Danaja Rutar

John Burden, Konstantinos Voudouris, Ryan Burnell et al. · cambridge

As machine learning models become more general, we need to characterise them in richer, more meaningful ways. We describe a method to infer the cognitive profile of a system from diverse experimental data. To do so, we introduce measurement layouts that model how task-instance features interact with system capabilities to affect performance. These features must be triangulated in complex ways to be able to infer capabilities from non-populational data -- a challenge for traditional psychometric and inferential tools. Using the Bayesian probabilistic programming library PyMC, we infer different cognitive profiles for agents in two scenarios: 68 actual contestants in the AnimalAI Olympics and 30 synthetic agents for O-PIAAGETS, an object permanence battery. We showcase the potential for capability-oriented evaluation.

Lexin Zhou, Pablo A. Moreno-Casares, Fernando Martínez-Plumed et al. · cambridge

We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of Predictable AI, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key validity indicators (e.g., performance, safety) of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be prioritised over performance. We formally characterise predictability, explore its most relevant components, illustrate what can be predicted, describe alternative candidates for predictors, as well as the trade-offs between maximising validity and predictability. To illustrate these concepts, we bring an array of illustrative examples covering diverse ecosystem configurations. Predictable AI is related to other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, but have distinctive questions, hypotheses, techniques and challenges. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards a landscape of predictably valid AI systems and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Danaja Rutar, Alva Markelius, Konstantinos Voudouris et al. · cambridge

One of the core components of our world models is 'intuitive physics' - an understanding of objects, space, and causality. This capability enables us to predict events, plan action and navigate environments, all of which rely on a composite sense of objecthood. Despite its importance, there is no single, unified account of objecthood, though multiple theoretical frameworks provide insights. In the first part of this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of the main theoretical frameworks in objecthood research - Gestalt psychology, enactive cognition, and developmental psychology - and identify the core capabilities each framework attributes to object understanding, as well as what functional roles they play in shaping world models in biological agents. Given the foundational role of objecthood in world modelling, understanding objecthood is also essential in AI. In the second part of the paper, we evaluate how current AI paradigms approach and test objecthood capabilities compared to those in cognitive science. We define an AI paradigm as a combination of how objecthood is conceptualised, the methods used for studying objecthood, the data utilised, and the evaluation techniques. We find that, whilst benchmarks can detect that AI systems model isolated aspects of objecthood, the benchmarks cannot detect when AI systems lack functional integration across these capabilities, not solving the objecthood challenge fully. Finally, we explore novel evaluation approaches that align with the integrated vision of objecthood outlined in this paper. These methods are promising candidates for advancing from isolated object capabilities toward general-purpose AI with genuine object understanding in real-world contexts.