Anastase Charantonis

Theo Archambault, Arthur Filoche, Anastase Charantonis et al.

Satellite-based remote sensing missions have revolutionized our understanding of the Ocean state and dynamics. Among them, space-borne altimetry provides valuable Sea Surface Height (SSH) measurements, used to estimate surface geostrophic currents. Due to the sensor technology employed, important gaps occur in SSH observations. Complete SSH maps are produced using linear Optimal Interpolations (OI) such as the widely-used Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System (DUACS). On the other hand, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products have much higher data coverage and SST is physically linked to geostrophic currents through advection. We propose a new multi-variate Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) emulating 20 years of SSH and SST satellite observations. We train an Attention-Based Encoder-Decoder deep learning network (\textsc{abed}) on this data, comparing two settings: one with access to ground truth during training and one without. On our OSSE, we compare ABED reconstructions when trained using either supervised or unsupervised loss functions, with or without SST information. We evaluate the SSH interpolations in terms of eddy detection. We also introduce a new way to transfer the learning from simulation to observations: supervised pre-training on our OSSE followed by unsupervised fine-tuning on satellite data. Based on real SSH observations from the Ocean Data Challenge 2021, we find that this learning strategy, combined with the use of SST, decreases the root mean squared error by 24% compared to OI.

Arthur Filoche, Julien Brajard, Anastase Charantonis et al.

Variational data assimilation and deep learning share many algorithmic aspects in common. While the former focuses on system state estimation, the latter provides great inductive biases to learn complex relationships. We here design a hybrid architecture learning the assimilation task directly from partial and noisy observations, using the mechanistic constraint of the 4DVAR algorithm. Finally, we show in an experiment that the proposed method was able to learn the desired inversion with interesting regularizing properties and that it also has computational interests.

Julie Keisler, Anastase Alexandre Charantonis, Yannig Goude et al.

Domain alignment refers broadly to learning correspondences between data distributions from distinct domains. In this work, we focus on a setting where domains share underlying structural patterns despite differences in their specific realizations. The task is particularly challenging in the absence of paired observations, which removes direct supervision across domains. We introduce a generative framework, called SerpentFlow (SharEd-structuRe decomPosition for gEnerative domaiN adapTation), for unpaired domain alignment. SerpentFlow decomposes data within a latent space into a shared component common to both domains and a domain-specific one. By isolating the shared structure and replacing the domain-specific component with stochastic noise, we construct synthetic training pairs between shared representations and target-domain samples, thereby enabling the use of conditional generative models that are traditionally restricted to paired settings. We apply this approach to super-resolution tasks, where the shared component naturally corresponds to low-frequency content while high-frequency details capture domain-specific variability. The cutoff frequency separating low- and high-frequency components is determined automatically using a classifier-based criterion, ensuring a data-driven and domain-adaptive decomposition. By generating pseudo-pairs that preserve low-frequency structures while injecting stochastic high-frequency realizations, we learn the conditional distribution of the target domain given the shared representation. We implement SerpentFlow using Flow Matching as the generative pipeline, although the framework is compatible with other conditional generative approaches. Experiments on synthetic images, physical process simulations, and a climate downscaling task demonstrate that the method effectively reconstructs high-frequency structures consistent with underlying low-frequency patterns, supporting shared-structure decomposition as an effective strategy for unpaired domain alignment.

Guillaume Couairon, Renu Singh, Anastase Charantonis et al.

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in today's society, from agriculture and logistics to predicting the output of renewable energies, and preparing for extreme weather events. Deep learning weather forecasting models trained with the next state prediction objective on ERA5 have shown great success compared to numerical global circulation models. However, for a wide range of applications, being able to provide representative samples from the distribution of possible future weather states is critical. In this paper, we propose a methodology to leverage deterministic weather models in the design of probabilistic weather models, leading to improved performance and reduced computing costs. We first introduce \textbf{ArchesWeather}, a transformer-based deterministic model that improves upon Pangu-Weather by removing overrestrictive inductive priors. We then design a probabilistic weather model called \textbf{ArchesWeatherGen} based on flow matching, a modern variant of diffusion models, that is trained to project ArchesWeather's predictions to the distribution of ERA5 weather states. ArchesWeatherGen is a true stochastic emulator of ERA5 and surpasses IFS ENS and NeuralGCM on all WeatherBench headline variables (except for NeuralGCM's geopotential). Our work also aims to democratize the use of deterministic and generative machine learning models in weather forecasting research, with academic computing resources. All models are trained at 1.5° resolution, with a training budget of $\sim$9 V100 days for ArchesWeather and $\sim$45 V100 days for ArchesWeatherGen. For inference, ArchesWeatherGen generates 15-day weather trajectories at a rate of 1 minute per ensemble member on a A100 GPU card. To make our work fully reproducible, our code and models are open source, including the complete pipeline for data preparation, training, and evaluation, at https://github.com/INRIA/geoarches .

Guillaume Couairon, Christian Lessig, Anastase Charantonis et al.

One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed with local neural interactions, like 3D convolutions or 3D local attention windows as in Pangu-Weather. On the other hand, some works have shown great success in weather forecasting without this locality principle, at the cost of a much higher parameter count. In this paper, we show that the 3D local processing in Pangu-Weather is computationally sub-optimal. We design ArchesWeather, a transformer model that combines 2D attention with a column-wise attention-based feature interaction module, and demonstrate that this design improves forecasting skill. ArchesWeather is trained at 1.5° resolution and 24h lead time, with a training budget of a few GPU-days and a lower inference cost than competing methods. An ensemble of four of our models shows better RMSE scores than the IFS HRES and is competitive with the 1.4° 50-members NeuralGCM ensemble for one to three days ahead forecasting. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/gcouairon/ArchesWeather.

Ganglin Tian, Camille Le Coz, Anastase Alexandre Charantonis et al.

Sub-seasonal wind speed forecasts provide valuable guidance for wind power system planning and operations, yet the forecast skills of surface winds decrease sharply after two weeks. However, large-scale variables exhibit greater predictability on this time scale. This study explores the potential of leveraging non-linear relationships between 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and surface wind speed to improve sub-seasonal wind speed forecast skills in Europe. Our proposed framework uses a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to regress surface wind speed from Z500. Evaluations on ERA5 reanalysis indicate that the CNN performs better due to its non-linearity. Applying these models to sub-seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, various verification metrics demonstrate the advantages of non-linearity. Yet, this is partly explained by the fact that these statistical models are under-dispersive since they explain only a fraction of the target variable variance. Introducing stochastic perturbations to represent the stochasticity of the unexplained part from the signal helps compensate for this issue. Results show that the perturbed CNN performs better than the perturbed MLR only in the first weeks, while the perturbed MLR's performance converges towards that of the perturbed CNN after two weeks. The study finds that introducing stochastic perturbations can address the issue of insufficient spread in these statistical models, with improvements from the non-linearity varying with the lead time of the forecasts.

Ganglin Tian, Anastase Alexandre Charantonis, Camille Le Coz et al.

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale atmospheric predictors such as 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500), which exhibit higher predictability than surface variables and can be downscaled to obtain more localised information. Previous work by Tian et al. (2024) demonstrated that stochastic perturbations based on model residuals can improve ensemble dispersion representation in statistical downscaling frameworks, but this method fails to represent spatial correlations and physical consistency adequately. More sophisticated approaches are needed to capture the complex relationships between large-scale predictors and local-scale predictands while maintaining physical consistency. Probabilistic deep learning models offer promising solutions for capturing complex spatial dependencies. This study evaluates three probabilistic methods with distinct uncertainty quantification mechanisms: Quantile Regression Neural Network that directly models distribution quantiles, Variational Autoencoders that leverage latent space sampling, and Diffusion Models that utilise iterative denoising. These models are trained on ERA5 reanalysis data and applied to ECMWF sub-seasonal hindcasts to regress probabilistic wind speed ensembles. Our results show that probabilistic downscaling approaches provide more realistic spatial uncertainty representations compared to simpler stochastic methods, with each probabilistic model offering different strengths in terms of ensemble dispersion, deterministic skill, and physical consistency. These findings establish probabilistic downscaling as an effective enhancement to operational sub-seasonal wind forecasts for renewable energy planning and risk assessment.

Graham Clyne, Guillaume Couairon, Guillaume Gastineau et al.

Climate projections have uncertainties related to components of the climate system and their interactions. A typical approach to quantifying these uncertainties is to use climate models to create ensembles of repeated simulations under different initial conditions. Due to the complexity of these simulations, generating such ensembles of projections is computationally expensive. In this work, we present ArchesClimate, a deep learning-based climate model emulator that aims to reduce this cost. ArchesClimate is trained on decadal hindcasts of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model at a spatial resolution of approximately 2.5x1.25 degrees. We train a flow matching model following ArchesWeatherGen, which we adapt to predict near-term climate. Once trained, the model generates states at a one-month lead time and can be used to auto-regressively emulate climate model simulations of any length. We show that for up to 10 years, these generations are stable and physically consistent. We also show that for several important climate variables, ArchesClimate generates simulations that are interchangeable with the IPSL model. This work suggests that climate model emulators could significantly reduce the cost of climate model simulations.

David Landry, Claire Monteleoni, Anastase Charantonis

We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the correlation structures of the observations distribution, while also improving marginal performance at the stations. FMAP generates forecasts that are not bound to what is already modeled by the underlying gridded prediction and can infer new correlation structures from data. The resulting model can generate an arbitrary number of forecasts from a limited number of numerical simulations, allowing for low-cost forecasting systems. A single training is sufficient to perform postprocessing at multiple lead times, in contrast with other methods which use multiple trained networks at generation time. This work details our methodology, including a spatial attention transformer backbone trained within a flow matching generative modeling framework. FMAP shows promising performance in experiments on the EUPPBench dataset, forecasting surface temperature and wind gust values at station locations in western Europe up to five-day lead times.

Pierre Garcia, Inès Larroche, Amélie Pesnec et al.

We present ORCAst, a multi-stage, multi-arm network for Operational high-Resolution Current forecAsts over one week. Producing real-time nowcasts and forecasts of ocean surface currents is a challenging problem due to indirect or incomplete information from satellite remote sensing data. Entirely trained on real satellite data and in situ measurements from drifters, our model learns to forecast global ocean surface currents using various sources of ground truth observations in a multi-stage learning procedure. Our multi-arm encoder-decoder model architecture allows us to first predict sea surface height and geostrophic currents from larger quantities of nadir and SWOT altimetry data, before learning to predict ocean surface currents from much more sparse in situ measurements from drifters. Training our model on specific regions improves performance. Our model achieves stronger nowcast and forecast performance in predicting ocean surface currents than various state-of-the-art methods.

Vincent Bouget, Dominique Béréziat, Julien Brajard et al.

Short- or mid-term rainfall forecasting is a major task with several environmental applications such as agricultural management or flood risk monitoring. Existing data-driven approaches, especially deep learning models, have shown significant skill at this task, using only rainfall radar images as inputs. In order to determine whether using other meteorological parameters such as wind would improve forecasts, we trained a deep learning model on a fusion of rainfall radar images and wind velocity produced by a weather forecast model. The network was compared to a similar architecture trained only on radar data, to a basic persistence model and to an approach based on optical flow. Our network outperforms by 8% the F1-score calculated for the optical flow on moderate and higher rain events for forecasts at a horizon time of 30 min. Furthermore, it outperforms by 7% the same architecture trained using only rainfall radar images. Merging rain and wind data has also proven to stabilize the training process and enabled significant improvement especially on the difficult-to-predict high precipitation rainfalls.

Julien Brajard, Anastase Charantonis, Jérôme Sirven

In numerical modeling of the Earth System, many processes remain unknown or ill represented (let us quote sub-grid processes, the dependence to unknown latent variables or the non-inclusion of complex dynamics in numerical models) but sometimes can be observed. This paper proposes a methodology to produce a hybrid model combining a physical-based model (forecasting the well-known processes) with a neural-net model trained from observations (forecasting the remaining processes). The approach is applied to a shallow-water model in which the forcing, dissipative and diffusive terms are assumed to be unknown. We show that the hybrid model is able to reproduce with great accuracy the unknown terms (correlation close to 1). For long term simulations it reproduces with no significant difference the mean state, the kinetic energy, the potential energy and the potential vorticity of the system. Lastly it is able to function with new forcings that were not encountered during the training phase of the neural network.