Fernando Spadea

Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) lending protocols like Aave v3 rely on over-collateralization to secure loans, yet users frequently face liquidation due to volatile market conditions. Existing risk management tools utilize static health-factor thresholds, which are reactive and fail to distinguish between administrative "dust" cleanup and genuine insolvency. In this work, we propose an autonomous agent that leverages time-to-event (survival) analysis and moves beyond prediction to execution. Unlike passive risk signals, this agent perceives risk, simulates counterfactual futures, and executes protocol-faithful interventions to proactively prevent liquidations. We introduce a return period metric derived from a numerically stable XGBoost Cox proportional hazards model to normalize risk across transaction types, coupled with a volatility-adjusted trend score to filter transient market noise. To select optimal interventions, we implement a counterfactual optimization loop that simulates potential user actions to find the minimum capital required to mitigate risk. We validate our approach using a high-fidelity, protocol-faithful Aave v3 simulator on a cohort of 4,882 high-risk user profiles. The results demonstrate the agent's ability to prevent liquidations in imminent-risk scenarios where static rules fail, effectively "saving the unsavable" while maintaining a zero worsening rate, providing a critical safety guarantee often missing in autonomous financial agents. Furthermore, the system successfully differentiates between actionable financial risks and negligible dust events, optimizing capital efficiency where static rules fail.

Oshani Seneviratne, Fernando Spadea, Adrien Pavao et al.

Temporal Web analytics increasingly relies on large-scale, longitudinal data to understand how users, content, and systems evolve over time. A rapidly growing frontier is the \emph{Temporal Web3}: decentralized platforms whose behavior is recorded as immutable, time-stamped event streams. Despite the richness of this data, the field lacks shared, reproducible benchmarks that capture real-world temporal dynamics, specifically censoring and non-stationarity, across extended horizons. This absence slows methodological progress and limits the transfer of techniques between Web3 and broader Web domains. In this paper, we present the \textit{FinSurvival Challenge 2025} as a case study in benchmarking \emph{temporal Web3 intelligence}. Using 21.8 million transaction records from the Aave v3 protocol, the challenge operationalized 16 survival prediction tasks to model user behavior transitions.We detail the benchmark design and the winning solutions, highlighting how domain-aware temporal feature construction significantly outperformed generic modeling approaches. Furthermore, we distill lessons for next-generation temporal benchmarks, arguing that Web3 systems provide a high-fidelity sandbox for studying temporal challenges, such as churn, risk, and evolution that are fundamental to the wider Web.

Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

Personalized recommendation increasingly relies on private user data, motivating approaches that can adapt to individuals without centralizing their information. We present Federated Targeted Recommendations with Evolving Knowledge graphs and Language Models (FedTREK-LM), a framework that unifies lightweight large language models (LLMs), evolving personal knowledge graphs (PKGs), federated learning (FL), and Kahneman-Tversky Optimization to enable scalable, decentralized personalization. By prompting LLMs with structured PKGs, FedTREK-LM performs context-aware reasoning for personalized recommendation tasks such as movie and recipe suggestions. Across three lightweight Qwen3 models (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B), FedTREK-LM consistently and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art KG completion and federated recommendation baselines (HAKE, KBGAT, and FedKGRec), achieving more than a 4x improvement in F1-score on the movie and food benchmarks. Our results further show that real user data is critical for effective personalization, as synthetic data degrades performance by up to 46%. Overall, FedTREK-LM offers a practical paradigm for adaptive, LLM-powered personalization that generalizes across decentralized, evolving user PKGs.

Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

We evaluate Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO) as a fine-tuning method for large language models (LLMs) in federated learning (FL) settings, comparing it against Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Using Alpaca-7B as the base model, we fine-tune on a realistic dataset under both methods and evaluate performance using MT-Bench-1, Vicuna, and AdvBench benchmarks. Additionally, we introduce a redistributed dataset setup, where only KTO is applicable due to its ability to handle single-response feedback, unlike DPO's reliance on paired responses. Our results demonstrate that KTO, in both its original (KTOO) and redistributed (KTOR) configurations, consistently outperforms DPO across all benchmarks. In the redistributed setup, KTO further validates its flexibility and resilience by maintaining superior performance in scenarios where DPO cannot be applied. These findings establish KTO as a robust and scalable fine-tuning method for FL, motivating its adoption for privacy-preserving, decentralized, and heterogeneous environments.

Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

We present a lightweight neuro-symbolic framework to mitigate over-personalization in LLM-based recommender systems by adapting user-side Knowledge Graphs (KGs) at inference time. Instead of retraining models or relying on opaque heuristics, our method restructures a user's Personalized Knowledge Graph (PKG) to suppress feature co-occurrence patterns that reinforce Personalized Information Environments (PIEs), i.e., algorithmically induced filter bubbles that constrain content diversity. These adapted PKGs are used to construct structured prompts that steer the language model toward more diverse, Out-PIE recommendations while preserving topical relevance. We introduce a family of symbolic adaptation strategies, including soft reweighting, hard inversion, and targeted removal of biased triples, and a client-side learning algorithm that optimizes their application per user. Experiments on a recipe recommendation benchmark show that personalized PKG adaptations significantly increase content novelty while maintaining recommendation quality, outperforming global adaptation and naive prompt-based methods.

Lorenzo Carta, Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

We present the first application of federated learning (FL) to the U.S. National Financial Capability Study, introducing an interpretable framework for predicting consumer financial distress across all 50 states and the District of Columbia without centralizing sensitive data. Our cross-silo FL setup treats each state as a distinct data silo, simulating real-world governance in nationwide financial systems. Unlike prior work, our approach integrates two complementary explainable AI techniques to identify both global (nationwide) and local (state-specific) predictors of financial hardship, such as contact from debt collection agencies. We develop a machine learning model specifically suited for highly categorical, imbalanced survey data. This work delivers a scalable, regulation-compliant blueprint for early warning systems in finance, demonstrating how FL can power socially responsible AI applications in consumer credit risk and financial inclusion.

Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

Most financial recommendation systems often fail to account for key behavioral and regulatory factors, leading to advice that is misaligned with user preferences, difficult to interpret, or unlikely to be followed. We present FLARKO (Financial Language-model for Asset Recommendation with Knowledge-graph Optimization), a novel framework that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs), Knowledge Graphs (KGs), and Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO) to generate asset recommendations that are both profitable and behaviorally aligned. FLARKO encodes users' transaction histories and asset trends as structured KGs, providing interpretable and controllable context for the LLM. To demonstrate the adaptability of our approach, we develop and evaluate both a centralized architecture (CenFLARKO) and a federated variant (FedFLARKO). To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of combining KTO for fine-tuning of LLMs for financial asset recommendation. We also present the first use of structured KGs to ground LLM reasoning over behavioral financial data in a federated learning (FL) setting. Evaluated on the FAR-Trans dataset, FLARKO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation baselines on behavioral alignment and joint profitability, while remaining interpretable and resource-efficient.

Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne

Large language models (LLMs) show promise for personalized financial recommendations but are hampered by context limits, hallucinations, and a lack of behavioral grounding. Our prior work, FLARKO, embedded structured knowledge graphs (KGs) in LLM prompts to align advice with user behavior and market data. This paper introduces RAG-FLARKO, a retrieval-augmented extension to FLARKO, that overcomes scalability and relevance challenges using multi-stage and parallel KG retrieval processes. Our method first retrieves behaviorally relevant entities from a user's transaction KG and then uses this context to filter temporally consistent signals from a market KG, constructing a compact, grounded subgraph for the LLM. This pipeline reduces context overhead and sharpens the model's focus on relevant information. Empirical evaluation on a real-world financial transaction dataset demonstrates that RAG-FLARKO significantly enhances recommendation quality. Notably, our framework enables smaller, more efficient models to achieve high performance in both profitability and behavioral alignment, presenting a viable path for deploying grounded financial AI in resource-constrained environments.