Guerra, Francesco Guidi, Davide Dardari et al.

In this paper, we study a joint detection, mapping and navigation problem for a single unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a low complexity radar and flying in an unknown environment. The goal is to optimize its trajectory with the purpose of maximizing the mapping accuracy and, at the same time, to avoid areas where measurements might not be sufficiently informative from the perspective of a target detection. This problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) where the UAV is an agent that runs either a state estimator for target detection and for environment mapping, and a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to infer its own policy of navigation (i.e., the control law). Numerical results show the feasibility of the proposed idea, highlighting the UAV's capability of autonomously exploring areas with high probability of target detection while reconstructing the surrounding environment.

Anna Guerra, Davide Dardari, Petar M. Djuric

Nowadays there is a growing research interest on the possibility of enriching small flying robots with autonomous sensing and online navigation capabilities. This will enable a large number of applications spanning from remote surveillance to logistics, smarter cities and emergency aid in hazardous environments. In this context, an emerging problem is to track unauthorized small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) hiding behind buildings or concealing in large UAV networks. In contrast with current solutions mainly based on static and on-ground radars, this paper proposes the idea of a dynamic radar network of UAVs for real-time and high-accuracy tracking of malicious targets. To this end, we describe a solution for real-time navigation of UAVs to track a dynamic target using heterogeneously sensed information. Such information is shared by the UAVs with their neighbors via multi-hops, allowing tracking the target by a local Bayesian estimator running at each agent. Since not all the paths are equal in terms of information gathering point-of-view, the UAVs plan their own trajectory by minimizing the posterior covariance matrix of the target state under UAV kinematic and anti-collision constraints. Our results show how a dynamic network of radars attains better localization results compared to a fixed configuration and how the on-board sensor technology impacts the accuracy in tracking a target with different radar cross sections, especially in non line-of-sight (NLOS) situations.