Alan Yang

Alan Yang, Yulin Chen, Sean Lee et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is of widespread interest across many industries, including finance, healthcare, and manufacturing. Despite the development of numerous automatic methods for detecting anomalies, human oversight remains necessary to review and act upon detected anomalies, as well as verify their accuracy. We study the use of multimodal large language models (LLMs) to partially automate this process. We find that LLMs can effectively identify false alarms by integrating visual inspection of time series plots with text descriptions of the data-generating process. By leveraging the capabilities of LLMs, we aim to reduce the reliance on human effort required to maintain a TSAD system

Alan Yang, Jie Xiong, Maxim Raginsky et al.

This paper proposes a class of neural ordinary differential equations parametrized by provably input-to-state stable continuous-time recurrent neural networks. The model dynamics are defined by construction to be input-to-state stable (ISS) with respect to an ISS-Lyapunov function that is learned jointly with the dynamics. We use the proposed method to learn cheap-to-simulate behavioral models for electronic circuits that can accurately reproduce the behavior of various digital and analog circuits when simulated by a commercial circuit simulator, even when interconnected with circuit components not encountered during training. We also demonstrate the feasibility of learning ISS-preserving perturbations to the dynamics for modeling degradation effects due to circuit aging.

AmirEmad Ghassami, Chang Liu, Alan Yang et al.

We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore, subjects in the experiment are only followed for a short period; thus, long-term effects are unobserved, though short-term effects are available. Consequently, neither data source alone suffices for causal inference on the long-term outcome, necessitating a principled fusion of the two. We propose three approaches for data fusion for the purpose of identifying and estimating the causal effect. The first assumes equal confounding bias for short-term and long-term outcomes. The second weakens this assumption by leveraging an observed confounder for which the short-term and long-term potential outcomes share the same partial additive association with this confounder. The third approach employs proxy variables of the latent confounder of the treatment-outcome relationship, extending the proximal causal inference framework to the data fusion setting. For each approach, we develop influence function-based estimators and analyze their robustness properties. We illustrate our methods by estimating the effect of class size on 8th-grade SAT scores using data from the Project STAR experiment combined with observational data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.

AmirEmad Ghassami, Alan Yang, Ilya Shpitser et al.

Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference approach to settings where identification of causal effects hinges upon a set of mediators which are not observed, yet error prone proxies of the hidden mediators are measured. Specifically, (i) We establish causal hidden mediation analysis, which extends classical causal mediation analysis methods for identifying natural direct and indirect effects under no unmeasured confounding to a setting where the mediator of interest is hidden, but proxies of it are available. (ii) We establish hidden front-door criterion, which extends the classical front-door criterion to allow for hidden mediators for which proxies are available. (iii) We show that the identification of a certain causal effect called population intervention indirect effect remains possible with hidden mediators in settings where challenges in (i) and (ii) might co-exist. We view (i)-(iii) as important steps towards the practical application of front-door criteria and mediation analysis as mediators are almost always measured with error and thus, the most one can hope for in practice is that the measurements are at best proxies of mediating mechanisms. We propose identification approaches for the parameters of interest in our considered models. For the estimation aspect, we propose an influence function-based estimation method and provide an analysis for the robustness of the estimators.

Alan Yang, AmirEmad Ghassami, Maxim Raginsky et al.

Markov blanket feature selection, while theoretically optimal, is generally challenging to implement. This is due to the shortcomings of existing approaches to conditional independence (CI) testing, which tend to struggle either with the curse of dimensionality or computational complexity. We propose a novel two-step approach which facilitates Markov blanket feature selection in high dimensions. First, neural networks are used to map features to low-dimensional representations. In the second step, CI testing is performed by applying the $k$-NN conditional mutual information estimator to the learned feature maps. The mappings are designed to ensure that mapped samples both preserve information and share similar information about the target variable if and only if they are close in Euclidean distance. We show that these properties boost the performance of the $k$-NN estimator in the second step. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real data.

AmirEmad Ghassami, Alan Yang, Negar Kiyavash et al.

The main approach to defining equivalence among acyclic directed causal graphical models is based on the conditional independence relationships in the distributions that the causal models can generate, in terms of the Markov equivalence. However, it is known that when cycles are allowed in the causal structure, conditional independence may not be a suitable notion for equivalence of two structures, as it does not reflect all the information in the distribution that is useful for identification of the underlying structure. In this paper, we present a general, unified notion of equivalence for linear Gaussian causal directed graphical models, whether they are cyclic or acyclic. In our proposed definition of equivalence, two structures are equivalent if they can generate the same set of data distributions. We also propose a weaker notion of equivalence called quasi-equivalence, which we show is the extent of identifiability from observational data. We propose analytic as well as graphical methods for characterizing the equivalence of two structures. Additionally, we propose a score-based method for learning the structure from observational data, which successfully deals with both acyclic and cyclic structures.