Elizabeth J. Cross

Elizabeth J Cross, Samuel J Gibson, Matthew R Jones et al.

The use of machine learning in Structural Health Monitoring is becoming more common, as many of the inherent tasks (such as regression and classification) in developing condition-based assessment fall naturally into its remit. This chapter introduces the concept of physics-informed machine learning, where one adapts ML algorithms to account for the physical insight an engineer will often have of the structure they are attempting to model or assess. The chapter will demonstrate how grey-box models, that combine simple physics-based models with data-driven ones, can improve predictive capability in an SHM setting. A particular strength of the approach demonstrated here is the capacity of the models to generalise, with enhanced predictive capability in different regimes. This is a key issue when life-time assessment is a requirement, or when monitoring data do not span the operational conditions a structure will undergo. The chapter will provide an overview of physics-informed ML, introducing a number of new approaches for grey-box modelling in a Bayesian setting. The main ML tool discussed will be Gaussian process regression, we will demonstrate how physical assumptions/models can be incorporated through constraints, through the mean function and kernel design, and finally in a state-space setting. A range of SHM applications will be demonstrated, from loads monitoring tasks for off-shore and aerospace structures, through to performance monitoring for long-span bridges.

Elizabeth J Cross, Timothy J Rogers, Daniel J Pitchforth et al.

Despite the growing availability of sensing and data in general, we remain unable to fully characterise many in-service engineering systems and structures from a purely data-driven approach. The vast data and resources available to capture human activity are unmatched in our engineered world, and, even in cases where data could be referred to as ``big,'' they will rarely hold information across operational windows or life spans. This paper pursues the combination of machine learning technology and physics-based reasoning to enhance our ability to make predictive models with limited data. By explicitly linking the physics-based view of stochastic processes with a data-based regression approach, a spectrum of possible Gaussian process models are introduced that enable the incorporation of different levels of expert knowledge of a system. Examples illustrate how these approaches can significantly reduce reliance on data collection whilst also increasing the interpretability of the model, another important consideration in this context.

Matthew R Jones, Timothy J Rogers, Elizabeth J Cross

The automated localisation of damage in structures is a challenging but critical ingredient in the path towards predictive or condition-based maintenance of high value structures. The use of acoustic emission time of arrival mapping is a promising approach to this challenge, but is severely hindered by the need to collect a dense set of artificial acoustic emission measurements across the structure, resulting in a lengthy and often impractical data acquisition process. In this paper, we consider the use of physics-informed Gaussian processes for learning these maps to alleviate this problem. In the approach, the Gaussian process is constrained to the physical domain such that information relating to the geometry and boundary conditions of the structure are embedded directly into the learning process, returning a model that guarantees that any predictions made satisfy physically-consistent behaviour at the boundary. A number of scenarios that arise when training measurement acquisition is limited, including where training data are sparse, and also of limited coverage over the structure of interest. Using a complex plate-like structure as an experimental case study, we show that our approach significantly reduces the burden of data collection, where it is seen that incorporation of boundary condition knowledge significantly improves predictive accuracy as training observations are reduced, particularly when training measurements are not available across all parts of the structure.

Daniel R. Clarkson, Lawrence A. Bull, Chandula T. Wickramarachchi et al.

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label pairs used to learn such mappings are of limited availability which hinders the effectiveness of traditional supervised machine learning approaches. The current paper proposes a methodology for overcoming the issue of data scarcity by combining active learning with hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Active learning is an approach for preferentially acquiring feature-label pairs in a resource-efficient manner. In particular, the current work adopts a risk-informed approach that leverages contextual information associated with regression-based engineering decision-making tasks (e.g.\ inspection and maintenance). Hierarchical Bayesian modelling allow multiple related regression tasks to be learned over a population, capturing local and global effects. The information sharing facilitated by this modelling approach means that information acquired for one engineering system can improve predictive performance across the population. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an experimental case study. Specifically, multiple regressions are performed over a population of machining tools, where the quantity of interest is the surface roughness of the workpieces. An inspection and maintenance decision process is defined using these regression tasks which is in turn used to construct the active-learning algorithm. The novel methodology proposed is benchmarked against an uninformed approach to label acquisition and independent modelling of the regression tasks. It is shown that the proposed approach has superior performance in terms of expected cost -- maintaining predictive performance while reducing the number of inspections required.

Daniel R. Clarkson, Lawrence A. Bull, Tina A. Dardeno et al.

At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict surface-roughness measurements for a turning machining process. The hierarchical model is compared to multiple independent Bayesian linear regression models to showcase the benefits of partial pooling in a machining setting with respect to prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Daisy R Bradley, Elizabeth J Cross

Machine learning continues to emerge as an important tool to be utilised within structural engineering and structural health monitoring, due to its ability to accurately and quickly perform both regression and classification tasks. However, a purely data driven approach has its limitations, particularly where we lack data from relevant environmental and operational conditions, a situation that has led to the development of physics-informed machine learners for structural health monitoring. These "grey-box" models take into account the physical insight that an engineer would have about the structure they are modelling and have shown promising results in the structural engineering field among many others. This work compares black and grey-box models through a "green" lens, comparing them in terms of their environmental impact, and investigating how the high extrapolative performance of grey-box models can reduce their runtimes and therefore carbon emissions. The authors aim to develop physics-informed models with reduced computational costs, while maintaining high performance, illustrated through a structural health monitoring case study.

Tristan Gowdridge, Elizabeth Cross, Nikolaos Dervilis et al.

The paper studies the topological changes from before and after cointegration, for the natural frequencies of the Z24 Bridge. The second natural frequency is known to be nonlinear in temperature, and this will serve as the main focal point of this work. Cointegration is a method of normalising time series data with respect to one another - often strongly-correlated time series. Cointegration is used in this paper to remove effects from Environmental and Operational Variations, by cointegrating the first four natural frequencies for the Z24 Bridge data. The temperature effects on the natural frequency data are clearly visible within the data, and it is desirable, for the purposes of structural health monitoring, that these effects are removed. The univariate time series are embedded in higher-dimensional space, such that interesting topologies are formed. Topological data analysis is used to analyse the raw time series, and the cointegrated equivalents. A standard topological data analysis pipeline is enacted, where simplicial complexes are constructed from the embedded point clouds. Topological properties are then calculated from the simplicial complexes; such as the persistent homology. The persistent homology is then analysed, to determine the topological structure of all the time series.

Daniel James Pitchforth, Matthew Rhys Jones, Samuel John Gibson et al.

The relative balance between physics and data within any physics-informed machine learner is an important modelling consideration to ensure that the benefits of both physics and data-based approaches are maximised. An over reliance on physical knowledge can be detrimental, particularly when the physics-based component of a model may not accurately represent the true underlying system. An underutilisation of physical knowledge potentially wastes a valuable resource, along with benefits in model interpretability and reduced demand for expensive data collection. Achieving an optimal physics-data balance is a challenging aspect of model design, particularly if the level varies through time; for example, one might have a physical approximation, only valid within particular regimes, or a physical phenomenon may be known to only occur when given conditions are met (e.g. at high temperatures). This paper develops novel, physically-informed, change-point kernels for Gaussian processes, capable of dynamically varying the reliance upon available physical knowledge. A high level of control is granted to a user, allowing for the definition of conditions in which they believe a phenomena should occur and the rate at which the knowledge should be phased in and out of a model. In circumstances where users may be less certain, the switching reliance upon physical knowledge may be automatically learned and recovered from the model in an interpretable and intuitive manner. Variation of the modelled noise based on the physical phenomena occurring is also implemented to provide a more representative capture of uncertainty alongside predictions. The capabilities of the new kernel structures are explored through the use of two engineering case studies: the directional wind loading of a cable-stayed bridge and the prediction of aircraft wing strain during in-flight manoeuvring.

W. Lin, K. Worden, E. J. Cross

An important challenge faced by wind farm operators is to reduce operation and maintenance cost. Structural health monitoring provides a means of cost reduction through minimising unnecessary maintenance trips as well as prolonging turbine service life. Population-based structural health monitoring can further reduce the cost of health monitoring systems by implementing one system for multiple structures (i.e.~turbines). At the same time, shared data within a population of structures may improve the predictions of structural behaviour. To monitor turbine performance at a population/farm level, an important initial step is to construct a model that describes the behaviour of all turbines under normal conditions. This paper proposes a population-level model that explicitly captures the spatial and temporal correlations (between turbines) induced by the wake effect. The proposed model is a Gaussian process-based spatial autoregressive model, named here a GP-SPARX model. This approach is developed since (a) it reflects our physical understanding of the wake effect, and (b) it benefits from a stochastic data-based learner. A case study is provided to demonstrate the capability of the GP-SPARX model in capturing spatial and temporal variations as well as its potential applicability in a health monitoring system.

Lawrence A. Bull, Matthew R. Jones, Elizabeth J. Cross et al.

In practice, non-destructive testing (NDT) procedures tend to consider experiments (and their respective models) as distinct, conducted in isolation and associated with independent data. In contrast, this work looks to capture the interdependencies between acoustic emission (AE) experiments (as meta-models) and then use the resulting functions to predict the model hyperparameters for previously unobserved systems. We utilise a Bayesian multilevel approach (similar to deep Gaussian Processes) where a higher level meta-model captures the inter-task relationships. Our key contribution is how knowledge of the experimental campaign can be encoded between tasks as well as within tasks. We present an example of AE time-of-arrival mapping for source localisation, to illustrate how multilevel models naturally lend themselves to representing aggregate systems in engineering. We constrain the meta-model based on domain knowledge, then use the inter-task functions for transfer learning, predicting hyperparameters for models of previously unobserved experiments (for a specific design).

L. A. Bull, P. A. Gardner, T. J. Rogers et al.

Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the measurements do not always correspond to the ideal curve: power curtailments will appear as (additional) functional components. Such multivalued relationships cannot be modelled by conventional regression, and the associated data are usually removed during pre-processing. The current work suggests an alternative method to infer multivalued relationships in curtailed power data. Using a population-based approach, an overlapping mixture of probabilistic regression models is applied to signals recorded from turbines within an operational wind farm. The model is shown to provide an accurate representation of practical power data across the population.

Daniel J Pitchforth, Timothy J Rogers, Ulf T Tygesen et al.

The quantification of wave loading on offshore structures and components is a crucial element in the assessment of their useful remaining life. In many applications the well-known Morison's equation is employed to estimate the forcing from waves with assumed particle velocities and accelerations. This paper develops a grey-box modelling approach to improve the predictions of the force on structural members. A grey-box model intends to exploit the enhanced predictive capabilities of data-based modelling whilst retaining physical insight into the behaviour of the system; in the context of the work carried out here, this can be considered as physics-informed machine learning. There are a number of possible approaches to establish a grey-box model. This paper demonstrates two means of combining physics (white box) and data-based (black box) components; one where the model is a simple summation of the two components, the second where the white-box prediction is fed into the black box as an additional input. Here Morison's equation is used as the physics-based component in combination with a data-based Gaussian process NARX - a dynamic variant of the more well-known Gaussian process regression. Two key challenges with employing the GP-NARX formulation that are addressed here are the selection of appropriate lag terms and the proper treatment of uncertainty propagation within the dynamic GP. The best performing grey-box model, the residual modelling GP-NARX, was able to achieve a 29.13\% and 5.48\% relative reduction in NMSE over Morison's Equation and a black-box GP-NARX respectively, alongside significant benefits in extrapolative capabilities of the model, in circumstances of low dataset coverage.

Kartik Chandrasekhar, Nevena Stevanovic, Elizabeth J. Cross et al.

The application of reliable structural health monitoring (SHM) technologies to operational wind turbine blades is a challenging task, due to the uncertain nature of the environments they operate in. In this paper, a novel SHM methodology, which uses Gaussian Processes (GPs) is proposed. The methodology takes advantage of the fact that the blades on a turbine are nominally identical in structural properties and encounter the same environmental and operational variables (EOVs). The properties of interest are the first edgewise frequencies of the blades. The GPs are used to predict the edge frequencies of one blade given that of another, after these relationships between the pairs of blades have been learned when the blades are in a healthy state. In using this approach, the proposed SHM methodology is able to identify when the blades start behaving differently from one another over time. To validate the concept, the proposed SHM system is applied to real onshore wind turbine blade data, where some form of damage was known to have taken place. X-bar control chart analysis of the residual errors between the GP predictions and actual frequencies show that the system successfully identified early onset of damage as early as six months before it was identified and remedied.

Marcus Haywood-Alexander, Nikolaos Dervilis, Keith Worden et al.

The use of ultrasonic guided waves to probe the materials/structures for damage continues to increase in popularity for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM). The use of high-frequency waves such as these offers an advantage over low-frequency methods from their ability to detect damage on a smaller scale. However, in order to assess damage in a structure, and implement any NDE or SHM tool, knowledge of the behaviour of a guided wave throughout the material/structure is important (especially when designing sensor placement for SHM systems). Determining this behaviour is extremely diffcult in complex materials, such as fibre-matrix composites, where unique phenomena such as continuous mode conversion takes place. This paper introduces a novel method for modelling the feature-space of guided waves in a composite material. This technique is based on a data-driven model, where prior physical knowledge can be used to create structured machine learning tools; where constraints are applied to provide said structure. The method shown makes use of Gaussian processes, a full Bayesian analysis tool, and in this paper it is shown how physical knowledge of the guided waves can be utilised in modelling using an ML tool. This paper shows that through careful consideration when applying machine learning techniques, more robust models can be generated which offer advantages such as extrapolation ability and physical interpretation.

Matthew R. Jones, Tim J. Rogers, Keith Worden et al.

In the field of structural health monitoring (SHM), the acquisition of acoustic emissions to localise damage sources has emerged as a popular approach. Despite recent advances, the task of locating damage within composite materials and structures that contain non-trivial geometrical features, still poses a significant challenge. Within this paper, a Bayesian source localisation strategy that is robust to these complexities is presented. Under this new framework, a Gaussian process is first used to learn the relationship between source locations and the corresponding difference-in-time-of-arrival values for a number of sensor pairings. As an acoustic emission event with an unknown origin is observed, a mapping is then generated that quantifies the likelihood of the emission location across the surface of the structure. The new probabilistic mapping offers multiple benefits, leading to a localisation strategy that is more informative than deterministic predictions or single-point estimates with an associated confidence bound. The performance of the approach is investigated on a structure with numerous complex geometrical features and demonstrates a favourable performance in comparison to other similar localisation methods.