Hamish Flynn

Hamish Flynn, David Reeb, Melih Kandemir et al.

We present improved algorithms with worst-case regret guarantees for the stochastic linear bandit problem. The widely used "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle reduces a stochastic bandit problem to the construction of a confidence sequence for the unknown reward function. The performance of the resulting bandit algorithm depends on the size of the confidence sequence, with smaller confidence sets yielding better empirical performance and stronger regret guarantees. In this work, we use a novel tail bound for adaptive martingale mixtures to construct confidence sequences which are suitable for stochastic bandits. These confidence sequences allow for efficient action selection via convex programming. We prove that a linear bandit algorithm based on our confidence sequences is guaranteed to achieve competitive worst-case regret. We show that our confidence sequences are tighter than competitors, both empirically and theoretically. Finally, we demonstrate that our tighter confidence sequences give improved performance in several hyperparameter tuning tasks.

Hamish Flynn, David Reeb, Melih Kandemir et al.

PAC-Bayes has recently re-emerged as an effective theory with which one can derive principled learning algorithms with tight performance guarantees. However, applications of PAC-Bayes to bandit problems are relatively rare, which is a great misfortune. Many decision-making problems in healthcare, finance and natural sciences can be modelled as bandit problems. In many of these applications, principled algorithms with strong performance guarantees would be very much appreciated. This survey provides an overview of PAC-Bayes bounds for bandit problems and an experimental comparison of these bounds. On the one hand, we found that PAC-Bayes bounds are a useful tool for designing offline bandit algorithms with performance guarantees. In our experiments, a PAC-Bayesian offline contextual bandit algorithm was able to learn randomised neural network polices with competitive expected reward and non-vacuous performance guarantees. On the other hand, the PAC-Bayesian online bandit algorithms that we tested had loose cumulative regret bounds. We conclude by discussing some topics for future work on PAC-Bayesian bandit algorithms.

Hamish Flynn, David Reeb, Melih Kandemir et al.

We present a PAC-Bayesian analysis of lifelong learning. In the lifelong learning problem, a sequence of learning tasks is observed one-at-a-time, and the goal is to transfer information acquired from previous tasks to new learning tasks. We consider the case when each learning task is a multi-armed bandit problem. We derive lower bounds on the expected average reward that would be obtained if a given multi-armed bandit algorithm was run in a new task with a particular prior and for a set number of steps. We propose lifelong learning algorithms that use our new bounds as learning objectives. Our proposed algorithms are evaluated in several lifelong multi-armed bandit problems and are found to perform better than a baseline method that does not use generalisation bounds.

Eugenio Clerico, Hamish Flynn, Wojciech Kotłowski et al.

We develop a methodology for constructing confidence sets for parameters of statistical models via a reduction to sequential prediction. Our key observation is that for any generalized linear model (GLM), one can construct an associated game of sequential probability assignment such that achieving low regret in the game implies a high-probability upper bound on the excess likelihood of the true parameter of the GLM. This allows us to develop a scheme that we call online-to-confidence-set conversions, which effectively reduces the problem of proving the desired statistical claim to an algorithmic question. We study two varieties of this conversion scheme: 1) analytical conversions that only require proving the existence of algorithms with low regret and provide confidence sets centered at the maximum-likelihood estimator 2) algorithmic conversions that actively leverage the output of the online algorithm to construct confidence sets (and may be centered at other, adaptively constructed point estimators). The resulting methodology recovers all state-of-the-art confidence set constructions within a single framework, and also provides several new types of confidence sets that were previously unknown in the literature.

Ludovic Schwartz, Hamish Flynn, Gergely Neu

Many high-dimensional online decision-making problems can be modeled as stochastic sparse linear bandits. Most existing algorithms are designed to achieve optimal worst-case regret in either the data-rich regime, where polynomial dependence on the ambient dimension is unavoidable, or the data-poor regime, where dimension-independence is possible at the cost of worse dependence on the number of rounds. In contrast, the sparse Information Directed Sampling (IDS) algorithm satisfies a Bayesian regret bound that has the optimal rate in both regimes simultaneously. In this work, we explore the use of Sparse Optimistic Information Directed Sampling (SOIDS) to achieve the same adaptivity in the worst-case setting, without Bayesian assumptions. Through a novel analysis that enables the use of a time-dependent learning rate, we show that SOIDS can optimally balance information and regret. Our results extend the theoretical guarantees of IDS, providing the first algorithm that simultaneously achieves optimal worst-case regret in both the data-rich and data-poor regimes. We empirically demonstrate the good performance of SOIDS.

Hamish Flynn

The sample complexity of estimating or maximising an unknown function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space is known to be linked to both the effective dimension and the information gain associated with the kernel. While the information gain has an attractive information-theoretic interpretation, the effective dimension typically results in better rates. We introduce a new quantity called the relative information gain, which measures the sensitivity of the information gain with respect to the observation noise. We show that the relative information gain smoothly interpolates between the effective dimension and the information gain, and that the relative information gain has the same growth rate as the effective dimension. In the second half of the paper, we prove a new PAC-Bayesian excess risk bound for Gaussian process regression. The relative information gain arises naturally from the complexity term in this PAC-Bayesian bound. We prove bounds on the relative information gain that depend on the spectral properties of the kernel. When these upper bounds are combined with our excess risk bound, we obtain minimax-optimal rates of convergence.

Hamish Flynn, Julia Olkhovskaya, Paul Rognon-Vael

This paper studies the problem of simultaneously learning relevant features and minimising regret in contextual bandit problems. We introduce and analyse a new class of contextual bandit problems, called sparse nonparametric contextual bandits, in which the expected reward function lies in the linear span of a small unknown set of features that belongs to a known infinite set of candidate features. We consider two notions of sparsity, for which the set of candidate features is either countable or uncountable. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we provide lower bounds on the minimax regret, which show that polynomial dependence on the number of actions is generally unavoidable in this setting. Second, we show that a variant of the Feel-Good Thompson Sampling algorithm enjoys regret bounds that match our lower bounds up to logarithmic factors of the horizon, and have logarithmic dependence on the effective number of candidate features. When we apply our results to kernelised and neural contextual bandits, we find that sparsity always enables better regret bounds, as long as the horizon is large enough relative to the sparsity and the number of actions.

Hamish Flynn, David Reeb

Confidence bounds are an essential tool for rigorously quantifying the uncertainty of predictions. They are a core component in many sequential learning and decision-making algorithms, with tighter confidence bounds giving rise to algorithms with better empirical performance and better performance guarantees. In this work, we use martingale tail inequalities to establish new confidence bounds for sequential kernel regression. Our confidence bounds can be computed by solving a conic program, although this bare version quickly becomes impractical, because the number of variables grows with the sample size. However, we show that the dual of this conic program allows us to efficiently compute tight confidence bounds. We prove that our new confidence bounds are always tighter than existing ones in this setting. We apply our confidence bounds to kernel bandit problems, and we find that when our confidence bounds replace existing ones, the KernelUCB (GP-UCB) algorithm has better empirical performance, a matching worst-case performance guarantee and comparable computational cost.