Daniel L. Ward

Daniel Ward, Patrick Cannon, Mark Beaumont et al.

Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as practical limits to model fidelity. In order to circumvent these difficulties, we argue that modellers must treat simulators as idealistic representations of the true data generating process, and consequently should thoughtfully consider the risk of model misspecification. In this work we revisit neural posterior estimation (NPE), a class of algorithms that enable black-box parameter inference in simulation models, and consider the implication of a simulation-to-reality gap. While recent works have demonstrated reliable performance of these methods, the analyses have been performed using synthetic data generated by the simulator model itself, and have therefore only addressed the well-specified case. In this paper, we find that the presence of misspecification, in contrast, leads to unreliable inference when NPE is used naively. As a remedy we argue that principled scientific inquiry with simulators should incorporate a model criticism component, to facilitate interpretable identification of misspecification and a robust inference component, to fit 'wrong but useful' models. We propose robust neural posterior estimation (RNPE), an extension of NPE to simultaneously achieve both these aims, through explicitly modelling the discrepancies between simulations and the observed data. We assess the approach on a range of artificially misspecified examples, and find RNPE performs well across the tasks, whereas naively using NPE leads to misleading and erratic posteriors.

Patrick Cannon, Daniel Ward, Sebastian M. Schmon

Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of performing flexible, black-box, approximate Bayesian inference for stochastic simulation models. While it has been demonstrated that neural SBI methods can provide accurate posterior approximations, the simulation studies establishing these results have considered only well-specified problems -- that is, where the model and the data generating process coincide exactly. However, the behaviour of such algorithms in the case of model misspecification has received little attention. In this work, we provide the first comprehensive study of the behaviour of neural SBI algorithms in the presence of various forms of model misspecification. We find that misspecification can have a profoundly deleterious effect on performance. Some mitigation strategies are explored, but no approach tested prevents failure in all cases. We conclude that new approaches are required to address model misspecification if neural SBI algorithms are to be relied upon to derive accurate scientific conclusions.

Joshua Knights, Ben Harwood, Daniel Ward et al.

This paper presents TCE: Temporally Coherent Embeddings for self-supervised video representation learning. The proposed method exploits inherent structure of unlabeled video data to explicitly enforce temporal coherency in the embedding space, rather than indirectly learning it through ranking or predictive proxy tasks. In the same way that high-level visual information in the world changes smoothly, we believe that nearby frames in learned representations will benefit from demonstrating similar properties. Using this assumption, we train our TCE model to encode videos such that adjacent frames exist close to each other and videos are separated from one another. Using TCE we learn robust representations from large quantities of unlabeled video data. We thoroughly analyse and evaluate our self-supervised learned TCE models on a downstream task of video action recognition using multiple challenging benchmarks (Kinetics400, UCF101, HMDB51). With a simple but effective 2D-CNN backbone and only RGB stream inputs, TCE pre-trained representations outperform all previous selfsupervised 2D-CNN and 3D-CNN pre-trained on UCF101. The code and pre-trained models for this paper can be downloaded at: https://github.com/csiro-robotics/TCE

Robert Lee, Daniel Ward, Akansel Cosgun et al.

Manipulating deformable objects, such as fabric, is a long standing problem in robotics, with state estimation and control posing a significant challenge for traditional methods. In this paper, we show that it is possible to learn fabric folding skills in only an hour of self-supervised real robot experience, without human supervision or simulation. Our approach relies on fully convolutional networks and the manipulation of visual inputs to exploit learned features, allowing us to create an expressive goal-conditioned pick and place policy that can be trained efficiently with real world robot data only. Folding skills are learned with only a sparse reward function and thus do not require reward function engineering, merely an image of the goal configuration. We demonstrate our method on a set of towel-folding tasks, and show that our approach is able to discover sequential folding strategies, purely from trial-and-error. We achieve state-of-the-art results without the need for demonstrations or simulation, used in prior approaches. Videos available at: https://sites.google.com/view/learningtofold

Daniel Ward, Peyman Moghadam

The traditional paradigm of applying deep learning -- collect, annotate and train on data -- is not applicable to image-based plant phenotyping as almost 400,000 different plant species exists. Data costs include growing physical samples, imaging and labelling them. Model performance is impacted by the species gap between the domain of each plant species, it is not generalisable and may not transfer to unseen plant species. In this paper, we investigate the use of synthetic data for leaf instance segmentation. We study multiple synthetic data training regimes using Mask-RCNN when few or no annotated real data is available. We also present UPGen: a Universal Plant Generator for bridging the species gap. UPGen leverages domain randomisation to produce widely distributed data samples and models stochastic biological variation. Our methods outperform standard practices, such as transfer learning from publicly available plant data, by 26.6% and 51.46% on two unseen plant species respectively. We benchmark UPGen by competing in the CVPPP Leaf Segmentation Challenge and set a new state-of-the-art, a mean of 88% across A1-4 test datasets. This study is applicable to use of synthetic data for automating the measurement of phenotypic traits. Our synthetic dataset and pretrained model are available at https://csiro-robotics.github.io/UPGen_Webpage/.