Ertuğrul Keçeci

Ertugrul Kececi, Tufan Kumbasar

Recent advances in Deep Learning (DL) have strengthened data-driven System Identification (SysID), with Neural and Fuzzy Ordinary Differential Equation (NODE/FODE) models achieving high accuracy in nonlinear dynamic modeling. Yet, system states in these frameworks are often reconstructed without clear physical meaning, and input contributions to the state derivatives remain difficult to interpret. To address these limitations, we propose Explainable FODE (xFODE), an interpretable SysID framework with integrated DL-based training. In xFODE, we define states in an incremental form to provide them with physical meanings. We employ fuzzy additive models to approximate the state derivative, thereby enhancing interpretability per input. To provide further interpretability, Partitioning Strategies (PSs) are developed, enabling the training of fuzzy additive models with explainability. By structuring the antecedent space during training so that only two consecutive rules are activated for any given input, PSs not only yield lower complexity for local inference but also enhance the interpretability of the antecedent space. To train xFODE, we present a DL framework with parameterized membership function learning that supports end-to-end optimization. Across benchmark SysID datasets, xFODE matches the accuracy of NODE, FODE, and NLARX models while providing interpretable insights.

Ertugrul Kececi, Tufan Kumbasar

Recent advances in Deep Learning (DL) have boosted data-driven System Identification (SysID), but reliable use requires Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) alongside accurate predictions. Although UQ-capable models such as Fuzzy ODE (FODE) can produce Prediction Intervals (PIs), they offer limited interpretability. We introduce Explainable Type-2 Fuzzy Additive ODEs for UQ (xFODE+), an interpretable SysID model which produces PIs alongside point predictions while retaining physically meaningful incremental states. xFODE+ implements each fuzzy additive model with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2-FLSs) and constraints membership functions to the activation of two neighboring rules, limiting overlap and keeping inference locally transparent. The type-reduced sets produced by the IT2-FLSs are aggregated to construct the state update together with the PIs. The model is trained in a DL framework via a composite loss that jointly optimizes prediction accuracy and PI quality. Results on benchmark SysID datasets show that xFODE+ matches FODE in PI quality and achieves comparable accuracy, while providing interpretability.

Ertuğrul Keçeci, Müjde Güzelkaya, Tufan Kumbasar

This paper addresses the System Identification (SYSID) problem within the framework of federated learning. We introduce a novel algorithm, Incremental Clustering-based federated learning method for SYSID (IC-SYSID), designed to tackle SYSID challenges across multiple data sources without prior knowledge. IC-SYSID utilizes an incremental clustering method, ClusterCraft (CC), to eliminate the dependency on the prior knowledge of the dataset. CC starts with a single cluster model and assigns similar local workers to the same clusters by dynamically increasing the number of clusters. To reduce the number of clusters generated by CC, we introduce ClusterMerge, where similar cluster models are merged. We also introduce enhanced ClusterCraft to reduce the generation of similar cluster models during the training. Moreover, IC-SYSID addresses cluster model instability by integrating a regularization term into the loss function and initializing cluster models with scaled Glorot initialization. It also utilizes a mini-batch deep learning approach to manage large SYSID datasets during local training. Through the experiments conducted on a real-world representing SYSID problem, where a fleet of vehicles collaboratively learns vehicle dynamics, we show that IC-SYSID achieves a high SYSID performance while preventing the learning of unstable clusters.