Jonathan Ethier

Muyao Chen, Mathieu Châteauvert, Jonathan Ethier

This paper discusses recent advancements made in the fast prediction of signal power in mmWave communications environments. Using machine learning (ML) it is possible to train models that provide power estimates with both good accuracy and with real-time simulation speeds. Work involving improved training data pre-processing as well as 3D predictions with arbitrary transmitter height is discussed.

Ryan Dempsey, Jonathan Ethier

Path loss prediction for wireless communications is highly dependent on the local environment. Propagation models including clutter information have been shown to significantly increase model accuracy. This paper explores the application of deep learning to satellite imagery to identify environmental clutter types automatically. Recognizing these clutter types has numerous uses, but our main application is to use clutter information to enhance propagation prediction models. Knowing the type of obstruction (tree, building, and further classifications) can improve the prediction accuracy of key propagation metrics such as path loss.

Jonathan Ethier, Mathieu Chateauvert

Propagation modeling is a crucial tool for successful wireless deployments and spectrum planning with the demand for high modeling accuracy continuing to grow. Recognizing that detailed knowledge of the physical environment (terrain and clutter) is essential, we propose a novel approach that uses environmental information for predictions. Instead of relying on complex, detail-intensive models, we explore the use of simplified scalar features involving the total obstruction depth along the direct path from transmitter to receiver. Obstacle depth offers a streamlined, yet surprisingly accurate, method for predicting wireless signal propagation, providing a practical solution for efficient and effective wireless network planning.

Ryan G. Dempsey, Jonathan Ethier, Halim Yanikomeroglu

Radio deployments and spectrum planning benefit from path loss predictions. Obstructions along a communications link are often considered implicitly or through derived metrics such as representative clutter height or total obstruction depth. In this paper, we propose a path-specific path loss prediction method that uses convolutional neural networks to automatically perform feature extraction from 2-D obstruction height maps. Our methods result in low prediction error in a variety of environments without requiring derived metrics.

Alexis Bose, Jonathan Ethier, Paul Guinand

This paper introduces Target Strangeness, a novel difficulty estimator for conformal prediction (CP) that offers an alternative approach for normalizing prediction intervals (PIs). By assessing how atypical a prediction is within the context of its nearest neighbours' target distribution, Target Strangeness can surpass the current state-of-the-art performance. This novel difficulty estimator is evaluated against others in the context of several conformal regression experiments.

Ryan G. Dempsey, Jonathan Ethier, Halim Yanikomeroglu

Path loss modeling is a widely used technique for estimating point-to-point losses along a communications link from transmitter (Tx) to receiver (Rx). Accurate path loss predictions can optimize use of the radio frequency spectrum and minimize unwanted interference. Modern path loss modeling often leverages data-driven approaches, using machine learning to train models on drive test measurement datasets. Drive tests primarily represent downlink scenarios, where the Tx is located on a building and the Rx is located on a moving vehicle. Consequently, trained models are frequently reserved for downlink coverage estimation, lacking representation of uplink scenarios. In this paper, we demonstrate that data augmentation can be used to train a path loss model that is generalized to uplink, downlink, and backhaul scenarios, training using only downlink drive test measurements. By adding a small number of synthetic samples representing uplink scenarios to the training set, root mean squared error is reduced by > 8 dB on uplink examples in the test set.

Ryan G. Dempsey, Jonathan Ethier, Halim Yanikomeroglu

Path loss prediction is a beneficial tool for efficient use of the radio frequency spectrum. Building on prior research on high-resolution map-based path loss models, this paper studies convolutional neural network input representations in more detail. We investigate different methods of representing scalar features in convolutional neural networks. Specifically, we compare using frequency and distance as input channels to convolutional layers or as scalar inputs to regression layers. We assess model performance using three different feature configurations and find that representing scalar features as image channels results in the strongest generalization.

Jonathan Ethier

Traditional and modern machine learning-based path loss models typically assume a constant prediction variance. We propose a neural network that jointly predicts the mean and link-specific variance by minimizing a Gaussian negative log-likelihood, enabling heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates. We compare shared, partially shared, and independent-parameter architectures using accuracy, calibration, and sharpness metrics on blind test sets from large public RF drive-test datasets. The shared-parameter architecture performs best, achieving an RMSE of 7.4 dB, 95.1 percent coverage for 95 percent prediction intervals, and a mean interval width of 29.6 dB. These uncertainty estimates further support link-specific coverage margins, improve RF planning and interference analyses, and provide effective self-diagnostics of model weaknesses.

Jonathan Ethier, Mathieu Chateauvert, Ryan G. Dempsey et al.

Wireless communications rely on path loss modeling, which is most effective when it includes the physical details of the propagation environment. Acquiring this data has historically been challenging, but geographic information systems data is becoming increasingly available with higher resolution and accuracy. Access to such details enables propagation models to more accurately predict coverage and account for interference in wireless deployments. Machine learning-based modeling can significantly support this effort, with feature based approaches allowing for accurate, efficient, and scalable propagation modeling. Building on previous work, we introduce an extended set of features that improves prediction accuracy while, most importantly, proving model generalization through rigorous statistical assessment and the use of test set holdouts.

Alexis Bose, Jonathan Ethier, Ryan G. Dempsey et al.

This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of machine learning (ML)-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a 2-D map-based ML path loss model [2]. Utilizing diverse difficulty estimators, we construct 95% confidence prediction intervals (PIs) that are statistically robust. Our experiments demonstrate that CPS models, trained on Toronto datasets, generalize effectively to other cities such as Vancouver and Montreal, maintaining high coverage and reliability. Furthermore, the employed difficulty estimators identify challenging samples, leading to measurable reductions in RMSE as dataset difficulty decreases. These findings highlight the effectiveness of scalable and reliable uncertainty estimation through CPS in wireless network modeling, offering important potential insights for network planning, operations, and spectrum management.

Alexis Bose, Jonathan Ethier, Paul Guinand

This paper introduces multimodal conformal regression. Traditionally confined to scenarios with solely numerical input features, conformal prediction is now extended to multimodal contexts through our methodology, which harnesses internal features from complex neural network architectures processing images and unstructured text. Our findings highlight the potential for internal neural network features, extracted from convergence points where multimodal information is combined, to be used by conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals (PIs). This capability paves new paths for deploying conformal prediction in domains abundant with multimodal data, enabling a broader range of problems to benefit from guaranteed distribution-free uncertainty quantification.

Ozan Ozyegen, Sanaz Mohammadjafari, Karim El mokhtari et al.

Accurate radio frequency power prediction in a geographic region is a computationally expensive part of finding the optimal transmitter location using a ray tracing software. We empirically analyze the viability of deep learning models to speed up this process. Specifically, deep learning methods including CNNs and UNET are typically used for segmentation, and can also be employed in power prediction tasks. We consider a dataset that consists of radio frequency power values for five different regions with four different frame dimensions. We compare deep learning-based prediction models including RadioUNET and four different variations of the UNET model for the power prediction task. More complex UNET variations improve the model on higher resolution frames such as 256x256. However, using the same models on lower resolutions results in overfitting and simpler models perform better. Our detailed numerical analysis shows that the deep learning models are effective in power prediction and they are able to generalize well to the new regions.