Abhinav Pandey

Lancelot F. James, Juho Lee, Abhinav Pandey

We introduce the Poisson Hierarchical Indian Buffet Process (PHIBP), a new class of species sampling models designed to address the challenges of complex, sparse count data by facilitating information sharing across and within groups. Our theoretical developments enable a tractable Bayesian nonparametric framework with machine learning elements, accommodating a potentially infinite number of species (taxa) whose parameters are learned from data. Focusing on microbiome analysis, we address key gaps by providing a flexible multivariate count model that accounts for overdispersion and robustly handles diverse data types (OTUs, ASVs). We introduce novel parameters reflecting species abundance and diversity. The model borrows strength across groups while explicitly distinguishing between technical and biological zeros to interpret sparse co-occurrence patterns. This results in a framework with tractable posterior inference, exact generative sampling, and a principled solution to the unseen species problem. We describe extensions where domain experts can incorporate knowledge through covariates and structured priors, with potential for strain-level analysis. While motivated by ecology, our work provides a broadly applicable methodology for hierarchical count modeling in genetics, commerce, and text analysis, and has significant implications for the broader theory of species sampling models arising in probability and statistics.

Creighton Heaukulani, Abhinav Pandey, Lancelot F. James

Modeling the trading volume curves of financial instruments throughout the day is of key interest in financial trading applications. Predictions of these so-called volume profiles guide trade execution strategies, for example, a common strategy is to trade a desired quantity across many orders in line with the expected volume curve throughout the day so as not to impact the price of the instrument. The volume curves (for each day) are naturally grouped by stock and can be further gathered into higher-level groupings, such as by industry. In order to model such admixtures of volume curves, we introduce a hierarchical Poisson process model for the intensity functions of admixtures of inhomogenous Poisson processes, which represent the trading times of the stock throughout the day. The model is based on the hierarchical Dirichlet process, and an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is derived following the slice sampling framework for Bayesian nonparametric mixture models. We demonstrate the method on datasets of different stocks from the Trade and Quote repository maintained by Wharton Research Data Services, including the most liquid stock on the NASDAQ stock exchange, Apple, demonstrating the scalability of the approach.