Christian Wagner

Direnc Pekaslan, Jose Maria Alonso-Moral, Kasun Bandara et al.

This paper presents the real-world smart-meter dataset and offers an analysis of solutions derived from the Energy Prediction Technical Challenges, focusing primarily on two key competitions: the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society (IEEE-CIS) Technical Challenge on Energy Prediction from Smart Meter data in 2020 (named EP) and its follow-up challenge at the IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE) in 2021 (named as XEP). These competitions focus on accurate energy consumption forecasting and the importance of interpretability in understanding the underlying factors. The challenge aims to predict monthly and yearly estimated consumption for households, addressing the accurate billing problem with limited historical smart meter data. The dataset comprises 3,248 smart meters, with varying data availability ranging from a minimum of one month to a year. This paper delves into the challenges, solutions and analysing issues related to the provided real-world smart meter data, developing accurate predictions at the household level, and introducing evaluation criteria for assessing interpretability. Additionally, this paper discusses aspects beyond the competitions: opportunities for energy disaggregation and pattern detection applications at the household level, significance of communicating energy-driven factors for optimised billing, and emphasising the importance of responsible AI and data privacy considerations. These aspects provide insights into the broader implications and potential advancements in energy consumption prediction. Overall, these competitions provide a dataset for residential energy research and serve as a catalyst for exploring accurate forecasting, enhancing interpretability, and driving progress towards the discussion of various aspects such as energy disaggregation, demand response programs or behavioural interventions.

Ruizhe Li, Grazziela Figueredo, Dorothee Auer et al.

Deformable image registration (alignment) is highly sought after in numerous clinical applications, such as computer aided diagnosis and disease progression analysis. Deep Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN)-based image registration methods have demonstrated advantages in terms of registration accuracy and computational speed. However, while most methods excel at global alignment, they often perform worse in aligning local regions. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a mask-guided encoder-decoder DCNN-based image registration method, named as MrRegNet. This approach employs a multi-resolution encoder for feature extraction and subsequently estimates multi-resolution displacement fields in the decoder to handle the substantial deformation of images. Furthermore, segmentation masks are employed to direct the model's attention toward aligning local regions. The results show that the proposed method outperforms traditional methods like Demons and a well-known deep learning method, VoxelMorph, on a public 3D brain MRI dataset (OASIS) and a local 2D brain MRI dataset with large deformations. Importantly, the image alignment accuracies are significantly improved at local regions guided by segmentation masks. Github link:https://github.com/ruizhe-l/MrRegNet.

Ruizhe Li, Matteo Bastiani, Dorothee Auer et al.

Brain age estimation based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an active research area in early diagnosis of some neurodegenerative diseases (e.g. Alzheimer, Parkinson, Huntington, etc.) for elderly people or brain underdevelopment for the young group. Deep learning methods have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many medical image analysis tasks, including brain age estimation. However, the performance and generalisability of the deep learning model are highly dependent on the quantity and quality of the training data set. Both collecting and annotating brain MRI data are extremely time-consuming. In this paper, to overcome the data scarcity problem, we propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) based image synthesis method. Different from the existing GAN-based methods, we integrate a task-guided branch (a regression model for age estimation) to the end of the generator in GAN. By adding a task-guided loss to the conventional GAN loss, the learned low-dimensional latent space and the synthesised images are more task-specific. It helps to boost the performance of the down-stream task by combining the synthesised images and real images for model training. The proposed method was evaluated on a public brain MRI data set for age estimation. Our proposed method outperformed (statistically significant) a deep convolutional neural network based regression model and the GAN-based image synthesis method without the task-guided branch. More importantly, it enables the identification of age-related brain regions in the image space. The code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/ruizhe-l/tgb-gan).

Chao Chen, Christian Wagner, Jonathan M. Garibaldi

Since their introduction, fuzzy sets and systems have become an important area of research known for its versatility in modelling, knowledge representation and reasoning, and increasingly its potential within the context explainable AI. While the applications of fuzzy systems are diverse, there has been comparatively little advancement in their design from a machine learning perspective. In other words, while representations such as neural networks have benefited from a boom in learning capability driven by an increase in computational performance in combination with advances in their training mechanisms and available tool, in particular gradient descent, the impact on fuzzy system design has been limited. In this paper, we discuss gradient-descent-based optimisation of fuzzy systems, focussing in particular on automatic differentiation -- crucial to neural network learning -- with a view to free fuzzy system designers from intricate derivative computations, allowing for more focus on the functional and explainability aspects of their design. As a starting point, we present a use case in FuzzyR which demonstrates how current fuzzy inference system implementations can be adjusted to leverage powerful features of automatic differentiation tools sets, discussing its potential for the future of fuzzy system design.

J Navrro, C Wagner, Uwe Aickelin et al.

Quality of life assessment represents a key process of deciding treatment success and viability. As such, patients' perceptions of their functional status and well-being are important inputs for impairment assessment. Given that patient completed questionnaires are often used to assess patient status and determine future treatment options, it is important to know the level of agreement of the words used by patients and different groups of medical professionals. In this paper, we propose a measure called the Agreement Ratio which provides a ratio of overall agreement when modelling words through Fuzzy Sets (FSs). The measure has been specifically designed for assessing this agreement in fuzzy sets which are generated from data such as patient responses. The measure relies on using the Jaccard Similarity Measure for comparing the different levels of agreement in the FSs generated.

Ruizhe Li, Dorothee Auer, Christian Wagner et al.

Deep learning based image segmentation has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many medical applications such as lesion quantification, organ detection, etc. However, most of the methods rely on supervised learning, which require a large set of high-quality labeled data. Data annotation is generally an extremely time-consuming process. To address this problem, we propose a generic semi-supervised learning framework for image segmentation based on a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN). An encoder-decoder based DCNN is initially trained using a few annotated training samples. This initially trained model is then copied into sub-models and improved iteratively using random subsets of unlabeled data with pseudo labels generated from models trained in the previous iteration. The number of sub-models is gradually decreased to one in the final iteration. We evaluate the proposed method on a public grand-challenge dataset for skin lesion segmentation. Our method is able to significantly improve beyond fully supervised model learning by incorporating unlabeled data.

Polla Fattah, Uwe Aickelin, Christian Wagner

An important issue in public goods game is whether player's behaviour changes over time, and if so, how significant it is. In this game players can be classified into different groups according to the level of their participation in the public good. This problem can be considered as a concept drift problem by asking the amount of change that happens to the clusters of players over a sequence of game rounds. In this study we present a method for measuring changes in clusters with the same items over discrete time points using external clustering validation indices and area under the curve. External clustering indices were originally used to measure the difference between suggested clusters in terms of clustering algorithms and ground truth labels for items provided by experts. Instead of different cluster label comparison, we use these indices to compare between clusters of any two consecutive time points or between the first time point and the remaining time points to measure the difference between clusters through time points. In theory, any external clustering indices can be used to measure changes for any traditional (non-temporal) clustering algorithm, due to the fact that any time point alone is not carrying any temporal information. For the public goods game, our results indicate that the players are changing over time but the change is smooth and relatively constant between any two time points.

Simon Miller, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin et al.

An important role carried out by cyber-security experts is the assessment of proposed computer systems, during their design stage. This task is fraught with difficulties and uncertainty, making the knowledge provided by human experts essential for successful assessment. Today, the increasing number of progressively complex systems has led to an urgent need to produce tools that support the expert-led process of system-security assessment. In this research, we use weighted averages (WAs) and ordered weighted averages (OWAs) with evolutionary algorithms (EAs) to create aggregation operators that model parts of the assessment process. We show how individual overall ratings for security components can be produced from ratings of their characteristics, and how these individual overall ratings can be aggregated to produce overall rankings of potential attacks on a system. As well as the identification of salient attacks and weak points in a prospective system, the proposed method also highlights which factors and security components contribute most to a component's difficulty and attack ranking respectively. A real world scenario is used in which experts were asked to rank a set of technical attacks, and to answer a series of questions about the security components that are the subject of the attacks. The work shows how finding good aggregation operators, and identifying important components and factors of a cyber-security problem can be automated. The resulting operators have the potential for use as decision aids for systems designers and cyber-security experts, increasing the amount of assessment that can be achieved with the limited resources available.

Javier Navarro, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin et al.

In the context of cancer treatment and surgery, quality of life assessment is a crucial part of determining treatment success and viability. In order to assess it, patients completed questionnaires which employ words to capture aspects of patients well-being are the norm. As the results of these questionnaires are often used to assess patient progress and to determine future treatment options, it is important to establish that the words used are interpreted in the same way by both patients and medical professionals. In this paper, we capture and model patients perceptions and associated uncertainty about the words used to describe the level of their physical function used in the highly common (in Sarcoma Services) Toronto Extremity Salvage Score (TESS) questionnaire. The paper provides detail about the interval-valued data capture as well as the subsequent modelling of the data using fuzzy sets. Based on an initial sample of participants, we use Jaccard similarity on the resulting words models to show that there may be considerable differences in the interpretation of commonly used questionnaire terms, thus presenting a very real risk of miscommunication between patients and medical professionals as well as within the group of medical professionals.

Polla Fattah, Uwe Aickelin, Christian Wagner

This study optimises manually derived rule-based expert system classification of objects according to changes in their properties over time. One of the key challenges that this study tries to address is how to classify objects that exhibit changes in their behaviour over time, for example how to classify companies' share price stability over a period of time or how to classify students' preferences for subjects while they are progressing through school. A specific case the paper considers is the strategy of players in public goods games (as common in economics) across multiple consecutive games. Initial classification starts from expert definitions specifying class allocation for players based on aggregated attributes of the temporal data. Based on these initial classifications, the optimisation process tries to find an improved classifier which produces the best possible compact classes of objects (players) for every time point in the temporal data. The compactness of the classes is measured by a cost function based on internal cluster indices like the Dunn Index, distance measures like Euclidean distance or statistically derived measures like standard deviation. The paper discusses the approach in the context of incorporating changing player strategies in the aforementioned public good games, where common classification approaches so far do not consider such changes in behaviour resulting from learning or in-game experience. By using the proposed process for classifying temporal data and the actual players' contribution during the games, we aim to produce a more refined classification which in turn may inform the interpretation of public goods game data.

Josie McCulloch, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin

Reasoning with fuzzy sets can be achieved through measures such as similarity and distance. However, these measures can often give misleading results when considered independently, for example giving the same value for two different pairs of fuzzy sets. This is particularly a problem where many fuzzy sets are generated from real data, and while two different measures may be used to automatically compare such fuzzy sets, it is difficult to interpret two different results. This is especially true where a large number of fuzzy sets are being compared as part of a reasoning system. This paper introduces a method for combining the results of multiple measures into a single measure for the purpose of analysing and comparing fuzzy sets. The combined measure alleviates ambiguous results and aids in the automatic comparison of fuzzy sets. The properties of the combined measure are given, and demonstrations are presented with discussions on the advantages over using a single measure.

Josie C. McCullochy, Chris J. Hinde, Christian Wagner et al.

The measure of distance between two fuzzy sets is a fundamental tool within fuzzy set theory, however, distance measures currently within the literature use a crisp value to represent the distance between fuzzy sets. A real valued distance measure is developed into a fuzzy distance measure which better reflects the uncertainty inherent in fuzzy sets and a fuzzy directional distance measure is presented, which accounts for the direction of change between fuzzy sets. A multiplicative version is explored as a full maximal assignment is computationally intractable so an intermediate solution is offered.

Josie McCulloch, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin

The measure of distance between two fuzzy sets is a fundamental tool within fuzzy set theory. However, current distance measures within the literature do not account for the direction of change between fuzzy sets; a useful concept in a variety of applications, such as Computing With Words. In this paper, we highlight this utility and introduce a distance measure which takes the direction between sets into account. We provide details of its application for normal and non-normal, as well as convex and non-convex fuzzy sets. We demonstrate the new distance measure using real data from the MovieLens dataset and establish the benefits of measuring the direction between fuzzy sets.

Josie McCulloch, Christian Wagner, Uwe Aickelin

Similarity measures provide one of the core tools that enable reasoning about fuzzy sets. While many types of similarity measures exist for type-1 and interval type-2 fuzzy sets, there are very few similarity measures that enable the comparison of general type-2 fuzzy sets. In this paper, we introduce a general method for extending existing interval type-2 similarity measures to similarity measures for general type-2 fuzzy sets. Specifically, we show how similarity measures for interval type-2 fuzzy sets can be employed in conjunction with the zSlices based general type-2 representation for fuzzy sets to provide measures of similarity which preserve all the common properties (i.e. reflexivity, symmetry, transitivity and overlapping) of the original interval type-2 similarity measure. We demonstrate examples of such extended fuzzy measures and provide comparisons between (different types of) interval and general type-2 fuzzy measures.