Sina Molavipour

Edward Markai, Sina Molavipour

Temporal Knowledge Graphs have emerged as a powerful way of not only modeling static relationships between entities but also the dynamics of how relations evolve over time. As these informational structures can be used to store information from a real-world setting, such as a news flow, predicting future graph components to a certain extent equates predicting real-world events. Most of the research in this field focuses on embedding-based methods, often leveraging convolutional neural net architectures. These solutions act as black boxes, limiting insight. In this paper, we explore an extension to an established rule-based framework, TLogic, that yields a high accuracy in combination with explainable predictions. This offers transparency and allows the end-user to critically evaluate the rules applied at the end of the prediction stage. The new rule format incorporates entity category as a key component with the purpose of limiting rule application only to relevant entities. When categories are unknown for building the graph, we propose a data-driven method to generate them with an LLM-based approach. Additionally, we investigate the choice of aggregation method for scores of retrieved entities when performing category prediction.

Sina Molavipour, Alireza M. Javid, Cassie Ye et al.

Robust yield curve estimation is crucial in fixed-income markets for accurate instrument pricing, effective risk management, and informed trading strategies. Traditional approaches, including the bootstrapping method and parametric Nelson-Siegel models, often struggle with overfitting or instability issues, especially when underlying bonds are sparse, bond prices are volatile, or contain hard-to-remove noise. In this paper, we propose a neural networkbased framework for robust yield curve estimation tailored to small mortgage bond markets. Our model estimates the yield curve independently for each day and introduces a new loss function to enforce smoothness and stability, addressing challenges associated with limited and noisy data. Empirical results on Swedish mortgage bonds demonstrate that our approach delivers more robust and stable yield curve estimates compared to existing methods such as Nelson-Siegel-Svensson (NSS) and Kernel-Ridge (KR). Furthermore, the framework allows for the integration of domain-specific constraints, such as alignment with risk-free benchmarks, enabling practitioners to balance the trade-off between smoothness and accuracy according to their needs.

Sina Molavipour, Germán Bassi, Mikael Skoglund

The estimation of mutual information (MI) or conditional mutual information (CMI) from a set of samples is a long-standing problem. A recent line of work in this area has leveraged the approximation power of artificial neural networks and has shown improvements over conventional methods. One important challenge in this new approach is the need to obtain, given the original dataset, a different set where the samples are distributed according to a specific product density function. This is particularly challenging when estimating CMI. In this paper, we introduce a new technique, based on k nearest neighbors (k-NN), to perform the resampling and derive high-confidence concentration bounds for the sample average. Then the technique is employed to train a neural network classifier and the CMI is estimated accordingly. We propose three estimators using this technique and prove their consistency, make a comparison between them and similar approaches in the literature, and experimentally show improvements in estimating the CMI in terms of accuracy and variance of the estimators.

Sina Molavipour, Germán Bassi, Mikael Skoglund

Several recent works in communication systems have proposed to leverage the power of neural networks in the design of encoders and decoders. In this approach, these blocks can be tailored to maximize the transmission rate based on aggregated samples from the channel. Motivated by the fact that, in many communication schemes, the achievable transmission rate is determined by a conditional mutual information term, this paper focuses on neural-based estimators for this information-theoretic quantity. Our results are based on variational bounds for the KL-divergence and, in contrast to some previous works, we provide a mathematically rigorous lower bound. However, additional challenges with respect to the unconditional mutual information emerge due to the presence of a conditional density function which we address here.