Jacob Bieker

Ben Dixon, María Pérez-Ortiz, Jacob Bieker

Solar PV yield nowcasting is used to help anticipate peaks and troughs in demand to support grid integration. This paper compares multiple low-resource approaches to nowcasting solar PV yield, using a dataset of UK satellite imagery and solar PV energy readings over a 1 to 4-hour time range. The paper also estimates the carbon emissions generated and averted by deploying models, and finds that even small models that could be deployable in low-resource settings may have a benefit several orders of magnitude greater than its carbon cost. The paper also examines prediction errors and the activations in a CNN.

Wenqi Wang, Jacob Bieker, Rossella Arcucci et al.

In recent years, the convergence of data-driven machine learning models with Data Assimilation (DA) offers a promising avenue for enhancing weather forecasting. This study delves into this emerging trend, presenting our methodologies and outcomes. We harnessed the UK's local ERA5 850 hPa temperature data and refined the U-STN12 global weather forecasting model, tailoring its predictions to the UK's climate nuances. From the ASOS network, we sourced T2m data, representing ground observations across the UK. We employed the advanced kriging method with a polynomial drift term for consistent spatial resolution. Furthermore, Gaussian noise was superimposed on the ERA5 T850 data, setting the stage for ensuing multi-time step synthetic observations. Probing into the assimilation impacts, the ASOS T2m data was integrated with the ERA5 T850 dataset. Our insights reveal that while global forecast models can adapt to specific regions, incorporating atmospheric data in DA significantly bolsters model accuracy. Conversely, the direct assimilation of surface temperature data tends to mitigate this enhancement, tempering the model's predictive prowess.