Barbara Guardabascio

A. Fronzetti Colladon, B. Guardabascio, F. Venturini

How does technological interdependence affect innovation? We address this question by examining the influence of neighbors' innovativeness and the structure of the innovators' network on a sector's capacity to develop new technologies. We study these two dimensions of technological interdependence by applying novel methods of text mining and network analysis to the documents of 6.5 million patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 1976 and 2021. We find that, in the long run, the influence of network linkages is as important as that of neighbor innovativeness. In the short run, however, positive shocks to neighbor innovativeness yield relatively rapid effects, while the impact of shocks strengthening network linkages manifests with delay, even though lasts longer. Our analysis also highlights that patent text contains a wealth of information often not captured by traditional innovation metrics, such as patent citations.

A Fronzetti Colladon, B Guardabascio, R Innarella

Forecasting tourism demand has important implications for both policy makers and companies operating in the tourism industry. In this research, we applied methods and tools of social network and semantic analysis to study user-generated content retrieved from online communities which interacted on the TripAdvisor travel forum. We analyzed the forums of 7 major European capital cities, over a period of 10 years, collecting more than 2,660,000 posts, written by about 147,000 users. We present a new methodology of analysis of tourism-related big data and a set of variables which could be integrated into traditional forecasting models. We implemented Factor Augmented Autoregressive and Bridge models with social network and semantic variables which often led to a better forecasting performance than univariate models and models based on Google Trend data. Forum language complexity and the centralization of the communication network, i.e. the presence of eminent contributors, were the variables that contributed more to the forecasting of international airport arrivals.

A. Fronzetti Colladon, F. Grippa, B. Guardabascio et al.

This research studies the impact of online news on social and economic consumer perceptions through semantic network analysis. Using over 1.8 million online articles on Italian media covering four years, we calculate the semantic importance of specific economic-related keywords to see if words appearing in the articles could anticipate consumers' judgments about the economic situation and the Consumer Confidence Index. We use an innovative approach to analyze big textual data, combining methods and tools of text mining and social network analysis. Results show a strong predictive power for the judgments about the current households and national situation. Our indicator offers a complementary approach to estimating consumer confidence, lessening the limitations of traditional survey-based methods.