Bruno Coelho

Shujaat Mirza, Bruno Coelho, Yuyuan Cui et al.

The increasing reliance on AI-driven solutions, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) like the GPT series, for information retrieval highlights the critical need for their factuality and fairness, especially amidst the rampant spread of misinformation and disinformation online. Our study evaluates the factual accuracy, stability, and biases in widely adopted GPT models, including GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, contributing to reliability and integrity of AI-mediated information dissemination. We introduce 'Global-Liar,' a dataset uniquely balanced in terms of geographic and temporal representation, facilitating a more nuanced evaluation of LLM biases. Our analysis reveals that newer iterations of GPT models do not always equate to improved performance. Notably, the GPT-4 version from March demonstrates higher factual accuracy than its subsequent June release. Furthermore, a concerning bias is observed, privileging statements from the Global North over the Global South, thus potentially exacerbating existing informational inequities. Regions such as Africa and the Middle East are at a disadvantage, with much lower factual accuracy. The performance fluctuations over time suggest that model updates may not consistently benefit all regions equally. Our study also offers insights into the impact of various LLM configuration settings, such as binary decision forcing, model re-runs and temperature, on model's factuality. Models constrained to binary (true/false) choices exhibit reduced factuality compared to those allowing an 'unclear' option. Single inference at a low temperature setting matches the reliability of majority voting across various configurations. The insights gained highlight the need for culturally diverse and geographically inclusive model training and evaluation. This approach is key to achieving global equity in technology, distributing AI benefits fairly worldwide.

Bruno Coelho, Shujaat Mirza, Yuyuan Cui et al.

Fact-checking is a potentially useful application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to combat the growing dissemination of disinformation. However, the performance of LLMs varies across geographic regions. In this paper, we evaluate the factual accuracy of open and private models across a diverse set of regions and scenarios. Using a dataset containing 600 fact-checked statements balanced across six global regions we examine three experimental setups of fact-checking a statement: (1) when just the statement is available, (2) when an LLM-based agent with Wikipedia access is utilized, and (3) as a best case scenario when a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) system provided with the official fact check is employed. Our findings reveal that regardless of the scenario and LLM used, including GPT-4, Claude Sonnet, and LLaMA, statements from the Global North perform substantially better than those from the Global South. Furthermore, this gap is broadened for the more realistic case of a Wikipedia agent-based system, highlighting that overly general knowledge bases have a limited ability to address region-specific nuances. These results underscore the urgent need for better dataset balancing and robust retrieval strategies to enhance LLM fact-checking capabilities, particularly in geographically diverse contexts.

Peter Xenopoulos, Bruno Coelho, Claudio Silva

The outputs of win probability models are often used to evaluate player actions. However, in some sports, such as the popular esport Counter-Strike, there exist important team-level decisions. For example, at the beginning of each round in a Counter-Strike game, teams decide how much of their in-game dollars to spend on equipment. Because the dollars are a scarce resource, different strategies have emerged concerning how teams should spend in particular situations. To assess team purchasing decisions in-game, we introduce a game-level win probability model to predict a team's chance of winning a game at the beginning of a given round. We consider features such as team scores, equipment, money, and spending decisions. Using our win probability model, we investigate optimal team spending decisions for important game scenarios. We identify a pattern of sub-optimal decision-making for CSGO teams. Finally, we introduce a metric, Optimal Spending Error (OSE), to rank teams by how closely their spending decisions follow our predicted optimal spending decisions.