Hongyuan Mei

Siqiao Xue, Xiaoming Shi, Zhixuan Chu et al.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Yunfei Xie, Kevin Wang, Bobby Cheng et al.

Multi-turn, multi-agent LLM game evaluations often exhibit substantial run-to-run variance. In long-horizon interactions, small early deviations compound across turns and are amplified by multi-agent coupling. This biases win rate estimates and makes rankings unreliable across repeated tournaments. Prompt choice worsens this further by producing different effective policies. We address both instability and underperformance with MEMO (Memory-augmented MOdel context optimization), a self-play framework that optimizes inference-time context by coupling retention and exploration. Retention maintains a persistent memory bank that stores structured insights from self-play trajectories and injects them as priors during later play. Exploration runs tournament-style prompt evolution with uncertainty-aware selection via TrueSkill, and uses prioritized replay to revisit rare and decisive states. Across five text-based games, MEMO raises mean win rate from 25.1% to 49.5% for GPT-4o-mini and from 20.9% to 44.3% for Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct, using $2,000$ self-play games per task. Run-to-run variance also drops, giving more stable rankings across prompt variations. These results suggest that multi-agent LLM game performance and robustness have substantial room for improvement through context optimization. MEMO achieves the largest gains in negotiation and imperfect-information games, while RL remains more effective in perfect-information settings. All code is open-source and available here: https://github.com/openverse-ai/MEMO

Hongyu Zhao, Hao Tan, Hongyuan Mei

Adapter-tuning is a paradigm that transfers a pretrained language model to downstream tasks by adding and tuning a small number of new parameters. Previously proposed adapter architectures are all feed-forward neural networks. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of using tiny-attention -- i.e., attention with extremely small per-head dimensionality -- as adapters. Our tiny-attention adapter learns to modify the hidden states at each position directly conditioned on the hidden states at all the other positions, which is missed by the previously proposed adapters. Moreover, we view its multiple attention heads as a mixture of experts and propose to average their weights during deployment, which further reduces its inference computation cost. On the GLUE benchmark, our tiny-attention adapter outperforms the other parameter-efficient transfer learning methods as well as full fine-tuning while only updating 0.05% of the parameters. On the FewGLUE benchmark, its performance is comparable to that of GPT-3 and PET.

Siqiao Xue, Fan Zhou, Yi Xu et al.

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a result, our system possesses the capability to understand complex financial queries, such as "How should I manage my investments during inflation?", and provide informed responses. Furthermore, our system incorporates a local knowledge base and a search engine to retrieve relevant information. The final responses are conditioned on the search results and include proper citations to the sources, thus enjoying an enhanced credibility. Through a range of finance-related questions, we have demonstrated the superior performance of our system compared to other models. To experience our system firsthand, users can interact with our live demo at https://weaverbird.ttic.edu, as well as watch our 2-min video illustration at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yofgeqnlrMc.

Siqiao Xue, Xiaoming Shi, James Y Zhang et al.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Takuma Yoneda, Jiading Fang, Peng Li et al.

There has been a significant research interest in employing large language models to empower intelligent robots with complex reasoning. Existing work focuses on harnessing their abilities to reason about the histories of their actions and observations. In this paper, we explore a new dimension in which large language models may benefit robotics planning. In particular, we propose Statler, a framework in which large language models are prompted to maintain an estimate of the world state, which are often unobservable, and track its transition as new actions are taken. Our framework then conditions each action on the estimate of the current world state. Despite being conceptually simple, our Statler framework significantly outperforms strong competing methods (e.g., Code-as-Policies) on several robot planning tasks. Additionally, it has the potential advantage of scaling up to more challenging long-horizon planning tasks.

Chen Feng Tsai, Xiaochen Zhou, Sierra S. Liu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 have recently demonstrated their remarkable abilities of communicating with human users. In this technical report, we take an initiative to investigate their capacities of playing text games, in which a player has to understand the environment and respond to situations by having dialogues with the game world. Our experiments show that ChatGPT performs competitively compared to all the existing systems but still exhibits a low level of intelligence. Precisely, ChatGPT can not construct the world model by playing the game or even reading the game manual; it may fail to leverage the world knowledge that it already has; it cannot infer the goal of each step as the game progresses. Our results open up new research questions at the intersection of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing.

Shuo Xie, Jiahao Qiu, Ankita Pasad et al.

While transferring a pretrained language model, common approaches conventionally attach their task-specific classifiers to the top layer and adapt all the pretrained layers. We investigate whether one could make a task-specific selection on which subset of the layers to adapt and where to place the classifier. The goal is to reduce the computation cost of transfer learning methods (e.g. fine-tuning or adapter-tuning) without sacrificing its performance. We propose to select layers based on the variability of their hidden states given a task-specific corpus. We say a layer is already "well-specialized" in a task if the within-class variability of its hidden states is low relative to the between-class variability. Our variability metric is cheap to compute and doesn't need any training or hyperparameter tuning. It is robust to data imbalance and data scarcity. Extensive experiments on the GLUE benchmark demonstrate that selecting layers based on our metric can yield significantly stronger performance than using the same number of top layers and often match the performance of fine-tuning or adapter-tuning the entire language model.

Hongyu Zhao, Kangrui Wang, Mo Yu et al.

Language models have been shown to perform remarkably well on a wide range of natural language processing tasks. In this paper, we propose LEAP, a novel system that uses language models to perform multi-step logical reasoning and incorporates explicit planning into the inference procedure. Explicit planning enables the system to make more informed reasoning decisions at each step by looking ahead into their future effects. Moreover, we propose a training strategy that safeguards the planning process from being led astray by spurious features. Our full system significantly outperforms other competing methods on multiple standard datasets. When using small T5 models as its core selection and deduction components, our system performs competitively compared to GPT-3 despite having only about 1B parameters (i.e., 175 times smaller than GPT-3). When using GPT-3.5, it significantly outperforms chain-of-thought prompting on the challenging PrOntoQA dataset. We have conducted extensive empirical studies to demonstrate that explicit planning plays a crucial role in the system's performance.

Peng Ding, Jiading Fang, Peng Li et al.

Large language models such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 have recently achieved astonishing performance on a variety of natural language processing tasks. In this paper, we propose MANGO, a benchmark to evaluate their capabilities to perform text-based mapping and navigation. Our benchmark includes 53 mazes taken from a suite of textgames: each maze is paired with a walkthrough that visits every location but does not cover all possible paths. The task is question-answering: for each maze, a large language model reads the walkthrough and answers hundreds of mapping and navigation questions such as "How should you go to Attic from West of House?" and "Where are we if we go north and east from Cellar?". Although these questions are easy to humans, it turns out that even GPT-4, the best-to-date language model, performs poorly at answering them. Further, our experiments suggest that a strong mapping and navigation ability would benefit large language models in performing relevant downstream tasks, such as playing textgames. Our MANGO benchmark will facilitate future research on methods that improve the mapping and navigation capabilities of language models. We host our leaderboard, data, code, and evaluation program at https://mango.ttic.edu and https://github.com/oaklight/mango/.

Jiading Fang, Xiangshan Tan, Shengjie Lin et al.

If robots are to work effectively alongside people, they must be able to interpret natural language references to objects in their 3D environment. Understanding 3D referring expressions is challenging -- it requires the ability to both parse the 3D structure of the scene and correctly ground free-form language in the presence of distraction and clutter. We introduce Transcrib3D, an approach that brings together 3D detection methods and the emergent reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Transcrib3D uses text as the unifying medium, which allows us to sidestep the need to learn shared representations connecting multi-modal inputs, which would require massive amounts of annotated 3D data. As a demonstration of its effectiveness, Transcrib3D achieves state-of-the-art results on 3D reference resolution benchmarks, with a great leap in performance from previous multi-modality baselines. To improve upon zero-shot performance and facilitate local deployment on edge computers and robots, we propose self-correction for fine-tuning that trains smaller models, resulting in performance close to that of large models. We show that our method enables a real robot to perform pick-and-place tasks given queries that contain challenging referring expressions. Project site is at https://ripl.github.io/Transcrib3D.

Xuekai Zhu, Daixuan Cheng, Dinghuai Zhang et al. · stanford, tsinghua

We propose FlowRL: matching the full reward distribution via flow balancing instead of maximizing rewards in large language model (LLM) reinforcement learning (RL). Recent advanced reasoning models adopt reward-maximizing methods (\eg, PPO and GRPO), which tend to over-optimize dominant reward signals while neglecting less frequent but valid reasoning paths, thus reducing diversity. In contrast, we transform scalar rewards into a normalized target distribution using a learnable partition function, and then minimize the reverse KL divergence between the policy and the target distribution. We implement this idea as a flow-balanced optimization method that promotes diverse exploration and generalizable reasoning trajectories. We conduct experiments on math and code reasoning tasks: FlowRL achieves a significant average improvement of $10.0\%$ over GRPO and $5.1\%$ over PPO on math benchmarks, and performs consistently better on code reasoning tasks. These results highlight reward distribution-matching as a key step toward efficient exploration and diverse reasoning in LLM reinforcement learning.

Aniket Vashishtha, Qirun Dai, Hongyuan Mei et al.

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

Fan Zhou, Chen Pan, Lintao Ma et al.

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

Xiaoming Shi, Siqiao Xue, Kangrui Wang et al.

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

Li Du, Hongyuan Mei, Jason Eisner

To predict the next token, autoregressive models ordinarily examine the past. Could they also benefit from also examining hypothetical futures? We consider a novel Transformer-based autoregressive architecture that estimates the next-token distribution by extrapolating multiple continuations of the past, according to some proposal distribution, and attending to these extended strings. This architecture draws insights from classical AI systems such as board game players: when making a local decision, a policy may benefit from exploring possible future trajectories and analyzing them. On multiple tasks including morphological inflection and Boolean satisfiability, our lookahead model is able to outperform the ordinary Transformer model of comparable size. However, on some tasks, it appears to be benefiting from the extra computation without actually using the lookahead information. We discuss possible variant architectures as well as future speedups.

Chao Qu, Xiaoyu Tan, Siqiao Xue et al.

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.

Chenghao Yang, Hongyuan Mei, Jason Eisner

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in the sequence updates a deductive database of facts (via domain-specific pattern-matching rules); future events are then conditioned on the database contents. They show how to convert such a symbolic system into a neuro-symbolic continuous-time generative model, in which each database fact and the possible event has a time-varying embedding that is derived from its symbolic provenance. In this paper, we modify both models, replacing their recurrent LSTM-based architectures with flatter attention-based architectures (Vaswani et al., 2017), which are simpler and more parallelizable. This does not appear to hurt our accuracy, which is comparable to or better than that of the original models as well as (where applicable) previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a).

Hongyuan Mei, Tom Wan, Jason Eisner

The log-likelihood of a generative model often involves both positive and negative terms. For a temporal multivariate point process, the negative term sums over all the possible event types at each time and also integrates over all the possible times. As a result, maximum likelihood estimation is expensive. We show how to instead apply a version of noise-contrastive estimation---a general parameter estimation method with a less expensive stochastic objective. Our specific instantiation of this general idea works out in an interestingly non-trivial way and has provable guarantees for its optimality, consistency and efficiency. On several synthetic and real-world datasets, our method shows benefits: for the model to achieve the same level of log-likelihood on held-out data, our method needs considerably fewer function evaluations and less wall-clock time.

Hongyuan Mei, Guanghui Qin, Minjie Xu et al.

Learning how to predict future events from patterns of past events is difficult when the set of possible event types is large. Training an unrestricted neural model might overfit to spurious patterns. To exploit domain-specific knowledge of how past events might affect an event's present probability, we propose using a temporal deductive database to track structured facts over time. Rules serve to prove facts from other facts and from past events. Each fact has a time-varying state---a vector computed by a neural net whose topology is determined by the fact's provenance, including its experience of past events. The possible event types at any time are given by special facts, whose probabilities are neurally modeled alongside their states. In both synthetic and real-world domains, we show that neural probabilistic models derived from concise Datalog programs improve prediction by encoding appropriate domain knowledge in their architecture.

Hongyuan Mei, Guanghui Qin, Jason Eisner

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable family of proposal distributions based on a type of bidirectional continuous-time LSTM: Bidirectionality lets the proposals condition on future observations, not just on the past as in particle filtering. Our method can sample an ensemble of possible complete sequences (particles), from which we form a single consensus prediction that has low Bayes risk under our chosen loss metric. We experiment in multiple synthetic and real domains, using different missingness mechanisms, and modeling the complete sequences in each domain with a neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner 2017). On held-out incomplete sequences, our method is effective at inferring the ground-truth unobserved events, with particle smoothing consistently improving upon particle filtering.

Shijia Liu, Hongyuan Mei, Adina Williams et al.

While idiosyncrasies of the Chinese classifier system have been a richly studied topic among linguists (Adams and Conklin, 1973; Erbaugh, 1986; Lakoff, 1986), not much work has been done to quantify them with statistical methods. In this paper, we introduce an information-theoretic approach to measuring idiosyncrasy; we examine how much the uncertainty in Mandarin Chinese classifiers can be reduced by knowing semantic information about the nouns that the classifiers modify. Using the empirical distribution of classifiers from the parsed Chinese Gigaword corpus (Graff et al., 2005), we compute the mutual information (in bits) between the distribution over classifiers and distributions over other linguistic quantities. We investigate whether semantic classes of nouns and adjectives differ in how much they reduce uncertainty in classifier choice, and find that it is not fully idiosyncratic; while there are no obvious trends for the majority of semantic classes, shape nouns reduce uncertainty in classifier choice the most.

Hongyuan Mei, Sheng Zhang, Kevin Duh et al.

Cross-lingual information extraction (CLIE) is an important and challenging task, especially in low resource scenarios. To tackle this challenge, we propose a training method, called Halo, which enforces the local region of each hidden state of a neural model to only generate target tokens with the same semantic structure tag. This simple but powerful technique enables a neural model to learn semantics-aware representations that are robust to noise, without introducing any extra parameter, thus yielding better generalization in both high and low resource settings.

Hongyuan Mei, Jason Eisner

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Hongyuan Mei, Mohit Bansal, Matthew R. Walter

We model coherent conversation continuation via RNN-based dialogue models equipped with a dynamic attention mechanism. Our attention-RNN language model dynamically increases the scope of attention on the history as the conversation continues, as opposed to standard attention (or alignment) models with a fixed input scope in a sequence-to-sequence model. This allows each generated word to be associated with the most relevant words in its corresponding conversation history. We evaluate the model on two popular dialogue datasets, the open-domain MovieTriples dataset and the closed-domain Ubuntu Troubleshoot dataset, and achieve significant improvements over the state-of-the-art and baselines on several metrics, including complementary diversity-based metrics, human evaluation, and qualitative visualizations. We also show that a vanilla RNN with dynamic attention outperforms more complex memory models (e.g., LSTM and GRU) by allowing for flexible, long-distance memory. We promote further coherence via topic modeling-based reranking.

Hang Chu, Hongyuan Mei, Mohit Bansal et al.

We propose a method for accurately localizing ground vehicles with the aid of satellite imagery. Our approach takes a ground image as input, and outputs the location from which it was taken on a georeferenced satellite image. We perform visual localization by estimating the co-occurrence probabilities between the ground and satellite images based on a ground-satellite feature dictionary. The method is able to estimate likelihoods over arbitrary locations without the need for a dense ground image database. We present a ranking-loss based algorithm that learns location-discriminative feature projection matrices that result in further improvements in accuracy. We evaluate our method on the Malaga and KITTI public datasets and demonstrate significant improvements over a baseline that performs exhaustive search.

Hongyuan Mei, Mohit Bansal, Matthew R. Walter

We propose an end-to-end, domain-independent neural encoder-aligner-decoder model for selective generation, i.e., the joint task of content selection and surface realization. Our model first encodes a full set of over-determined database event records via an LSTM-based recurrent neural network, then utilizes a novel coarse-to-fine aligner to identify the small subset of salient records to talk about, and finally employs a decoder to generate free-form descriptions of the aligned, selected records. Our model achieves the best selection and generation results reported to-date (with 59% relative improvement in generation) on the benchmark WeatherGov dataset, despite using no specialized features or linguistic resources. Using an improved k-nearest neighbor beam filter helps further. We also perform a series of ablations and visualizations to elucidate the contributions of our key model components. Lastly, we evaluate the generalizability of our model on the RoboCup dataset, and get results that are competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art, despite being severely data-starved.

Hongyuan Mei, Mohit Bansal, Matthew R. Walter

We propose a neural sequence-to-sequence model for direction following, a task that is essential to realizing effective autonomous agents. Our alignment-based encoder-decoder model with long short-term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM-RNN) translates natural language instructions to action sequences based upon a representation of the observable world state. We introduce a multi-level aligner that empowers our model to focus on sentence "regions" salient to the current world state by using multiple abstractions of the input sentence. In contrast to existing methods, our model uses no specialized linguistic resources (e.g., parsers) or task-specific annotations (e.g., seed lexicons). It is therefore generalizable, yet still achieves the best results reported to-date on a benchmark single-sentence dataset and competitive results for the limited-training multi-sentence setting. We analyze our model through a series of ablations that elucidate the contributions of the primary components of our model.