Georgios Palaiokrassas

Georgios Palaiokrassas, Sarah Bouraga, Leandros Tassiulas

Context: Blockchain technology has drawn growing attention in the literature and in practice. Blockchain technology generates considerable amounts of data and has thus been a topic of interest for Machine Learning (ML). Objective: The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of the state of the art on machine learning applied to blockchain data. This work aims to systematically identify, analyze, and classify the literature on ML applied to blockchain data. This will allow us to discover the fields where more effort should be placed in future research. Method: A systematic mapping study has been conducted to identify the relevant literature. Ultimately, 159 articles were selected and classified according to various dimensions, specifically, the domain use case, the blockchain, the data, and the machine learning models. Results: The majority of the papers (49.7%) fall within the Anomaly use case. Bitcoin (47.2%) was the blockchain that drew the most attention. A dataset consisting of more than 1.000.000 data points was used by 31.4% of the papers. And Classification (46.5%) was the ML task most applied to blockchain data. Conclusion: The results confirm that ML applied to blockchain data is a relevant and a growing topic of interest both in the literature and in practice. Nevertheless, some open challenges and gaps remain, which can lead to future research directions. Specifically, we identify novel machine learning algorithms, the lack of a standardization framework, blockchain scalability issues and cross-chain interactions as areas worth exploring in the future.

Eftychia Makri, Georgios Palaiokrassas, Sarah Bouraga et al.

Cryptocurrencies have transformed financial markets with their innovative blockchain technology and volatile price movements, presenting both challenges and opportunities for predictive analytics. Ethereum, being one of the leading cryptocurrencies, has experienced significant market fluctuations, making its price prediction an attractive yet complex problem. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the effectiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting Ethereum prices for short-term and few-shot forecasting scenarios. The main challenge in training models for time series analysis is the lack of data. We address this by leveraging a novel approach that adapts existing pre-trained LLMs on natural language or images from billions of tokens to the unique characteristics of Ethereum price time series data. Through thorough experimentation and comparison with traditional and contemporary models, our results demonstrate that selectively freezing certain layers of pre-trained LLMs achieves state-of-the-art performance in this domain. This approach consistently surpasses benchmarks across multiple metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness. Our research not only contributes to the existing body of knowledge on LLMs but also provides practical insights in the cryptocurrency prediction domain. The adaptability of pre-trained LLMs to handle the nature of Ethereum prices suggests a promising direction for future research, potentially including the integration of sentiment analysis to further refine forecasting accuracy.

Georgios Palaiokrassas, Sandro Scherrers, Iason Ofeidis et al.

Since the inception of permissionless blockchains with Bitcoin in 2008, it became apparent that their most well-suited use case is related to making the financial system and its advantages available to everyone seamlessly without depending on any trusted intermediaries. Smart contracts across chains provide an ecosystem of decentralized finance (DeFi), where users can interact with lending pools, Automated Market Maker (AMM) exchanges, stablecoins, derivatives, etc. with a cumulative locked value which had exceeded 160B USD. While DeFi comes with high rewards, it also carries plenty of risks. Many financial crimes have occurred over the years making the early detection of malicious activity an issue of high priority. The proposed framework introduces an effective method for extracting a set of features from different chains, including the largest one, Ethereum and it is evaluated over an extensive dataset we gathered with the transactions of the most widely used DeFi protocols (23 in total, including Aave, Compound, Curve, Lido, and Yearn) based on a novel dataset in collaboration with Covalent. Different Machine Learning methods were employed, such as XGBoost and a Neural Network for identifying fraud accounts detection interacting with DeFi and we demonstrate that the introduction of novel DeFi-related features, significantly improves the evaluation results, where Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score and F2-score where utilized.