Alberto Aleta

Henrique Ferraz de Arruda, Carlos Gracia Lázaro, Alberto Aleta et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as agents in simulations of social systems, yet it remains unclear when their behavior can be interpreted as a faithful proxy for human decision-making. Here we test LLM agents against a direct empirical benchmark: a large-scale networked Prisoner's Dilemma experiment with human participants. Using the same interaction protocol, payoff structure, and network topologies, we compare nine open-weight LLMs with the human data. The selected model reproduces several macro-level features of cooperation dynamics, including the early decline and later stabilization of cooperation. This aggregate agreement, however, does not extend uniformly to finer levels of behavior. LLM populations underestimate individual-level heterogeneity and generate conditional cooperation patterns that differ from those observed in humans. Adding a fraction of random agents improves some aspects of micro-level agreement, but does not remove the mismatch in decision rules. These findings reveal a macro--micro dissociation in LLM-based social agents: collective outcomes can appear human-like even when the underlying behavioral distributions and mechanisms are not. They suggest that validating LLM agents as human surrogates requires comparisons across aggregate dynamics, individual heterogeneity, and context-dependent decision rules, rather than outcome-level agreement alone.

Alberto Aleta, Marta Tuninetti, Daniela Paolotti et al.

Link prediction algorithms can help to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems, to reconstruct networks from incomplete data sets and to forecast future interactions in evolving networks. Available algorithms based on similarity between nodes are bounded by the limited amount of links present in these networks. In this work, we reduce this latter intrinsic limitation and show that different kind of relational data can be exploited to improve the prediction of new links. To this aim, we propose a novel link prediction algorithm by generalizing the Adamic-Adar method to multiplex networks composed by an arbitrary number of layers, that encode diverse forms of interactions. We show that the new metric outperforms the classical single-layered Adamic-Adar score and other state-of-the-art methods, across several social, biological and technological systems. As a byproduct, the coefficients that maximize the Multiplex Adamic-Adar metric indicate how the information structured in a multiplex network can be optimized for the link prediction task, revealing which layers are redundant. Interestingly, this effect can be asymmetric with respect to predictions in different layers. Our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the role of different relational data in predicting new interactions and provides a new algorithm for link prediction in multiplex networks that can be applied to a plethora of systems.