Dong Xu

Hui Xi, Dong Xu, Young-Jun Son

A novel modeling framework is proposed for dynamic scheduling of projects and workforce assignment in open source software development (OSSD). The goal is to help project managers in OSSD distribute workforce to multiple projects to achieve high efficiency in software development (e.g. high workforce utilization and short development time) while ensuring the quality of deliverables (e.g. code modularity and software security). The proposed framework consists of two models: 1) a system dynamic model coupled with a meta-heuristic to obtain an optimal schedule of software development projects considering their attributes (e.g. priority, effort, duration) and 2) an agent based model to represent the development community as a social network, where development managers form an optimal team for each project and balance the workload among multiple scheduled projects based on the optimal schedule obtained from the system dynamic model. To illustrate the proposed framework, a software enhancement request process in Kuali foundation is used as a case study. Survey data collected from the Kuali development managers, project managers and actual historical enhancement requests have been used to construct the proposed models. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the impact of varying parameters on the considered efficiency and quality.

Yejing Wang, Dong Xu, Xiangyu Zhao et al.

GPRec explicitly categorizes users into groups in a learnable manner and aligns them with corresponding group embeddings. We design the dual group embedding space to offer a diverse perspective on group preferences by contrasting positive and negative patterns. On the individual level, GPRec identifies personal preferences from ID-like features and refines the obtained individual representations to be independent of group ones, thereby providing a robust complement to the group-level modeling. We also present various strategies for the flexible integration of GPRec into various DRS models. Rigorous testing of GPRec on three public datasets has demonstrated significant improvements in recommendation quality.

Zhengchao Yang, Mithun Ghosh, Anish Saha et al.

Ads demand forecasting for Walmart's ad products plays a critical role in enabling effective resource planning, allocation, and management of ads performance. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive demand forecasting system that tackles hierarchical time series forecasting in business settings. Though traditional hierarchical reconciliation methods ensure forecasting coherence, they often trade off accuracy for coherence especially at lower levels and fail to capture the seasonality unique to each time-series in the hierarchy. Thus, we propose a novel framework "Multi-Stage Hierarchical Forecasting Reconciliation and Adjustment (Multi-Stage HiFoReAd)" to address the challenges of preserving seasonality, ensuring coherence, and improving accuracy. Our system first utilizes diverse models, ensembled through Bayesian Optimization (BO), achieving base forecasts. The generated base forecasts are then passed into the Multi-Stage HiFoReAd framework. The initial stage refines the hierarchy using Top-Down forecasts and "harmonic alignment." The second stage aligns the higher levels' forecasts using MinTrace algorithm, following which the last two levels undergo "harmonic alignment" and "stratified scaling", to eventually achieve accurate and coherent forecasts across the whole hierarchy. Our experiments on Walmart's internal Ads-demand dataset and 3 other public datasets, each with 4 hierarchical levels, demonstrate that the average Absolute Percentage Error from the cross-validation sets improve from 3% to 40% across levels against BO-ensemble of models (LGBM, MSTL+ETS, Prophet) as well as from 1.2% to 92.9% against State-Of-The-Art models. In addition, the forecasts at all hierarchical levels are proved to be coherent. The proposed framework has been deployed and leveraged by Walmart's ads, sales and operations teams to track future demands, make informed decisions and plan resources.