Muhammad Akhtar Munir

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Muhammad Haris Khan, Salman Khan et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have enabled astounding progress in several vision-based problems. Despite showing high predictive accuracy, recently, several works have revealed that they tend to provide overconfident predictions and thus are poorly calibrated. The majority of the works addressing the miscalibration of DNNs fall under the scope of classification and consider only in-domain predictions. However, there is little to no progress in studying the calibration of DNN-based object detection models, which are central to many vision-based safety-critical applications. In this paper, inspired by the train-time calibration methods, we propose a novel auxiliary loss formulation that explicitly aims to align the class confidence of bounding boxes with the accurateness of predictions (i.e. precision). Since the original formulation of our loss depends on the counts of true positives and false positives in a minibatch, we develop a differentiable proxy of our loss that can be used during training with other application-specific loss functions. We perform extensive experiments on challenging in-domain and out-domain scenarios with six benchmark datasets including MS-COCO, Cityscapes, Sim10k, and BDD100k. Our results reveal that our train-time loss surpasses strong calibration baselines in reducing calibration error for both in and out-domain scenarios. Our source code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/akhtarvision/bpc_calibration

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Salman Khan, Muhammad Haris Khan et al.

Albeit revealing impressive predictive performance for several computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) are prone to making overconfident predictions. This limits the adoption and wider utilization of DNNs in many safety-critical applications. There have been recent efforts toward calibrating DNNs, however, almost all of them focus on the classification task. Surprisingly, very little attention has been devoted to calibrating modern DNN-based object detectors, especially detection transformers, which have recently demonstrated promising detection performance and are influential in many decision-making systems. In this work, we address the problem by proposing a mechanism for calibrated detection transformers (Cal-DETR), particularly for Deformable-DETR, UP-DETR and DINO. We pursue the train-time calibration route and make the following contributions. First, we propose a simple yet effective approach for quantifying uncertainty in transformer-based object detectors. Second, we develop an uncertainty-guided logit modulation mechanism that leverages the uncertainty to modulate the class logits. Third, we develop a logit mixing approach that acts as a regularizer with detection-specific losses and is also complementary to the uncertainty-guided logit modulation technique to further improve the calibration performance. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments across three in-domain and four out-domain scenarios. Results corroborate the effectiveness of Cal-DETR against the competing train-time methods in calibrating both in-domain and out-domain detections while maintaining or even improving the detection performance. Our codebase and pre-trained models can be accessed at \url{https://github.com/akhtarvision/cal-detr}.

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Muhammad Haris Khan, M. Saquib Sarfraz et al.

With deep neural network based solution more readily being incorporated in real-world applications, it has been pressing requirement that predictions by such models, especially in safety-critical environments, be highly accurate and well-calibrated. Although some techniques addressing DNN calibration have been proposed, they are only limited to visual classification applications and in-domain predictions. Unfortunately, very little to no attention is paid towards addressing calibration of DNN-based visual object detectors, that occupy similar space and importance in many decision making systems as their visual classification counterparts. In this work, we study the calibration of DNN-based object detection models, particularly under domain shift. To this end, we first propose a new, plug-and-play, train-time calibration loss for object detection (coined as TCD). It can be used with various application-specific loss functions as an auxiliary loss function to improve detection calibration. Second, we devise a new implicit technique for improving calibration in self-training based domain adaptive detectors, featuring a new uncertainty quantification mechanism for object detection. We demonstrate TCD is capable of enhancing calibration with notable margins (1) across different DNN-based object detection paradigms both in in-domain and out-of-domain predictions, and (2) in different domain-adaptive detectors across challenging adaptation scenarios. Finally, we empirically show that our implicit calibration technique can be used in tandem with TCD during adaptation to further boost calibration in diverse domain shift scenarios.

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Muhammad Haris Khan, M. Saquib Sarfraz et al.

Deep learning based object detectors struggle generalizing to a new target domain bearing significant variations in object and background. Most current methods align domains by using image or instance-level adversarial feature alignment. This often suffers due to unwanted background and lacks class-specific alignment. A straightforward approach to promote class-level alignment is to use high confidence predictions on unlabeled domain as pseudo-labels. These predictions are often noisy since model is poorly calibrated under domain shift. In this paper, we propose to leverage model's predictive uncertainty to strike the right balance between adversarial feature alignment and class-level alignment. We develop a technique to quantify predictive uncertainty on class assignments and bounding-box predictions. Model predictions with low uncertainty are used to generate pseudo-labels for self-training, whereas the ones with higher uncertainty are used to generate tiles for adversarial feature alignment. This synergy between tiling around uncertain object regions and generating pseudo-labels from highly certain object regions allows capturing both image and instance-level context during the model adaptation. We report thorough ablation study to reveal the impact of different components in our approach. Results on five diverse and challenging adaptation scenarios show that our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods with noticeable margins.

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Fahad Shahbaz Khan, Salman Khan

Accurate weather and climate modeling is critical for both scientific advancement and safeguarding communities against environmental risks. Traditional approaches rely heavily on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which simulate energy and matter flow across Earth's systems. However, heavy computational requirements and low efficiency restrict the suitability of NWP, leading to a pressing need for enhanced modeling techniques. Neural network-based models have emerged as promising alternatives, leveraging data-driven approaches to forecast atmospheric variables. In this work, we focus on limited-area modeling and train our model specifically for localized region-level downstream tasks. As a case study, we consider the MENA region due to its unique climatic challenges, where accurate localized weather forecasting is crucial for managing water resources, agriculture and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. This targeted approach allows us to tailor the model's capabilities to the unique conditions of the region of interest. Our study aims to validate the effectiveness of integrating parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methodologies, specifically Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and its variants, to enhance forecast accuracy, as well as training speed, computational resource utilization, and memory efficiency in weather and climate modeling for specific regions.

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Muhammad Umer Sheikh, Akashah Shabbir et al.

Earth Observation (EO) is moving beyond static prediction toward multi-step analytical workflows that require coordinated reasoning over data, tools, and geospatial state. While foundation models and vision-language models have expanded representation learning and language-grounded interaction for remote sensing, and agentic AI has demonstrated long-horizon reasoning and external tool use, EO is not a straightforward extension of generic agentic AI. EO workflows operate over georeferenced, multi-modal, and temporally structured data, where operations such as reprojection, resampling, compositing, and aggregation actively transform the underlying state and can constrain subsequent analysis. As a result, errors may propagate silently across steps, and correctness depends not only on internal coherence, but also on geospatial consistency, temporally valid comparisons, and physical validity. This position paper argues that these challenges are structural rather than incidental. We identify the implicit assumptions commonly made in generic agentic models, analyze how they break in geospatial workflows, and characterize the resulting failure modes in multi-step EO pipelines. We then outline design principles for EO-native agents centered on structured geospatial state, tool-aware reasoning, verifier-guided execution, and learning objectives aligned with geospatial and physical validity. Finally, we present research directions spanning EO-specific benchmarks, hybrid supervised and reinforcement learning, constrained self-improvement, and trajectory-level evaluation beyond final-answer accuracy. Building reliable geospatial agents therefore requires rethinking agent design around the physical, geospatial, and workflow constraints that govern EO analysis.

Muhammad Sohail Danish, Muhammad Haris Khan, Muhammad Akhtar Munir et al.

In this work, we tackle the problem of domain generalization for object detection, specifically focusing on the scenario where only a single source domain is available. We propose an effective approach that involves two key steps: diversifying the source domain and aligning detections based on class prediction confidence and localization. Firstly, we demonstrate that by carefully selecting a set of augmentations, a base detector can outperform existing methods for single domain generalization by a good margin. This highlights the importance of domain diversification in improving the performance of object detectors. Secondly, we introduce a method to align detections from multiple views, considering both classification and localization outputs. This alignment procedure leads to better generalized and well-calibrated object detector models, which are crucial for accurate decision-making in safety-critical applications. Our approach is detector-agnostic and can be seamlessly applied to both single-stage and two-stage detectors. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods, we conduct extensive experiments and ablations on challenging domain-shift scenarios. The results consistently demonstrate the superiority of our approach compared to existing methods. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/msohaildanish/DivAlign

Muhammad Sohail Danish, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Syed Roshaan Ali Shah et al.

While numerous recent benchmarks focus on evaluating generic Vision-Language Models (VLMs), they do not effectively address the specific challenges of geospatial applications. Generic VLM benchmarks are not designed to handle the complexities of geospatial data, an essential component for applications such as environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Key challenges in the geospatial domain include temporal change detection, large-scale object counting, tiny object detection, and understanding relationships between entities in remote sensing imagery. To bridge this gap, we present GEOBench-VLM, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to evaluate VLMs on geospatial tasks, including scene understanding, object counting, localization, fine-grained categorization, segmentation, and temporal analysis. Our benchmark features over 10,000 manually verified instructions and spanning diverse visual conditions, object types, and scales. We evaluate several state-of-the-art VLMs to assess performance on geospatial-specific challenges. The results indicate that although existing VLMs demonstrate potential, they face challenges when dealing with geospatial-specific tasks, highlighting the room for further improvements. Notably, the best-performing LLaVa-OneVision achieves only 41.7% accuracy on MCQs, slightly more than GPT-4o, which is approximately double the random guess performance. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/The-AI-Alliance/GEO-Bench-VLM .

Sagar Soni, Akshay Dudhane, Hiyam Debary et al.

Automated analysis of vast Earth observation data via interactive Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can unlock new opportunities for environmental monitoring, disaster response, and {resource management}. Existing generic VLMs do not perform well on Remote Sensing data, while the recent Geo-spatial VLMs remain restricted to a fixed resolution and few sensor modalities. In this paper, we introduce EarthDial, a conversational assistant specifically designed for Earth Observation (EO) data, transforming complex, multi-sensory Earth observations into interactive, natural language dialogues. EarthDial supports multi-spectral, multi-temporal, and multi-resolution imagery, enabling a wide range of remote sensing tasks, including classification, detection, captioning, question answering, visual reasoning, and visual grounding. To achieve this, we introduce an extensive instruction tuning dataset comprising over 11.11M instruction pairs covering RGB, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and multispectral modalities such as Near-Infrared (NIR) and infrared. Furthermore, EarthDial handles bi-temporal and multi-temporal sequence analysis for applications like change detection. Our extensive experimental results on 44 downstream datasets demonstrate that EarthDial outperforms existing generic and domain-specific models, achieving better generalization across various EO tasks. Our source codes and pre-trained models are at https://github.com/hiyamdebary/EarthDial.

Ashshak Sharifdeen, Fahad Shamshad, Muhammad Akhtar Munir et al.

Prompt tuning of large-scale vision-language models such as CLIP enables efficient task adaptation without updating model weights. However, it often leads to poor confidence calibration and unreliable predictive uncertainty. We address this problem by proposing a calibration framework that enhances predictive reliability while preserving the geometry of the pretrained CLIP embedding space, which is required for robust generalization. Our approach extends the standard cross-entropy loss with two complementary regularizers: (1) a mean-variance margin penalty that stabilizes inter-class logit margins by maximizing their average while minimizing dispersion, mitigating underconfidence and overconfidence spikes; and (2) a text moment-matching loss that aligns the first and second moments of tuned text embeddings with their frozen CLIP counterparts, preserving semantic dispersion crucial for generalization. Through extensive experiments across 7 prompt-tuning methods and 11 diverse datasets, we demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) compared to competitive calibration techniques on both base and novel classes

Akashah Shabbir, Muhammad Umer Sheikh, Muhammad Akhtar Munir et al.

Recent progress in multimodal reasoning has enabled agents that can interpret imagery, connect it with language, and perform structured analytical tasks. Extending such capabilities to the remote sensing domain remains challenging, as models must reason over spatial scale, geographic structures, and multispectral indices while maintaining coherent multi-step logic. To bridge this gap, OpenEarthAgent introduces a unified framework for developing tool-augmented geospatial agents trained on satellite imagery, natural-language queries, and detailed reasoning traces. The training pipeline relies on supervised fine-tuning over structured reasoning trajectories, aligning the model with verified multistep tool interactions across diverse analytical contexts. The accompanying corpus comprises 14,538 training and 1,169 evaluation instances, with more than 100K reasoning steps in the training split and over 7K reasoning steps in the evaluation split. It spans urban, environmental, disaster, and infrastructure domains, and incorporates GIS-based operations alongside index analyses such as NDVI, NBR, and NDBI. Grounded in explicit reasoning traces, the learned agent demonstrates structured reasoning, stable spatial understanding, and interpretable behaviour through tool-driven geospatial interactions across diverse conditions. We report consistent improvements over a strong baseline and competitive performance relative to recent open and closed-source models.

Vishal Nedungadi, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Marc Rußwurm et al.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Ashshak Sharifdeen, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Sanoojan Baliah et al.

Test-time prompt tuning for vision-language models (VLMs) is getting attention because of their ability to learn with unlabeled data without fine-tuning. Although test-time prompt tuning methods for VLMs can boost accuracy, the resulting models tend to demonstrate poor calibration, which casts doubts on the reliability and trustworthiness of these models. Notably, more attention needs to be devoted to calibrating the test-time prompt tuning in vision-language models. To this end, we propose a new approach, called O-TPT that introduces orthogonality constraints on the textual features corresponding to the learnable prompts for calibrating test-time prompt tuning in VLMs. Towards introducing orthogonality constraints, we make the following contributions. First, we uncover new insights behind the suboptimal calibration performance of existing methods relying on textual feature dispersion. Second, we show that imposing a simple orthogonalization of textual features is a more effective approach towards obtaining textual dispersion. We conduct extensive experiments on various datasets with different backbones and baselines. The results indicate that our method consistently outperforms the prior state of the art in significantly reducing the overall average calibration error. Also, our method surpasses the zero-shot calibration performance on fine-grained classification tasks.

Akashah Shabbir, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Akshay Dudhane et al.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has enabled tool-augmented agents capable of solving complex real-world tasks through step-by-step reasoning. However, existing evaluations often focus on general-purpose or multimodal scenarios, leaving a gap in domain-specific benchmarks that assess tool-use capabilities in complex remote sensing use cases. We present ThinkGeo, an agentic benchmark designed to evaluate LLM-driven agents on remote sensing tasks via structured tool use and multi-step planning. Inspired by tool-interaction paradigms, ThinkGeo includes human-curated queries spanning a wide range of real-world applications such as urban planning, disaster assessment and change analysis, environmental monitoring, transportation analysis, aviation monitoring, recreational infrastructure, and industrial site analysis. Queries are grounded in satellite or aerial imagery, including both optical RGB and SAR data, and require agents to reason through a diverse toolset. We implement a ReAct-style interaction loop and evaluate both open and closed-source LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Qwen2.5) on 486 structured agentic tasks with 1,773 expert-verified reasoning steps. The benchmark reports both step-wise execution metrics and final answer correctness. Our analysis reveals notable disparities in tool accuracy and planning consistency across models. ThinkGeo provides the first extensive testbed for evaluating how tool-enabled LLMs handle spatial reasoning in remote sensing.

Yohan Abeysinghe, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Sanoojan Baliah et al.

Air pollution remains a leading global health and environmental risk, particularly in regions vulnerable to episodic air pollution spikes due to wildfires, urban haze and dust storms. Accurate forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentrations is essential to enable timely public health warnings and interventions, yet existing models often underestimate rare but hazardous pollution events. Here, we present SynCast, a high-resolution neural forecasting model that integrates meteorological and air composition data to improve predictions of both average and extreme pollution levels. Built on a regionally adapted transformer backbone and enhanced with a diffusion-based stochastic refinement module, SynCast captures the nonlinear dynamics driving PM spikes more accurately than existing approaches. Leveraging on harmonized ERA5 and CAMS datasets, our model shows substantial gains in forecasting fidelity across multiple PM variables (PM$_1$, PM$_{2.5}$, PM$_{10}$), especially under extreme conditions. We demonstrate that conventional loss functions underrepresent distributional tails (rare pollution events) and show that SynCast, guided by domain-aware objectives and extreme value theory, significantly enhances performance in highly impacted regions without compromising global accuracy. This approach provides a scalable foundation for next-generation air quality early warning systems and supports climate-health risk mitigation in vulnerable regions.

Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Muhammad Haris Khan, M. Saquib Sarfraz et al.

We study adapting trained object detectors to unseen domains manifesting significant variations of object appearance, viewpoints and backgrounds. Most current methods align domains by either using image or instance-level feature alignment in an adversarial fashion. This often suffers due to the presence of unwanted background and as such lacks class-specific alignment. A common remedy to promote class-level alignment is to use high confidence predictions on the unlabelled domain as pseudo labels. These high confidence predictions are often fallacious since the model is poorly calibrated under domain shift. In this paper, we propose to leverage model predictive uncertainty to strike the right balance between adversarial feature alignment and class-level alignment. Specifically, we measure predictive uncertainty on class assignments and the bounding box predictions. Model predictions with low uncertainty are used to generate pseudo-labels for self-supervision, whereas the ones with higher uncertainty are used to generate tiles for an adversarial feature alignment stage. This synergy between tiling around the uncertain object regions and generating pseudo-labels from highly certain object regions allows us to capture both the image and instance level context during the model adaptation stage. We perform extensive experiments covering various domain shift scenarios. Our approach improves upon existing state-of-the-art methods with visible margins.

Abdul Basit, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Mohsen Ali et al.

Visual identification of gunmen in a crowd is a challenging problem, that requires resolving the association of a person with an object (firearm). We present a novel approach to address this problem, by defining human-object interaction (and non-interaction) bounding boxes. In a given image, human and firearms are separately detected. Each detected human is paired with each detected firearm, allowing us to create a paired bounding box that contains both object and the human. A network is trained to classify these paired-bounding-boxes into human carrying the identified firearm or not. Extensive experiments were performed to evaluate effectiveness of the algorithm, including exploiting full pose of the human, hand key-points, and their association with the firearm. The knowledge of spatially localized features is key to success of our method by using multi-size proposals with adaptive average pooling. We have also extended a previously firearm detection dataset, by adding more images and tagging in extended dataset the human-firearm pairs (including bounding boxes for firearms and gunmen). The experimental results ($AP_{hold} = 78.5$) demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed method.

Javed Iqbal, Muhammad Akhtar Munir, Arif Mahmood et al.

Automatic detection of firearms is important for enhancing the security and safety of people, however, it is a challenging task owing to the wide variations in shape, size, and appearance of firearms. Also, most of the generic object detectors process axis-aligned rectangular areas though, a thin and long rifle may actually cover only a small percentage of that area and the rest may contain irrelevant details suppressing the required object signatures. To handle these challenges, we propose a weakly supervised Orientation Aware Object Detection (OAOD) algorithm which learns to detect oriented object bounding boxes (OBB) while using AxisAligned Bounding Boxes (AABB) for training. The proposed OAOD is different from the existing oriented object detectors which strictly require OBB during training which may not always be present. The goal of training on AABB and detection of OBB is achieved by employing a multistage scheme, with Stage-1 predicting the AABB and Stage-2 predicting OBB. In-between the two stages, the oriented proposal generation module along with the object aligned RoI pooling is designed to extract features based on the predicted orientation and to make these features orientation invariant. A diverse and challenging dataset consisting of eleven thousand images is also proposed for firearm detection which is manually annotated for firearm classification and localization. The proposed ITU Firearm dataset (ITUF) contains a wide range of guns and rifles. The OAOD algorithm is evaluated on the ITUF dataset and compared with current state-of-the-art object detectors, including fully supervised oriented object detectors. OAOD has outperformed both types of object detectors with a significant margin. The experimental results (mAP: 88.3 on AABB & mAP: 77.5 on OBB) demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for firearm detection.