Felipe Yáñez

Felipe Yáñez, Xiaoliang Luo, Omar Valerio Minero et al.

Large language models (LLMs) can surpass humans in certain forecasting tasks. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members' confidence is well-calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated its effectiveness in both image classification and neuroscience forecasting tasks. Combining human judgments with one or more machines consistently improved overall team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

Xiaoliang Luo, Akilles Rechardt, Guangzhi Sun et al.

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

Felipe Yanez, Francis Bach

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) approximates a given matrix as a product of two non-negative matrices. Multiplicative algorithms deliver reliable results, but they show slow convergence for high-dimensional data and may be stuck away from local minima. Gradient descent methods have better behavior, but only apply to smooth losses such as the least-squares loss. In this article, we propose a first-order primal-dual algorithm for non-negative decomposition problems (where one factor is fixed) with the KL divergence, based on the Chambolle-Pock algorithm. All required computations may be obtained in closed form and we provide an efficient heuristic way to select step-sizes. By using alternating optimization, our algorithm readily extends to NMF and, on synthetic examples, face recognition or music source separation datasets, it is either faster than existing algorithms, or leads to improved local optima, or both.