Lorenzo Zambon

Lorenzo Zambon, Dario Azzimonti, Giorgio Corani

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is called reconciliation, which adjusts the base forecasts computed for each time series. However, recent works on probabilistic reconciliation present several limitations. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on conditioning to reconcile any type of forecast distribution. We then introduce a new algorithm, called Bottom-Up Importance Sampling, to efficiently sample from the reconciled distribution. It can be used for any base forecast distribution: discrete, continuous, or in the form of samples, providing a major speedup compared to the current methods. Experiments on several temporal hierarchies show a significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts.

Giorgio Corani, Stefano Damato, Dario Azzimonti et al.

We consider the problem of model selection between probabilistic models on data sets of time series. Chosen a proper scoring rule, we denote by the term \textit{score} the average value of the scoring rule on the test of an individual time series. For model selection, we need aggregating the values of the scores across multiple time series. Three summary statistics are commonly used for model selection: mean score, median score, and mean rank. Results in previous papers show that these statistics can yield conflicting decisions; we show how the conflicting conclusions are due to the skewness of the distribution of scores. We also show that as the test set of each time series of the data set increases, the different model selection criteria progressively converge to the same conclusion. However, for short tests sets, only the mean score identifies the true model as the best. We illustrate these phenomena with an analysis on intermittent time series, including the data set of the M5 competition, where we underline the importance of having a large test set. In such experiments, we further notice that model selection based on mean ranks remains unchanged using different scaling factors.

Auricchio Gennaro, Codegoni Andrea, Gualandi Stefano et al.

In this paper, we propose the Fourier Discrepancy Function, a new discrepancy to compare discrete probability measures. We show that this discrepancy takes into account the geometry of the underlying space. We prove that the Fourier Discrepancy is convex, twice differentiable, and that its gradient has an explicit formula. We also provide a compelling statistical interpretation. Finally, we study the lower and upper tight bounds for the Fourier Discrepancy in terms of the Total Variation distance.