Tian Guo

Tian Guo, Emmanuel Hauptmann

Large language models (LLMs) and their fine-tuning techniques have demonstrated superior performance in various language understanding and generation tasks. This paper explores fine-tuning LLMs for stock return forecasting with financial newsflow. In quantitative investing, return forecasting is fundamental for subsequent tasks like stock picking, portfolio optimization, etc. We formulate the model to include text representation and forecasting modules. We propose to compare the encoder-only and decoder-only LLMs, considering they generate text representations in distinct ways. The impact of these different representations on forecasting performance remains an open question. Meanwhile, we compare two simple methods of integrating LLMs' token-level representations into the forecasting module. The experiments on real news and investment universes reveal that: (1) aggregated representations from LLMs' token-level embeddings generally produce return predictions that enhance the performance of long-only and long-short portfolios; (2) in the relatively large investment universe, the decoder LLMs-based prediction model leads to stronger portfolios, whereas in the small universes, there are no consistent winners. Among the three LLMs studied (DeBERTa, Mistral, Llama), Mistral performs more robustly across different universes; (3) return predictions derived from LLMs' text representations are a strong signal for portfolio construction, outperforming conventional sentiment scores.

Tian Guo, Emmanuel Hauptmann

In quantitative investing, return prediction supports various tasks, including stock selection, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Quantitative factors, such as valuation, quality, and growth, capture various characteristics of stocks. Unstructured financial data, like news and transcripts, has attracted growing attention, driven by recent advances in large language models (LLMs). This paper examines effective methods for leveraging multimodal factors and newsflow in return prediction and stock selection. First, we introduce a fusion learning framework to learn a unified representation from factors and newsflow representations generated by an LLM. Within this framework, we compare three representative methods: representation combination, representation summation, and attentive representations. Next, building on empirical observations from fusion learning, we explore the mixture model that adaptively combines predictions made by single modalities and their fusion. To mitigate the training instability observed in the mixture model, we introduce a decoupled training approach with theoretical insights. Finally, our experiments on real investment universes yield several insights into effective multimodal modeling of factors and news for stock return prediction and selection.

Tian Guo, Nicolas Jamet, Valentin Betrix et al.

Incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into systematic investments has drawn numerous attention recently. In this paper, we focus on the ESG events in financial news flow and exploring the predictive power of ESG related financial news on stock volatility. In particular, we develop a pipeline of ESG news extraction, news representations, and Bayesian inference of deep learning models. Experimental evaluation on real data and different markets demonstrates the superior predicting performance as well as the relation of high volatility prediction to stocks with potential high risk and low return. It also shows the prospect of the proposed pipeline as a flexible predicting framework for various textual data and target variables.

Tian Guo, Tao Lin, Nino Antulov-Fantulin

For recurrent neural networks trained on time series with target and exogenous variables, in addition to accurate prediction, it is also desired to provide interpretable insights into the data. In this paper, we explore the structure of LSTM recurrent neural networks to learn variable-wise hidden states, with the aim to capture different dynamics in multi-variable time series and distinguish the contribution of variables to the prediction. With these variable-wise hidden states, a mixture attention mechanism is proposed to model the generative process of the target. Then we develop associated training methods to jointly learn network parameters, variable and temporal importance w.r.t the prediction of the target variable. Extensive experiments on real datasets demonstrate enhanced prediction performance by capturing the dynamics of different variables. Meanwhile, we evaluate the interpretation results both qualitatively and quantitatively. It exhibits the prospect as an end-to-end framework for both forecasting and knowledge extraction over multi-variable data.

Thorben Funke, Tian Guo, Alen Lancic et al.

We propose a novel node embedding of directed graphs to statistical manifolds, which is based on a global minimization of pairwise relative entropy and graph geodesics in a non-linear way. Each node is encoded with a probability density function over a measurable space. Furthermore, we analyze the connection between the geometrical properties of such embedding and their efficient learning procedure. Extensive experiments show that our proposed embedding is better in preserving the global geodesic information of graphs, as well as outperforming existing embedding models on directed graphs in a variety of evaluation metrics, in an unsupervised setting.

Tian Guo, Tao Lin

In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To this end, the multi-variable LSTM equipped with tensorized hidden states is developed to learn hidden states for individual variables, which give rise to our mixture temporal and variable attention. Based on such attention mechanism, we infer and quantify variable importance. Extensive experiments using real datasets with Granger-causality test and the synthetic dataset with ground truth demonstrate the prediction performance and interpretability of multi-variable LSTM in comparison to a variety of baselines. It exhibits the prospect of multi-variable LSTM as an end-to-end framework for both forecasting and knowledge discovery.

Tian Guo, Tao Lin, Yao Lu

In this paper, we propose an interpretable LSTM recurrent neural network, i.e., multi-variable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables. Currently, widely used attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To this end, our multi-variable LSTM equipped with tensorized hidden states is developed to learn variable specific representations, which give rise to both temporal and variable level attention. Preliminary experiments demonstrate comparable prediction performance of multi-variable LSTM w.r.t. encoder-decoder based baselines. More interestingly, variable importance in real datasets characterized by the variable attention is highly in line with that determined by statistical Granger causality test, which exhibits the prospect of multi-variable LSTM as a simple and uniform end-to-end framework for both forecasting and knowledge discovery.

Tian Guo, Albert Bifet, Nino Antulov-Fantulin

In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest Bitcoin digital trading offices in 2016 and 2017 as well as order information. Experiments are performed to evaluate a variety of statistical and machine learning approaches.

Vaibhav Krishna, Tian Guo, Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Matrix factorization techniques have been widely used as a method for collaborative filtering for recommender systems. In recent times, different variants of deep learning algorithms have been explored in this setting to improve the task of making a personalized recommendation with user-item interaction data. The idea that the mapping between the latent user or item factors and the original features is highly nonlinear suggest that classical matrix factorization techniques are no longer sufficient. In this paper, we propose a multilayer nonlinear semi-nonnegative matrix factorization method, with the motivation that user-item interactions can be modeled more accurately using a linear combination of non-linear item features. Firstly, we learn latent factors for representations of users and items from the designed multilayer nonlinear Semi-NMF approach using explicit ratings. Secondly, the architecture built is compared with deep-learning algorithms like Restricted Boltzmann Machine and state-of-the-art Deep Matrix factorization techniques. By using both supervised rate prediction task and unsupervised clustering in latent item space, we demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves better generalization ability in prediction as well as comparable representation ability as deep matrix factorization in the clustering task.