Shelly Francis-Meretzki

Shelly Francis-Meretzki, Mirco Mutti, Yaniv Romano et al.

Recent advances in vision-language-action (VLA) models for robotics have highlighted the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification in sequential tasks. However, assessing and improving calibration in such settings remains mostly unexplored, especially when only partial trajectories are observed. In this work, we formulate sequential calibration for episodic tasks, where task-success confidence is produced along an episode, while success is determined at the end of it. We introduce a sequential extension of the Brier score and show that, for binary outcomes, its risk minimizer coincides with the VLA policy's value function. This connection bridges uncertainty calibration and reinforcement learning, enabling the use of temporal-difference (TD) value estimation as a principled calibration mechanism over time. We empirically show that TD calibration improves performance relative to the state-of-the-art on simulated and real-robot data. Interestingly, we show that when calibrated using TD, the VLA's single-step action probabilities can yield competitive uncertainty estimates, in contrast to recent findings that employed different calibration techniques.

Ev Zisselman, Mirco Mutti, Shelly Francis-Meretzki et al.

Behavioral cloning is a simple yet effective technique for learning sequential decision-making from demonstrations. Recently, it has gained prominence as the core of foundation models for the physical world, where achieving generalization requires countless demonstrations of a multitude of tasks. Typically, a human expert with full information on the task demonstrates a (nearly) optimal behavior. In this paper, we propose to hide some of the task's information from the demonstrator. This ``blindfolded'' expert is compelled to employ non-trivial exploration to solve the task. We show that cloning the blindfolded expert generalizes better to unseen tasks than its fully-informed counterpart. We conduct experiments of real-world robot peg insertion tasks with (limited) human demonstrations, alongside videogames from the Procgen benchmark. Additionally, we support our findings with theoretical analysis, which confirms that the generalization error scales with $\sqrt{I/m}$, where $I$ measures the amount of task information available to the demonstrator, and $m$ is the number of demonstrated tasks. Both theory and practice indicate that cloning blindfolded experts generalizes better with fewer demonstrated tasks. Project page with videos and code: https://sites.google.com/view/blindfoldedexperts/home