Vivian Lin

Michele Caprio, Souradeep Dutta, Kuk Jin Jang et al.

Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distribution shifts are important goals in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Although Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) allow for uncertainty in the predictions to be assessed, different sources of predictive uncertainty cannot be distinguished properly. We present Credal Bayesian Deep Learning (CBDL). Heuristically, CBDL allows to train an (uncountably) infinite ensemble of BNNs, using only finitely many elements. This is possible thanks to prior and likelihood finitely generated credal sets (FGCSs), a concept from the imprecise probability literature. Intuitively, convex combinations of a finite collection of prior-likelihood pairs are able to represent infinitely many such pairs. After training, CBDL outputs a set of posteriors on the parameters of the neural network. At inference time, such posterior set is used to derive a set of predictive distributions that is in turn utilized to distinguish between (predictive) aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and to quantify them. The predictive set also produces either (i) a collection of outputs enjoying desirable probabilistic guarantees, or (ii) the single output that is deemed the best, that is, the one having the highest predictive lower probability -- another imprecise-probabilistic concept. CBDL is more robust than single BNNs to prior and likelihood misspecification, and to distribution shift. We show that CBDL is better at quantifying and disentangling different types of (predictive) uncertainties than single BNNs and ensemble of BNNs. In addition, we apply CBDL to two case studies to demonstrate its downstream tasks capabilities: one, for motion prediction in autonomous driving scenarios, and two, to model blood glucose and insulin dynamics for artificial pancreas control. We show that CBDL performs better when compared to an ensemble of BNNs baseline.

Vivian Lin, Kuk Jin Jang, Souradeep Dutta et al.

Deep neural networks have repeatedly been shown to be non-robust to the uncertainties of the real world, even to naturally occurring ones. A vast majority of current approaches have focused on data-augmentation methods to expand the range of perturbations that the classifier is exposed to while training. A relatively unexplored avenue that is equally promising involves sanitizing an image as a preprocessing step, depending on the nature of perturbation. In this paper, we propose to use control for learned models to recover from distribution shifts online. Specifically, our method applies a sequence of semantic-preserving transformations to bring the shifted data closer in distribution to the training set, as measured by the Wasserstein distance. Our approach is to 1) formulate the problem of distribution shift recovery as a Markov decision process, which we solve using reinforcement learning, 2) identify a minimum condition on the data for our method to be applied, which we check online using a binary classifier, and 3) employ dimensionality reduction through orthonormal projection to aid in our estimates of the Wasserstein distance. We provide theoretical evidence that orthonormal projection preserves characteristics of the data at the distributional level. We apply our distribution shift recovery approach to the ImageNet-C benchmark for distribution shifts, demonstrating an improvement in average accuracy of up to 14.21% across a variety of state-of-the-art ImageNet classifiers. We further show that our method generalizes to composites of shifts from the ImageNet-C benchmark, achieving improvements in average accuracy of up to 9.81%. Finally, we test our method on CIFAR-100-C and report improvements of up to 8.25%.