Yan Sun

Aobo Liang, Yan Sun, Nadra Guizani

In recent years, Transformer-based models (Transformers) have achieved significant success in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). However, previous works focus on extracting features either from the time domain or the frequency domain, which inadequately captures the trends and periodic characteristics. To address this issue, we propose a wavelet learning framework to model complex temporal dependencies of the time series data. The wavelet domain integrates both time and frequency information, allowing for the analysis of local characteristics of signals at different scales. Additionally, the Softmax self-attention mechanism used by Transformers has quadratic complexity, which leads to excessive computational costs when capturing long-term dependencies. Therefore, we propose a novel attention mechanism: Rotary Route Attention (RoRA). Unlike Softmax attention, RoRA utilizes rotary position embeddings to inject relative positional information to sequence tokens and introduces a small number of routing tokens $r$ to aggregate information from the $KV$ matrices and redistribute it to the $Q$ matrix, offering linear complexity. We further propose WaveRoRA, which leverages RoRA to capture inter-series dependencies in the wavelet domain. We conduct extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets. The results indicate that WaveRoRA outperforms existing state-of-the-art models while maintaining lower computational costs. Our code is available at https://github.com/Leopold2333/WaveRoRA.

Georgy Noarov, Soham Mallick, Tao Wang et al.

Top-$k$ decoding is a widely used method for sampling from LLMs: at each token, only the largest $k$ next-token-probabilities are kept, and the next token is sampled after re-normalizing them to sum to unity. Top-$k$ and other sampling methods are motivated by the intuition that true next-token distributions are sparse, and the noisy LLM probabilities need to be truncated. However, to our knowledge, a precise theoretical motivation for the use of top-$k$ decoding is missing. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework that both explains and generalizes top-$k$ decoding. We view decoding at a fixed token as the recovery of a sparse probability distribution. We consider \emph{Bregman decoders} obtained by minimizing a separable Bregman divergence (for both the \emph{primal} and \emph{dual} cases) with a sparsity-inducing $\ell_0$ regularization. Despite the combinatorial nature of the objective, we show how to optimize it efficiently for a large class of divergences. We show that the optimal decoding strategies are greedy, and further that the loss function is discretely convex in $k$, so that binary search provably and efficiently finds the optimal $k$. We show that top-$k$ decoding arises as a special case for the KL divergence, and identify new decoding strategies that have distinct behaviors (e.g., non-linearly up-weighting larger probabilities after re-normalization).

Tao Wang, Yan Sun, Edgar Dobriban

Conformal prediction can be used to construct prediction sets that cover the true outcome with a desired probability, but can sometimes lead to large prediction sets that are costly in practice. The most useful outcome is a singleton prediction-an unambiguous decision-yet existing efficiency-oriented methods primarily optimize average set size. Motivated by this, we propose a new nonconformity score that aims to minimize the probability of producing non-singleton sets. Starting from a non-convex constrained optimization problem as a motivation, we provide a geometric reformulation and associated algorithm for computing the nonconformity score and associated split conformal prediction sets in O(K) time for K-class problems. Using this score in split conformal prediction leads to our proposed Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction (SOCOP) method. We evaluate our method in experiments on image classification and LLM multiple-choice question-answering, comparing with standard nonconformity scores such as the (negative) label probability estimates and their cumulative distribution function; both of which are motivated by optimizing length. The results show that SOCOP increases singleton frequency (sometimes by over 20%) compared to the above scores, with minimal impact on average set size.

Xiaohou Shi, Ke Li, Aobo Liang et al.

In the past few years, time series foundation models have achieved superior predicting accuracy. However, real-world time series often exhibit significant diversity in their temporal patterns across different time spans and domains, making it challenging for a single model architecture to fit all complex scenarios. In addition, time series data may have multiple variables exhibiting complex correlations between each other. Recent mainstream works have focused on modeling times series in a channel-independent manner in both pretraining and finetuning stages, overlooking the valuable inter-series dependencies. To this end, we propose \textbf{Time Tracker} for better predictions on multivariate time series data. Firstly, we leverage sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers to handle the modeling of diverse time series patterns, thereby alleviating the learning difficulties of a single model while improving its generalization. Besides, we propose Any-variate Attention, enabling a unified model structure to seamlessly handle both univariate and multivariate time series, thereby supporting channel-independent modeling during pretraining and channel-mixed modeling for finetuning. Furthermore, we design a graph learning module that constructs relations among sequences from frequency-domain features, providing more precise guidance to capture inter-series dependencies in channel-mixed modeling. Based on these advancements, Time Tracker achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting accuracy, model generalization and adaptability.

Miaoxi Zhu, Yan Sun, Li Shen et al.

Minimax optimization is gaining increasing attention in modern machine learning applications. Driven by large-scale models and massive volumes of data collected from edge devices, as well as the concern to preserve client privacy, communication-efficient distributed minimax optimization algorithms become popular, such as Local Stochastic Gradient Descent Ascent (Local-SGDA), and Local Decentralized SGDA (Local-DSGDA). While most existing research on distributed minimax algorithms focuses on convergence rates, computation complexity, and communication efficiency, the generalization performance remains underdeveloped, whereas generalization ability is a pivotal indicator for evaluating the holistic performance of a model when fed with unknown data. In this paper, we propose the stability-based generalization analytical framework for Distributed-SGDA, which unifies two popular distributed minimax algorithms including Local-SGDA and Local-DSGDA, and conduct a comprehensive analysis of stability error, generalization gap, and population risk across different metrics under various settings, e.g., (S)C-(S)C, PL-SC, and NC-NC cases. Our theoretical results reveal the trade-off between the generalization gap and optimization error and suggest hyperparameters choice to obtain the optimal population risk. Numerical experiments for Local-SGDA and Local-DSGDA validate the theoretical results.