Kevin Murphy

Huiwen Chang, Han Zhang, Jarred Barber et al. · deepmind

We present Muse, a text-to-image Transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art image generation performance while being significantly more efficient than diffusion or autoregressive models. Muse is trained on a masked modeling task in discrete token space: given the text embedding extracted from a pre-trained large language model (LLM), Muse is trained to predict randomly masked image tokens. Compared to pixel-space diffusion models, such as Imagen and DALL-E 2, Muse is significantly more efficient due to the use of discrete tokens and requiring fewer sampling iterations; compared to autoregressive models, such as Parti, Muse is more efficient due to the use of parallel decoding. The use of a pre-trained LLM enables fine-grained language understanding, translating to high-fidelity image generation and the understanding of visual concepts such as objects, their spatial relationships, pose, cardinality etc. Our 900M parameter model achieves a new SOTA on CC3M, with an FID score of 6.06. The Muse 3B parameter model achieves an FID of 7.88 on zero-shot COCO evaluation, along with a CLIP score of 0.32. Muse also directly enables a number of image editing applications without the need to fine-tune or invert the model: inpainting, outpainting, and mask-free editing. More results are available at https://muse-model.github.io

David Dohan, Winnie Xu, Aitor Lewkowycz et al. · anthropic, deepmind

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Joseph Ortiz, Antoine Dedieu, Wolfgang Lehrach et al. · deepmind

Learning from previously collected data via behavioral cloning or offline reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful recipe for scaling generalist agents by avoiding the need for expensive online learning. Despite strong generalization in some respects, agents are often remarkably brittle to minor visual variations in control-irrelevant factors such as the background or camera viewpoint. In this paper, we present theDeepMind Control Visual Benchmark (DMC-VB), a dataset collected in the DeepMind Control Suite to evaluate the robustness of offline RL agents for solving continuous control tasks from visual input in the presence of visual distractors. In contrast to prior works, our dataset (a) combines locomotion and navigation tasks of varying difficulties, (b) includes static and dynamic visual variations, (c) considers data generated by policies with different skill levels, (d) systematically returns pairs of state and pixel observation, (e) is an order of magnitude larger, and (f) includes tasks with hidden goals. Accompanying our dataset, we propose three benchmarks to evaluate representation learning methods for pretraining, and carry out experiments on several recently proposed methods. First, we find that pretrained representations do not help policy learning on DMC-VB, and we highlight a large representation gap between policies learned on pixel observations and on states. Second, we demonstrate when expert data is limited, policy learning can benefit from representations pretrained on (a) suboptimal data, and (b) tasks with stochastic hidden goals. Our dataset and benchmark code to train and evaluate agents are available at: https://github.com/google-deepmind/dmc_vision_benchmark.

Lijun Yu, Yong Cheng, Zhiruo Wang et al. · cmu, deepmind

In this work, we introduce Semantic Pyramid AutoEncoder (SPAE) for enabling frozen LLMs to perform both understanding and generation tasks involving non-linguistic modalities such as images or videos. SPAE converts between raw pixels and interpretable lexical tokens (or words) extracted from the LLM's vocabulary. The resulting tokens capture both the semantic meaning and the fine-grained details needed for visual reconstruction, effectively translating the visual content into a language comprehensible to the LLM, and empowering it to perform a wide array of multimodal tasks. Our approach is validated through in-context learning experiments with frozen PaLM 2 and GPT 3.5 on a diverse set of image understanding and generation tasks. Our method marks the first successful attempt to enable a frozen LLM to generate image content while surpassing state-of-the-art performance in image understanding tasks, under the same setting, by over 25%.

Dustin Tran, Jeremiah Liu, Michael W. Dusenberry et al. · oxford

A recent trend in artificial intelligence is the use of pretrained models for language and vision tasks, which have achieved extraordinary performance but also puzzling failures. Probing these models' abilities in diverse ways is therefore critical to the field. In this paper, we explore the reliability of models, where we define a reliable model as one that not only achieves strong predictive performance but also performs well consistently over many decision-making tasks involving uncertainty (e.g., selective prediction, open set recognition), robust generalization (e.g., accuracy and proper scoring rules such as log-likelihood on in- and out-of-distribution datasets), and adaptation (e.g., active learning, few-shot uncertainty). We devise 10 types of tasks over 40 datasets in order to evaluate different aspects of reliability on both vision and language domains. To improve reliability, we developed ViT-Plex and T5-Plex, pretrained large model extensions for vision and language modalities, respectively. Plex greatly improves the state-of-the-art across reliability tasks, and simplifies the traditional protocol as it improves the out-of-the-box performance and does not require designing scores or tuning the model for each task. We demonstrate scaling effects over model sizes up to 1B parameters and pretraining dataset sizes up to 4B examples. We also demonstrate Plex's capabilities on challenging tasks including zero-shot open set recognition, active learning, and uncertainty in conversational language understanding.

Qingyao Sun, Kevin Murphy, Sayna Ebrahimi et al.

Changes in the data distribution at test time can have deleterious effects on the performance of predictive models $p(y|x)$. We consider situations where there are additional meta-data labels (such as group labels), denoted by $z$, that can account for such changes in the distribution. In particular, we assume that the prior distribution $p(y, z)$, which models the dependence between the class label $y$ and the "nuisance" factors $z$, may change across domains, either due to a change in the correlation between these terms, or a change in one of their marginals. However, we assume that the generative model for features $p(x|y,z)$ is invariant across domains. We note that this corresponds to an expanded version of the widely used "label shift" assumption, where the labels now also include the nuisance factors $z$. Based on this observation, we propose a test-time label shift correction that adapts to changes in the joint distribution $p(y, z)$ using EM applied to unlabeled samples from the target domain distribution, $p_t(x)$. Importantly, we are able to avoid fitting a generative model $p(x|y, z)$, and merely need to reweight the outputs of a discriminative model $p_s(y, z|x)$ trained on the source distribution. We evaluate our method, which we call "Test-Time Label-Shift Adaptation" (TTLSA), on several standard image and text datasets, as well as the CheXpert chest X-ray dataset, and show that it improves performance over methods that target invariance to changes in the distribution, as well as baseline empirical risk minimization methods. Code for reproducing experiments is available at https://github.com/nalzok/test-time-label-shift .

Zeel B Patel, Nipun Batra, Kevin Murphy

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the interpretability of the proposed model by separating the overall uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. We illustrate the usability of derived epistemic uncertainty on active learning problems. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model with various ablations on multiple datasets.

Gerardo Duran-Martin, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt, Alexander Y. Shestopaloff et al.

We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform probabilistic online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for generalised (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments. BONE provides a common structure to tackle a variety of problems, including online continual learning, prequential forecasting, and contextual bandits. The framework requires specifying three modelling choices: (i) a model for measurements (e.g., a neural network), (ii) an auxiliary process to model non-stationarity (e.g., the time since the last changepoint), and (iii) a conditional prior over model parameters (e.g., a multivariate Gaussian). The framework also requires two algorithmic choices, which we use to carry out approximate inference under this framework: (i) an algorithm to estimate beliefs (posterior distribution) about the model parameters given the auxiliary variable, and (ii) an algorithm to estimate beliefs about the auxiliary variable. We show how the modularity of our framework allows for many existing methods to be reinterpreted as instances of BONE, and it allows us to propose new methods. We compare experimentally existing methods with our proposed new method on several datasets, providing insights into the situations that make each method more suitable for a specific task. We provide a Jax open source library to facilitate the adoption of this framework.

Kelsey Allen, Carl Doersch, Guangyao Zhou et al.

A current limitation of video generative video models is that they generate plausible looking frames, but poor motion -- an issue that is not well captured by FVD and other popular methods for evaluating generated videos. Here we go beyond FVD by developing a metric which better measures plausible object interactions and motion. Our novel approach is based on auto-encoding point tracks and yields motion features that can be used to not only compare distributions of videos (as few as one generated and one ground truth, or as many as two datasets), but also for evaluating motion of single videos. We show that using point tracks instead of pixel reconstruction or action recognition features results in a metric which is markedly more sensitive to temporal distortions in synthetic data, and can predict human evaluations of temporal consistency and realism in generated videos obtained from open-source models better than a wide range of alternatives. We also show that by using a point track representation, we can spatiotemporally localize generative video inconsistencies, providing extra interpretability of generated video errors relative to prior work. An overview of the results and link to the code can be found on the project page: http://trajan-paper.github.io.

Kevin Murphy

We present BLF (Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) A linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running $K$ independent trials and combining them using logit-space shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 backtesting questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Ablation studies show that the structured belief state is almost as impactful as web search access, and that shrinkage aggregation and hierarchical calibration each provide significant additional gains. In addition, we develop a robust back-testing framework with a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and use rigorous statistical methodology to compare different methods while controlling for various sources of noise.

Yujia Zheng, Fan Feng, Yuke Li et al.

Given a generalist model, learning a task-relevant specialist representation is fundamental for downstream applications. Identifiability, the asymptotic guarantee of recovering the ground-truth representation, is critical because it sets the ultimate limit of any model, even with infinite data and computation. We study this problem in a completely nonparametric setting, without relying on interventions, parametric forms, or structural constraints. We first prove that the structure between time steps and tasks is identifiable in a fully unsupervised manner, even when sequences lack strict temporal dependence and may exhibit disconnections, and task assignments can follow arbitrarily complex and interleaving structures. We then prove that, within each time step, the task-relevant latent representation can be disentangled from the irrelevant part under a simple sparsity regularization, without any additional information or parametric constraints. Together, these results establish a hierarchical foundation: task structure is identifiable across time steps, and task-relevant latent representations are identifiable within each step. To our knowledge, each result provides a first general nonparametric identifiability guarantee, and together they mark a step toward provably moving from generalist to specialist models.

Zachary Nado, Neil Band, Mark Collier et al.

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is therefore very important for research and practice alike. Yet, competitive comparisons of methods are often lacking due to a range of reasons, including: compute availability for extensive tuning, incorporation of sufficiently many baselines, and concrete documentation for reproducibility. In this paper we introduce Uncertainty Baselines: high-quality implementations of standard and state-of-the-art deep learning methods on a variety of tasks. As of this writing, the collection spans 19 methods across 9 tasks, each with at least 5 metrics. Each baseline is a self-contained experiment pipeline with easily reusable and extendable components. Our goal is to provide immediate starting points for experimentation with new methods or applications. Additionally we provide model checkpoints, experiment outputs as Python notebooks, and leaderboards for comparing results. Code available at https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines.

Joao Ramos, Yanran Ding, Young-woo Sim et al.

This paper introduces HOPPY, an open-source, low-cost, robust, and modular kit for robotics education. The robot dynamically hops around a rotating gantry with a fixed base. The kit is intended to lower the entry barrier for studying dynamic robots and legged locomotion with real systems. It bridges the theoretical content of fundamental robotic courses with real dynamic robots by facilitating and guiding the software and hardware integration. This paper describes the topics which can be studied using the kit, lists its components, discusses preferred practices for implementation, presents results from experiments with the simulator and the real system, and suggests further improvements. A simple heuristic-based controller is described to achieve velocities up to 1.7m/s, navigate small objects, and mitigate external disturbances when the robot is aided by a counterweight. HOPPY was utilized as the subject of a semester-long project for the Robot Dynamics and Control course at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The positive feedback from the students and instructors about the hands-on activities during the course motivates us to share this kit and continue improving in the future.

Joao Ramos, Yanran Ding, Young-woo Sim et al.

This letter introduces HOPPY, an open-source, low-cost, robust, and modular kit for robotics education. The robot dynamically hops around a rotating gantry with a fixed base. The kit lowers the entry barrier for studying dynamic robots and legged locomotion in real systems. The kit bridges the theoretical content of fundamental robotic courses and real dynamic robots by facilitating and guiding the software and hardware integration. This letter describes the topics which can be studied using the kit, lists its components, discusses best practices for implementation, presents results from experiments with the simulator and the real system, and suggests further improvements. A simple controller is described to achieve velocities up to 2m/s, navigate small objects, and mitigate external disturbances (kicks). HOPPY was utilized as the topic of a semester-long project for the Robot Dynamics and Control course at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Students provided an overwhelmingly positive feedback from the hands-on activities during the course and the instructors will continue to improve the kit for upcoming semesters.

Yiding Jiang, Shixiang Gu, Kevin Murphy et al.

Solving complex, temporally-extended tasks is a long-standing problem in reinforcement learning (RL). We hypothesize that one critical element of solving such problems is the notion of compositionality. With the ability to learn concepts and sub-skills that can be composed to solve longer tasks, i.e. hierarchical RL, we can acquire temporally-extended behaviors. However, acquiring effective yet general abstractions for hierarchical RL is remarkably challenging. In this paper, we propose to use language as the abstraction, as it provides unique compositional structure, enabling fast learning and combinatorial generalization, while retaining tremendous flexibility, making it suitable for a variety of problems. Our approach learns an instruction-following low-level policy and a high-level policy that can reuse abstractions across tasks, in essence, permitting agents to reason using structured language. To study compositional task learning, we introduce an open-source object interaction environment built using the MuJoCo physics engine and the CLEVR engine. We find that, using our approach, agents can learn to solve to diverse, temporally-extended tasks such as object sorting and multi-object rearrangement, including from raw pixel observations. Our analysis reveals that the compositional nature of language is critical for learning diverse sub-skills and systematically generalizing to new sub-skills in comparison to non-compositional abstractions that use the same supervision.

Junhua Mao, Jonathan Huang, Alexander Toshev et al.

We propose a method that can generate an unambiguous description (known as a referring expression) of a specific object or region in an image, and which can also comprehend or interpret such an expression to infer which object is being described. We show that our method outperforms previous methods that generate descriptions of objects without taking into account other potentially ambiguous objects in the scene. Our model is inspired by recent successes of deep learning methods for image captioning, but while image captioning is difficult to evaluate, our task allows for easy objective evaluation. We also present a new large-scale dataset for referring expressions, based on MS-COCO. We have released the dataset and a toolbox for visualization and evaluation, see https://github.com/mjhucla/Google_Refexp_toolbox

Alberto Cabezas, Adrien Corenflos, Junpeng Lao et al.

BlackJAX is a library implementing sampling and variational inference algorithms commonly used in Bayesian computation. It is designed for ease of use, speed, and modularity by taking a functional approach to the algorithms' implementation. BlackJAX is written in Python, using JAX to compile and run NumpPy-like samplers and variational methods on CPUs, GPUs, and TPUs. The library integrates well with probabilistic programming languages by working directly with the (un-normalized) target log density function. BlackJAX is intended as a collection of low-level, composable implementations of basic statistical 'atoms' that can be combined to perform well-defined Bayesian inference, but also provides high-level routines for ease of use. It is designed for users who need cutting-edge methods, researchers who want to create complex sampling methods, and people who want to learn how these work.

Matthew Niedoba, Berend Zwartsenberg, Kevin Murphy et al.

We propose a simple, training-free mechanism which explains the generalization behaviour of diffusion models. By comparing pre-trained diffusion models to their theoretically optimal empirical counterparts, we identify a shared local inductive bias across a variety of network architectures. From this observation, we hypothesize that network denoisers generalize through localized denoising operations, as these operations approximate the training objective well over much of the training distribution. To validate our hypothesis, we introduce novel denoising algorithms which aggregate local empirical denoisers to replicate network behaviour. Comparing these algorithms to network denoisers across forward and reverse diffusion processes, our approach exhibits consistent visual similarity to neural network outputs, with lower mean squared error than previously proposed methods.

Faith Wavinya Mutinda, Spandana Makeneni, Anna Lin et al.

Introduction: Semantic search, which retrieves documents based on conceptual similarity rather than keyword matching, offers substantial advantages for retrieval of clinical information. However, deploying semantic search across entire health systems, comprising hundreds of millions of clinical notes, presents formidable engineering, cost, and governance challenges that have prevented adoption. Methods: We deployed a semantic search system at a large children's hospital indexing 166 million clinical notes (484 million vectors) from 1.68 million patients. The system uses instruction-tuned qwen3-embedding-0.6B embeddings, stores vectors in a managed database with storage-optimized indexing, maintains full-text metadata in a low-latency key-value store, and operates within a HIPAA-compliant governance framework. We evaluated the system through three experiments: optimization of embedding model and chunking strategy using a physician-authored benchmark dataset, characterization of full-scale performance (cost, latency, retrieval quality), and clinical utility assessment via comparison of chart abstraction efficiency across three tasks. Results: The system delivers sub-second query latency (median 237 ms single-user, 451 ms 20-user concurrency) with monthly costs of approximately USD 4,000. Qwen3 embeddings with 300-token chunk size achieved 94.6% accuracy on a clinical question-answering benchmark. In clinical utility evaluation across three abstraction tasks, semantic search reduced time-to-completion by 24 to 89% compared to clinician-performed chart review while maintaining comparable inter-rater agreement. Conclusion: Health-system-scale semantic search is both technically and operationally feasible. The system provides infrastructure supporting interactive search, cohort generation, and downstream LLM-powered clinical applications without requiring specialized informatics expertise.

Valentin De Bortoli, Alexandre Galashov, J. Swaroop Guntupalli et al.

Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises" a Gaussian sample into a sample from the data distribution. However, generating high-quality outputs requires many discretization steps to obtain a faithful approximation of the reverse process. This is expensive and has motivated the development of many acceleration methods. We propose to accomplish sample generation by learning the posterior {\em distribution} of clean data samples given their noisy versions, instead of only the mean of this distribution. This allows us to sample from the probability transitions of the reverse process on a coarse time scale, significantly accelerating inference with minimal degradation of the quality of the output. This is accomplished by replacing the standard regression loss used to estimate conditional means with a scoring rule. We validate our method on image and robot trajectory generation, where we consistently outperform standard diffusion models at few discretization steps.

Yuejiang Liu, Fan Feng, Lingjing Kong et al.

General-purpose world models promise scalable policy evaluation, optimization, and planning, yet achieving the required level of robustness remains challenging. Unlike policy learning, which primarily focuses on optimal actions, a world model must be reliable over a much broader range of suboptimal actions, which are often insufficiently covered by action-labeled interaction data. To address this challenge, we propose World Action Verifier (WAV), a framework that enables world models to identify their own prediction errors and self-improve. The key idea is to decompose action-conditioned state prediction into two factors -- state plausibility and action reachability -- and verify each separately. We show that these verification problems can be substantially easier than predicting future states due to two underlying asymmetries: the broader availability of action-free data and the lower dimensionality of action-relevant features. Leveraging these asymmetries, we augment a world model with (i) a diverse subgoal generator obtained from video corpora and (ii) a sparse inverse model that infers actions from a subset of state features. By enforcing cycle consistency among generated subgoals, inferred actions, and forward rollouts, WAV provides an effective verification mechanism in under-explored regimes, where existing methods typically fail. Across nine tasks spanning MiniGrid, RoboMimic, and ManiSkill, our method achieves 2x higher sample efficiency while improving downstream policy performance by 18%.

Sireesh Gururaja, Yueheng Zhang, Guannan Tang et al. · cmu

Recent years in NLP have seen the continued development of domain-specific information extraction tools for scientific documents, alongside the release of increasingly multimodal pretrained transformer models. While the opportunity for scientists outside of NLP to evaluate and apply such systems to their own domains has never been clearer, these models are difficult to compare: they accept different input formats, are often black-box and give little insight into processing failures, and rarely handle PDF documents, the most common format of scientific publication. In this work, we present Collage, a tool designed for rapid prototyping, visualization, and evaluation of different information extraction models on scientific PDFs. Collage allows the use and evaluation of any HuggingFace token classifier, several LLMs, and multiple other task-specific models out of the box, and provides extensible software interfaces to accelerate experimentation with new models. Further, we enable both developers and users of NLP-based tools to inspect, debug, and better understand modeling pipelines by providing granular views of intermediate states of processing. We demonstrate our system in the context of information extraction to assist with literature review in materials science.

Wasu Top Piriyakulkij, Wolfgang Lehrach, Kevin Ellis et al.

Building agents that can perform new skills by composing existing skills is a long-standing goal of AI agent research. Towards this end, we investigate how to efficiently acquire a sequence of skills, formalized as hierarchical neural options. However, existing model-free hierarchical reinforcement algorithms need a lot of data. We propose a novel method, which we call AgentOWL (Option and World model Learning Agent), that jointly learns -- in a sample efficient way -- an abstract world model (abstracting across both states and time) and a set of hierarchical neural options. We show, on a subset of Object-Centric Atari games, that our method can learn more skills using much less data than baseline methods.

Alejandro Escontrela, Shrinu Kushagra, Sjoerd van Steenkiste et al.

Amazing progress has been made in controllable generative modeling, especially over the last few years. However, some challenges remain. One of them is precise and iterative object editing. In many of the current methods, trying to edit the generated image (for example, changing the color of a particular object in the scene or changing the background while keeping other elements unchanged) by changing the conditioning signals often leads to unintended global changes in the scene. In this work, we take the first steps to address the above challenges. Taking inspiration from the Universal Scene Descriptor (USD) standard developed in the computer graphics community, we introduce the "Neural Universal Scene Descriptor" or Neural USD. In this framework, we represent scenes and objects in a structured, hierarchical manner. This accommodates diverse signals, minimizes model-specific constraints, and enables per-object control over appearance, geometry, and pose. We further apply a fine-tuning approach which ensures that the above control signals are disentangled from one another. We evaluate several design considerations for our framework, demonstrating how Neural USD enables iterative and incremental workflows. More information at: https://escontrela.me/neural_usd .

Gerardo Duran-Martin, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt, Álvaro Cartea et al.

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model parameters, our methods adopt a predictive-first perspective based on martingale posteriors. In particular, we work directly with the one-step-ahead posterior predictive, which we parameterize with a neural network and update sequentially with incoming observations. This decouples Bayesian decision-making from parameter-space inference: we sample from the posterior predictive for decision making, and update the parameters of the posterior predictive via fast, frequentist Kalman-filter-like recursions. Our algorithms operate in a fully online, replay-free setting, providing principled uncertainty quantification without costly posterior sampling. Empirically, they achieve competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization, offering 10-100 times faster inference than classical Thompson sampling while maintaining comparable or superior decision performance.

Kevin Murphy

This manuscript gives a big-picture, up-to-date overview of the field of (deep) reinforcement learning and sequential decision making, covering value-based methods, policy-based methods, model-based methods, multi-agent RL, LLMs and RL, and various other topics (e.g., offline RL, hierarchical RL, intrinsic reward).

Xinghua Lou, Meet Dave, Shrinu Kushagra et al.

We propose an approach to simulating trajectories of multiple interacting agents (road users) based on transformers and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), and apply it to the Waymo SimAgents challenge. The transformer baseline is based on the MTR model, which predicts multiple future trajectories conditioned on the past trajectories and static road layout features. We then improve upon these generated trajectories using a PGM, which contains factors which encode prior knowledge, such as a preference for smooth trajectories, and avoidance of collisions with static obstacles and other moving agents. We perform (approximate) MAP inference in this PGM using the Gauss-Newton method. Finally we sample $K=32$ trajectories for each of the $N \sim 100$ agents for the next $T=8 Δ$ time steps, where $Δ=10$ is the sampling rate per second. Following the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, we only return the first element of our forecasted trajectories at each step, and then we replan, so that the simulation can constantly adapt to its changing environment. We therefore call our approach "Model Predictive Simulation" or MPS. We show that MPS improves upon the MTR baseline, especially in safety critical metrics such as collision rate. Furthermore, our approach is compatible with any underlying forecasting model, and does not require extra training, so we believe it is a valuable contribution to the community.

Gerardo Duran-Martin, Matias Altamirano, Alexander Y. Shestopaloff et al.

We derive a novel, provably robust, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with filtering methods such as the extended and ensemble Kalman filter. We use the former to show robustness and the latter to ensure computational efficiency in the case of nonlinear models. Our method matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods (such as those based on variational Bayes) at a much lower computational cost. We show this empirically on a range of filtering problems with outlier measurements, such as object tracking, state estimation in high-dimensional chaotic systems, and online learning of neural networks.

Peter G. Chang, Gerardo Durán-Martín, Alexander Y Shestopaloff et al.

We propose an efficient online approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the parameters of a nonlinear function from a potentially non-stationary data stream. The method is based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF), but uses a novel low-rank plus diagonal decomposition of the posterior precision matrix, which gives a cost per step which is linear in the number of model parameters. In contrast to methods based on stochastic variational inference, our method is fully deterministic, and does not require step-size tuning. We show experimentally that this results in much faster (more sample efficient) learning, which results in more rapid adaptation to changing distributions, and faster accumulation of reward when used as part of a contextual bandit algorithm.

Gerardo Duran-Martin, Aleyna Kara, Kevin Murphy

In this paper we present a new algorithm for online (sequential) inference in Bayesian neural networks, and show its suitability for tackling contextual bandit problems. The key idea is to combine the extended Kalman filter (which locally linearizes the likelihood function at each time step) with a (learned or random) low-dimensional affine subspace for the parameters; the use of a subspace enables us to scale our algorithm to models with $\sim 1M$ parameters. While most other neural bandit methods need to store the entire past dataset in order to avoid the problem of "catastrophic forgetting", our approach uses constant memory. This is possible because we represent uncertainty about all the parameters in the model, not just the final linear layer. We show good results on the "Deep Bayesian Bandit Showdown" benchmark, as well as MNIST and a recommender system.

Kevin Murphy, Abhishek Kumar, Stylianos Serghiou

Digital contact tracing apps for COVID, such as the one developed by Google and Apple, need to estimate the risk that a user was infected during a particular exposure, in order to decide whether to notify the user to take precautions, such as entering into quarantine, or requesting a test. Such risk score models contain numerous parameters that must be set by the public health authority. In this paper, we show how to automatically learn these parameters from data. Our method needs access to exposure and outcome data. Although this data is already being collected (in an aggregated, privacy-preserving way) by several health authorities, in this paper we limit ourselves to simulated data, so that we can systematically study the different factors that affect the feasibility of the approach. In particular, we show that the parameters become harder to estimate when there is more missing data (e.g., due to infections which were not recorded by the app), and when there is model misspecification. Nevertheless, the learning approach outperforms a strong manually designed baseline. Furthermore, the learning approach can adapt even when the risk factors of the disease change, e.g., due to the evolution of new variants, or the adoption of vaccines.

Sunyu Wang, Kevin Murphy, Dillan Kenney et al.

Teleoperation (i.e., controlling a robot with human motion) proves promising in enabling a humanoid robot to move as dynamically as a human. But how to map human motion to a humanoid robot matters because a human and a humanoid robot rarely have identical topologies and dimensions. This work presents an experimental study that utilizes reaction tests to compare the proposed joint space mapping and the proposed task space mapping for dynamic teleoperation of an anthropomorphic robotic arm that possesses human-level dynamic motion capabilities. The experimental results suggest that the robot achieved similar and, in some cases, human-level dynamic performances with both mappings for the six participating human subjects. All subjects became proficient at teleoperating the robot with both mappings after practice, despite that the subjects and the robot differed in size and link length ratio and that the teleoperation required the subjects to move unintuitively. Yet, most subjects developed their teleoperation proficiencies more quickly with the task space mapping than with the joint space mapping after similar amounts of practice. This study also indicates the potential values of a three-dimensional task space mapping, a teleoperation training simulator, and force feedback to the human pilot for intuitive and dynamic teleoperation of a humanoid robot's arms.

Christof Angermueller, David Belanger, Andreea Gane et al.

The use of black-box optimization for the design of new biological sequences is an emerging research area with potentially revolutionary impact. The cost and latency of wet-lab experiments requires methods that find good sequences in few experimental rounds of large batches of sequences--a setting that off-the-shelf black-box optimization methods are ill-equipped to handle. We find that the performance of existing methods varies drastically across optimization tasks, posing a significant obstacle to real-world applications. To improve robustness, we propose Population-Based Black-Box Optimization (P3BO), which generates batches of sequences by sampling from an ensemble of methods. The number of sequences sampled from any method is proportional to the quality of sequences it previously proposed, allowing P3BO to combine the strengths of individual methods while hedging against their innate brittleness. Adapting the hyper-parameters of each of the methods online using evolutionary optimization further improves performance. Through extensive experiments on in-silico optimization tasks, we show that P3BO outperforms any single method in its population, proposing higher quality sequences as well as more diverse batches. As such, P3BO and Adaptive-P3BO are a crucial step towards deploying ML to real-world sequence design.

Ines Chami, Sami Abu-El-Haija, Bryan Perozzi et al.

There has been a surge of recent interest in learning representations for graph-structured data. Graph representation learning methods have generally fallen into three main categories, based on the availability of labeled data. The first, network embedding (such as shallow graph embedding or graph auto-encoders), focuses on learning unsupervised representations of relational structure. The second, graph regularized neural networks, leverages graphs to augment neural network losses with a regularization objective for semi-supervised learning. The third, graph neural networks, aims to learn differentiable functions over discrete topologies with arbitrary structure. However, despite the popularity of these areas there has been surprisingly little work on unifying the three paradigms. Here, we aim to bridge the gap between graph neural networks, network embedding and graph regularization models. We propose a comprehensive taxonomy of representation learning methods for graph-structured data, aiming to unify several disparate bodies of work. Specifically, we propose a Graph Encoder Decoder Model (GRAPHEDM), which generalizes popular algorithms for semi-supervised learning on graphs (e.g. GraphSage, Graph Convolutional Networks, Graph Attention Networks), and unsupervised learning of graph representations (e.g. DeepWalk, node2vec, etc) into a single consistent approach. To illustrate the generality of this approach, we fit over thirty existing methods into this framework. We believe that this unifying view both provides a solid foundation for understanding the intuition behind these methods, and enables future research in the area.

Michael Zhu, Kevin Murphy, Rico Jonschkowski

Resampling is a key component of sample-based recursive state estimation in particle filters. Recent work explores differentiable particle filters for end-to-end learning. However, resampling remains a challenge in these works, as it is inherently non-differentiable. We address this challenge by replacing traditional resampling with a learned neural network resampler. We present a novel network architecture, the particle transformer, and train it for particle resampling using a likelihood-based loss function over sets of particles. Incorporated into a differentiable particle filter, our model can be end-to-end optimized jointly with the other particle filter components via gradient descent. Our results show that our learned resampler outperforms traditional resampling techniques on synthetic data and in a simulated robot localization task.

Abhishek Kumar, Ben Poole, Kevin Murphy

Invertible flow-based generative models are an effective method for learning to generate samples, while allowing for tractable likelihood computation and inference. However, the invertibility requirement restricts models to have the same latent dimensionality as the inputs. This imposes significant architectural, memory, and computational costs, making them more challenging to scale than other classes of generative models such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). We propose a generative model based on probability flows that does away with the bijectivity requirement on the model and only assumes injectivity. This also provides another perspective on regularized autoencoders (RAEs), with our final objectives resembling RAEs with specific regularizers that are derived by lower bounding the probability flow objective. We empirically demonstrate the promise of the proposed model, improving over VAEs and AEs in terms of sample quality.

Junwei Liang, Lu Jiang, Kevin Murphy et al.

This paper studies the problem of predicting the distribution over multiple possible future paths of people as they move through various visual scenes. We make two main contributions. The first contribution is a new dataset, created in a realistic 3D simulator, which is based on real world trajectory data, and then extrapolated by human annotators to achieve different latent goals. This provides the first benchmark for quantitative evaluation of the models to predict multi-future trajectories. The second contribution is a new model to generate multiple plausible future trajectories, which contains novel designs of using multi-scale location encodings and convolutional RNNs over graphs. We refer to our model as Multiverse. We show that our model achieves the best results on our dataset, as well as on the real-world VIRAT/ActEV dataset (which just contains one possible future).

Matthias Minderer, Chen Sun, Ruben Villegas et al.

Extracting and predicting object structure and dynamics from videos without supervision is a major challenge in machine learning. To address this challenge, we adopt a keypoint-based image representation and learn a stochastic dynamics model of the keypoints. Future frames are reconstructed from the keypoints and a reference frame. By modeling dynamics in the keypoint coordinate space, we achieve stable learning and avoid compounding of errors in pixel space. Our method improves upon unstructured representations both for pixel-level video prediction and for downstream tasks requiring object-level understanding of motion dynamics. We evaluate our model on diverse datasets: a multi-agent sports dataset, the Human3.6M dataset, and datasets based on continuous control tasks from the DeepMind Control Suite. The spatially structured representation outperforms unstructured representations on a range of motion-related tasks such as object tracking, action recognition and reward prediction.

Steven Hickson, Karthik Raveendran, Alireza Fathi et al.

We propose 4 insights that help to significantly improve the performance of deep learning models that predict surface normals and semantic labels from a single RGB image. These insights are: (1) denoise the "ground truth" surface normals in the training set to ensure consistency with the semantic labels; (2) concurrently train on a mix of real and synthetic data, instead of pretraining on synthetic and finetuning on real; (3) jointly predict normals and semantics using a shared model, but only backpropagate errors on pixels that have valid training labels; (4) slim down the model and use grayscale instead of color inputs. Despite the simplicity of these steps, we demonstrate consistently improved results on several datasets, using a model that runs at 12 fps on a standard mobile phone.

Chen Sun, Fabien Baradel, Kevin Murphy et al.

This paper proposes a self-supervised learning approach for video features that results in significantly improved performance on downstream tasks (such as video classification, captioning and segmentation) compared to existing methods. Our method extends the BERT model for text sequences to the case of sequences of real-valued feature vectors, by replacing the softmax loss with noise contrastive estimation (NCE). We also show how to learn representations from sequences of visual features and sequences of words derived from ASR (automatic speech recognition), and show that such cross-modal training (when possible) helps even more.

David H. Brookes, Akosua Busia, Clara Fannjiang et al.

We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of infinite samples. Because EM sits on a rigorous statistical foundation and has been thoroughly analyzed, this connection provides a new coherent framework with which to reason about EDAs.

Chen Sun, Abhinav Shrivastava, Carl Vondrick et al.

This paper focuses on multi-person action forecasting in videos. More precisely, given a history of H previous frames, the goal is to detect actors and to predict their future actions for the next T frames. Our approach jointly models temporal and spatial interactions among different actors by constructing a recurrent graph, using actor proposals obtained with Faster R-CNN as nodes. Our method learns to select a subset of discriminative relations without requiring explicit supervision, thus enabling us to tackle challenging visual data. We refer to our model as Discriminative Relational Recurrent Network (DRRN). Evaluation of action prediction on AVA demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed method compared to simpler baselines. Furthermore, we significantly improve performance on the task of early action classification on J-HMDB, from the previous SOTA of 48% to 60%.

Chen Sun, Austin Myers, Carl Vondrick et al.

Self-supervised learning has become increasingly important to leverage the abundance of unlabeled data available on platforms like YouTube. Whereas most existing approaches learn low-level representations, we propose a joint visual-linguistic model to learn high-level features without any explicit supervision. In particular, inspired by its recent success in language modeling, we build upon the BERT model to learn bidirectional joint distributions over sequences of visual and linguistic tokens, derived from vector quantization of video data and off-the-shelf speech recognition outputs, respectively. We use VideoBERT in numerous tasks, including action classification and video captioning. We show that it can be applied directly to open-vocabulary classification, and confirm that large amounts of training data and cross-modal information are critical to performance. Furthermore, we outperform the state-of-the-art on video captioning, and quantitative results verify that the model learns high-level semantic features.

Zhenjia Xu, Zhijian Liu, Chen Sun et al.

Humans easily recognize object parts and their hierarchical structure by watching how they move; they can then predict how each part moves in the future. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation that simultaneously learns a hierarchical, disentangled object representation and a dynamics model for object parts from unlabeled videos. Our Parts, Structure, and Dynamics (PSD) model learns to, first, recognize the object parts via a layered image representation; second, predict hierarchy via a structural descriptor that composes low-level concepts into a hierarchical structure; and third, model the system dynamics by predicting the future. Experiments on multiple real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our PSD model works well on all three tasks: segmenting object parts, building their hierarchical structure, and capturing their motion distributions.

Chen Sun, Per Karlsson, Jiajun Wu et al.

We present a method that learns to integrate temporal information, from a learned dynamics model, with ambiguous visual information, from a learned vision model, in the context of interacting agents. Our method is based on a graph-structured variational recurrent neural network (Graph-VRNN), which is trained end-to-end to infer the current state of the (partially observed) world, as well as to forecast future states. We show that our method outperforms various baselines on two sports datasets, one based on real basketball trajectories, and one generated by a soccer game engine.

Chris Ying, Aaron Klein, Esteban Real et al.

Recent advances in neural architecture search (NAS) demand tremendous computational resources, which makes it difficult to reproduce experiments and imposes a barrier-to-entry to researchers without access to large-scale computation. We aim to ameliorate these problems by introducing NAS-Bench-101, the first public architecture dataset for NAS research. To build NAS-Bench-101, we carefully constructed a compact, yet expressive, search space, exploiting graph isomorphisms to identify 423k unique convolutional architectures. We trained and evaluated all of these architectures multiple times on CIFAR-10 and compiled the results into a large dataset of over 5 million trained models. This allows researchers to evaluate the quality of a diverse range of models in milliseconds by querying the pre-computed dataset. We demonstrate its utility by analyzing the dataset as a whole and by benchmarking a range of architecture optimization algorithms.

Nam Vo, Lu Jiang, Chen Sun et al.

In this paper, we study the task of image retrieval, where the input query is specified in the form of an image plus some text that describes desired modifications to the input image. For example, we may present an image of the Eiffel tower, and ask the system to find images which are visually similar but are modified in small ways, such as being taken at nighttime instead of during the day. To tackle this task, we learn a similarity metric between a target image and a source image plus source text, an embedding and composing function such that target image feature is close to the source image plus text composition feature. We propose a new way to combine image and text using such function that is designed for the retrieval task. We show this outperforms existing approaches on 3 different datasets, namely Fashion-200k, MIT-States and a new synthetic dataset we create based on CLEVR. We also show that our approach can be used to classify input queries, in addition to image retrieval.

Seong Joon Oh, Kevin Murphy, Jiyan Pan et al.

Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confidence. However, this can fail to represent uncertainty arising when the input is ambiguous, e.g., due to occlusion or blurriness. This work addresses this issue and explicitly models the uncertainty by hedging the location of each input in the embedding space. We introduce the hedged instance embedding (HIB) in which embeddings are modeled as random variables and the model is trained under the variational information bottleneck principle. Empirical results on our new N-digit MNIST dataset show that our method leads to the desired behavior of hedging its bets across the embedding space upon encountering ambiguous inputs. This results in improved performance for image matching and classification tasks, more structure in the learned embedding space, and an ability to compute a per-exemplar uncertainty measure that is correlated with downstream performance.

Chen Sun, Abhinav Shrivastava, Carl Vondrick et al.

Current state-of-the-art approaches for spatio-temporal action localization rely on detections at the frame level and model temporal context with 3D ConvNets. Here, we go one step further and model spatio-temporal relations to capture the interactions between human actors, relevant objects and scene elements essential to differentiate similar human actions. Our approach is weakly supervised and mines the relevant elements automatically with an actor-centric relational network (ACRN). ACRN computes and accumulates pair-wise relation information from actor and global scene features, and generates relation features for action classification. It is implemented as neural networks and can be trained jointly with an existing action detection system. We show that ACRN outperforms alternative approaches which capture relation information, and that the proposed framework improves upon the state-of-the-art performance on JHMDB and AVA. A visualization of the learned relation features confirms that our approach is able to attend to the relevant relations for each action.

Carl Vondrick, Abhinav Shrivastava, Alireza Fathi et al.

We use large amounts of unlabeled video to learn models for visual tracking without manual human supervision. We leverage the natural temporal coherency of color to create a model that learns to colorize gray-scale videos by copying colors from a reference frame. Quantitative and qualitative experiments suggest that this task causes the model to automatically learn to track visual regions. Although the model is trained without any ground-truth labels, our method learns to track well enough to outperform the latest methods based on optical flow. Moreover, our results suggest that failures to track are correlated with failures to colorize, indicating that advancing video colorization may further improve self-supervised visual tracking.