Niangjun Chen

Christian Kurniawan, Xiyu Deng, Adhiraj Chakraborty et al. · cmu

Microfinance, despite its significant potential for poverty reduction, is facing sustainability hardships due to high default rates. Although many methods in regular finance can estimate credit scores and default probabilities, these methods are not directly applicable to microfinance due to the following unique characteristics: a) under-explored (developing) areas such as rural Africa do not have sufficient prior loan data for microfinance institutions (MFIs) to establish a credit scoring system; b) microfinance applicants may have difficulty providing sufficient information for MFIs to accurately predict default probabilities; and c) many MFIs use group liability (instead of collateral) to secure repayment. Here, we present a novel control-theoretic model of microfinance that accounts for these characteristics. We construct an algorithm to learn microfinance decision policies that achieve financial inclusion, fairness, social welfare, and sustainability. We characterize the convergence conditions to Pareto-optimum and the convergence speeds. We demonstrate, in numerous real and synthetic datasets, that the proposed method accounts for the complexities induced by group liability to produce robust decisions before sufficient loans are given to establish credit scoring systems and for applicants whose default probability cannot be accurately estimated due to missing information. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to connect microfinance and control theory. We envision that the connection will enable safe learning and control techniques to help modernize microfinance and alleviate poverty.

Tomomasa Yamasaki, Zhehui Wang, Tao Luo et al.

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is an automated technique to design optimal neural network architectures for a specific workload. Conventionally, evaluating candidate networks in NAS involves extensive training, which requires significant time and computational resources. To address this, training-free NAS has been proposed to expedite network evaluation with minimal search time. However, state-of-the-art training-free NAS algorithms struggle to precisely distinguish well-performing networks from poorly-performing networks, resulting in inaccurate performance predictions and consequently sub-optimal top-1 network accuracy. Moreover, they are less effective in activation function exploration. To tackle the challenges, this paper proposes RBFleX-NAS, a novel training-free NAS framework that accounts for both activation outputs and input features of the last layer with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel. We also present a detection algorithm to identify optimal hyperparameters using the obtained activation outputs and input feature maps. We verify the efficacy of RBFleX-NAS over a variety of NAS benchmarks. RBFleX-NAS significantly outperforms state-of-the-art training-free NAS methods in terms of top-1 accuracy, achieving this with short search time in NAS-Bench-201 and NAS-Bench-SSS. In addition, it demonstrates higher Kendall correlation compared to layer-based training-free NAS algorithms. Furthermore, we propose NAFBee, a new activation design space that extends the activation type to encompass various commonly used functions. In this extended design space, RBFleX-NAS demonstrates its superiority by accurately identifying the best-performing network during activation function search, providing a significant advantage over other NAS algorithms.

Niangjun Chen, Gautam Goel, Adam Wierman

We study Smoothed Online Convex Optimization, a version of online convex optimization where the learner incurs a penalty for changing her actions between rounds. Given a $Ω(\sqrt{d})$ lower bound on the competitive ratio of any online algorithm, where $d$ is the dimension of the action space, we ask under what conditions this bound can be beaten. We introduce a novel algorithmic framework for this problem, Online Balanced Descent (OBD), which works by iteratively projecting the previous point onto a carefully chosen level set of the current cost function so as to balance the switching costs and hitting costs. We demonstrate the generality of the OBD framework by showing how, with different choices of "balance," OBD can improve upon state-of-the-art performance guarantees for both competitive ratio and regret, in particular, OBD is the first algorithm to achieve a dimension-free competitive ratio, $3 + O(1/α)$, for locally polyhedral costs, where $α$ measures the "steepness" of the costs. We also prove bounds on the dynamic regret of OBD when the balance is performed in the dual space that are dimension-free and imply that OBD has sublinear static regret.

Niangjun Chen, Anish Agarwal, Adam Wierman et al.

Making use of predictions is a crucial, but under-explored, area of online algorithms. This paper studies a class of online optimization problems where we have external noisy predictions available. We propose a stochastic prediction error model that generalizes prior models in the learning and stochastic control communities, incorporates correlation among prediction errors, and captures the fact that predictions improve as time passes. We prove that achieving sublinear regret and constant competitive ratio for online algorithms requires the use of an unbounded prediction window in adversarial settings, but that under more realistic stochastic prediction error models it is possible to use Averaging Fixed Horizon Control (AFHC) to simultaneously achieve sublinear regret and constant competitive ratio in expectation using only a constant-sized prediction window. Furthermore, we show that the performance of AFHC is tightly concentrated around its mean.