Youze Zheng

Jianyou Wang, Youze Zheng, Longtian Bao et al.

Scientists have long sought to accurately predict outcomes of real-world events before they happen. Can AI systems do so more reliably? We study this question through clinical trial outcome prediction, a high-stakes open challenge even for domain experts. We introduce CT Open, an open-access, live platform that will run four challenge every year. Anyone can submit predictions for each challenge. CT Open evaluates those submissions on trials whose outcomes were not yet public at the time of submission but were made public afterwards. Determining if a trial's outcome is public on the internet before a certain date is surprisingly difficult. Outcomes posted on official registries may lag behind by years, while the first mention may appear in obscure articles. To address this, we propose a novel, fully automated decontamination pipeline that uses iterative LLM-powered web search to identify the earliest mention of trial outcomes. We validate the pipeline's quality and accuracy by human expert's annotations. Since CT Open's pipeline ensures that every evaluated trial had no publicly reported outcome when the prediction was made, it allows participants to use any methodology and any data source. In this paper, we release a training set and two time-stamped test benchmarks, Winter 2025 and Summer 2025. We believe CT Open can serve as a central hub for advancing AI research on forecasting real-world outcomes before they occur, while also informing biomedical research and improving clinical trial design. CT Open Platform is hosted at $\href{https://ct-open.net/}{https://ct-open.net/}$

Weili Cao, Jianyou Wang, Youze Zheng et al.

Handling extremely large documents for question answering is challenging: chunk-based embedding methods often lose track of important global context, while full-context transformers can be prohibitively expensive for hundreds of thousands of tokens. We propose a single-pass document scanning approach that processes the entire text in linear time, preserving global coherence while deciding which sentences are most relevant to the query. On 41 QA benchmarks, our single-pass scanner consistently outperforms chunk-based embedding methods and competes with large language models at a fraction of the computational cost. By conditioning on the entire preceding context without chunk breaks, the method preserves global coherence, which is especially important for long documents. Overall, single-pass document scanning offers a simple solution for question answering over massive text. All code, datasets, and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/MambaRetriever/MambaRetriever

Jianyou Wang, Weili Cao, Longtian Bao et al.

Systems that answer questions by reviewing the scientific literature are becoming increasingly feasible. To draw reliable conclusions, these systems should take into account the quality of available evidence from different studies, placing more weight on studies that use a valid methodology. We present a benchmark for measuring the methodological strength of biomedical papers, drawing on the risk-of-bias framework used for systematic reviews. Derived from over 500 biomedical studies, the three benchmark tasks encompass expert reviewers' judgments of studies' research methodologies, including the assessments of risk of bias within these studies. The benchmark contains a human-validated annotation pipeline for fine-grained alignment of reviewers' judgments with research paper sentences. Our analyses show that large language models' reasoning and retrieval capabilities impact their effectiveness with risk-of-bias assessment. The dataset is available at https://github.com/RoBBR-Benchmark/RoBBR.

Youze Zheng, Jianyou Wang, Yuhan Chen et al.

Predicting the outcomes of prospective clinical trials remains a major challenge for large language models. Prior work has shown that both traditional correlational predictors, such as random forests and logistic regression, and strong commercial LLMs achieve limited performance on this task. In this paper, we propose DeepImagine, a framework for teaching LLMs biomedical reasoning through successive counterfactual imagining. The central idea is to approximate hidden causal mechanisms of clinical trials by training models to infer how observed trial results would change under controlled perturbations of experimental conditions, such as dosage, outcome measures, study arms, geography, and other trial attributes. To support this objective, we construct both natural and approximate counterfactual pairs from real clinical trials with reported outcomes. For settings where strict counterfactual supervision is available, such as paired outcome measures or dose-ranging study arms within the same trial, we train models with supervised fine-tuning. For broader settings where only approximate counterfactual pairs can be retrieved, we optimize models with reinforcement learning using verifiable rewards based on downstream benchmark correctness. We further augment training with synthetic reasoning traces that provide causally plausible explanations for local counterfactual transitions. Using this pipeline, we train language models under 10B parameters, including Qwen3.5-9B, and evaluate them on clinical trial outcome prediction. We aim to show that DeepImagine consistently improves over untuned language models and traditional correlational baselines. Finally, we aim to show that the learned reasoning trajectories provide interpretable signals about how models represent trial-level mechanisms, suggesting a practical path toward more mechanistic and scientifically useful biomedical language models.