Fredrik D. Johansson

Sofia Ek, Dave Zachariah, Fredrik D. Johansson et al.

We consider the problem of evaluating the performance of a decision policy using past observational data. The outcome of a policy is measured in terms of a loss (aka. disutility or negative reward) and the main problem is making valid inferences about its out-of-sample loss when the past data was observed under a different and possibly unknown policy. Using a sample-splitting method, we show that it is possible to draw such inferences with finite-sample coverage guarantees about the entire loss distribution, rather than just its mean. Importantly, the method takes into account model misspecifications of the past policy - including unmeasured confounding. The evaluation method can be used to certify the performance of a policy using observational data under a specified range of credible model assumptions.

Lena Stempfle, Ashkan Panahi, Fredrik D. Johansson

Missing values are unavoidable in many applications of machine learning and present challenges both during training and at test time. When variables are missing in recurring patterns, fitting separate pattern submodels have been proposed as a solution. However, fitting models independently does not make efficient use of all available data. Conversely, fitting a single shared model to the full data set relies on imputation which often leads to biased results when missingness depends on unobserved factors. We propose an alternative approach, called sharing pattern submodels, which i) makes predictions that are robust to missing values at test time, ii) maintains or improves the predictive power of pattern submodels, and iii) has a short description, enabling improved interpretability. Parameter sharing is enforced through sparsity-inducing regularization which we prove leads to consistent estimation. Finally, we give conditions for when a sharing model is optimal, even when both missingness and the target outcome depend on unobserved variables. Classification and regression experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate that our models achieve a favorable tradeoff between pattern specialization and information sharing.

Adam Breitholtz, Anton Matsson, Fredrik D. Johansson

Successful unsupervised domain adaptation is guaranteed only under strong assumptions such as covariate shift and overlap between input domains. The latter is often violated in high-dimensional applications like image classification which, despite this limitation, continues to serve as inspiration and benchmark for algorithm development. In this work, we show that training-time access to side information in the form of auxiliary variables can help relax restrictions on input variables and increase the sample efficiency of learning at the cost of collecting a richer variable set. As this information is assumed available only during training, not in deployment, we call this problem unsupervised domain adaptation by learning using privileged information (DALUPI). To solve this problem, we propose a simple two-stage learning algorithm, inspired by our analysis of the expected error in the target domain, and a practical end-to-end variant for image classification. We propose three evaluation tasks based on classification of entities in photos and anomalies in medical images with different types of available privileged information (binary attributes and single or multiple regions of interest). We demonstrate across these tasks that using privileged information in learning can reduce errors in domain transfer compared to baselines, be robust to spurious correlations in the source domain, and increase sample efficiency.

Adam Breitholtz, Fredrik D. Johansson

Understanding generalization is crucial to confidently engineer and deploy machine learning models, especially when deployment implies a shift in the data domain. For such domain adaptation problems, we seek generalization bounds which are tractably computable and tight. If these desiderata can be reached, the bounds can serve as guarantees for adequate performance in deployment. However, in applications where deep neural networks are the models of choice, deriving results which fulfill these remains an unresolved challenge; most existing bounds are either vacuous or has non-estimable terms, even in favorable conditions. In this work, we evaluate existing bounds from the literature with potential to satisfy our desiderata on domain adaptation image classification tasks, where deep neural networks are preferred. We find that all bounds are vacuous and that sample generalization terms account for much of the observed looseness, especially when these terms interact with measures of domain shift. To overcome this and arrive at the tightest possible results, we combine each bound with recent data-dependent PAC-Bayes analysis, greatly improving the guarantees. We find that, when domain overlap can be assumed, a simple importance weighting extension of previous work provides the tightest estimable bound. Finally, we study which terms dominate the bounds and identify possible directions for further improvement.

Alessandro-Umberto Margueritte, Ahmet Zahid Balcıoğlu, Jesse Krijthe et al.

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an experiment using the surrogate is predictive of the result of a hypothetical study using the real outcome. Much attention has been paid to formalizing this property in causal terms, but most criteria are unidentifiable and cannot be turned into practical algorithms for learning surrogate endpoints from data. To address this, we study plug-in composite surrogates, functions of post-treatment variables that may be substituted directly for the primary outcome in a randomized experiment. We propose two methods for learning plug-in surrogates that maximize effect predictiveness, and characterize the possibility of finding endpoints that yield unbiased effect estimates in representative scenarios. Finally, in both synthetic experiments with known effects and in data from a real-world experiment, we find that our method, based on directly modeling the surrogate effect, returns plug-in endpoints more predictive of the primary effect than established methods.

Lena Stempfle, Fredrik D. Johansson

Rule models are often preferred in prediction tasks with tabular inputs as they can be easily interpreted using natural language and provide predictive performance on par with more complex models. However, most rule models' predictions are undefined or ambiguous when some inputs are missing, forcing users to rely on statistical imputation models or heuristics like zero imputation, undermining the interpretability of the models. In this work, we propose fitting concise yet precise rule models that learn to avoid relying on features with missing values and, therefore, limit their reliance on imputation at test time. We develop MINTY, a method that learns rules in the form of disjunctions between variables that act as replacements for each other when one or more is missing. This results in a sparse linear rule model, regularized to have small dependence on features with missing values, that allows a trade-off between goodness of fit, interpretability, and robustness to missing values at test time. We demonstrate the value of MINTY in experiments using synthetic and real-world data sets and find its predictive performance comparable or favorable to baselines, with smaller reliance on features with missing values.

Emil Carlsson, Newton Mwai, Fredrik D. Johansson

Bandit algorithms solve diverse sequential decision-making problems, but are often too sample-inefficient for from-scratch personalization. To substantially reduce exploration times, latent bandit algorithms exploit cross-instance structure implied by discrete latent states, provided that the posterior distribution of rewards and latent states is known and accurate. However, obtaining an accurate model of this structure is difficult, and a small number of latent states may be insufficient to characterize the reward distributions in all problem instances. We propose latent order bandits (LOB), relaxing the assumptions of latent bandits to require only prior knowledge of a partial order of action preferences in each state. This allows instances of the same state to vary in reward distributions, as long as the partial order of actions is shared. For example, groups of users on a streaming service may agree on which movie genres are the best but rate experiences on different scales. We give an upper-confidence bound procedure for the LOB problem, applicable to both total and partial latent orders, and give an upper bound on its regret. To improve empirical performance, we propose a posterior-sampling algorithm and show, in a suite of experiments, that both are competitive with full-prior latent bandits when same-state instances share reward parameters, and preferable to them when reward scales differ between instances with the same latent state.

Ahmet Zahid Balcıoğlu, Newton Mwai, Emil Carlsson et al.

Sequential decision-making algorithms such as multi-armed bandits can find optimal personalized decisions, but are notoriously sample-hungry. In personalized medicine, for example, training a bandit from scratch for every patient is typically infeasible, as the number of trials required is much larger than the number of decision points for a single patient. To combat this, latent bandits offer rapid exploration and personalization beyond what context variables alone can offer, provided that a latent variable model of problem instances can be learned consistently. However, existing works give no guidance as to how such a model can be found. In this work, we propose an identifiable latent bandit framework that leads to optimal decision-making with a shorter exploration time than classical bandits by learning from historical records of decisions and outcomes. Our method is based on nonlinear independent component analysis that provably identifies representations from observational data sufficient to infer optimal actions in new bandit instances. We verify this strategy in simulated and semi-synthetic environments, showing substantial improvement over online and offline learning baselines when identifying conditions are satisfied.

Edvin Listo Zec, Adam Breitholtz, Fredrik D. Johansson

Federated learning enables multiple actors to collaboratively train models without sharing private data. Existing algorithms are successful and well-justified in this task when the intended target domain, where the trained model will be used, shares data distribution with the aggregate of clients, but this is often violated in practice. A common reason is label shift -- that the label distributions differ between clients and the target domain. We demonstrate empirically that this can significantly degrade performance. To address this problem, we propose FedPALS, a principled and practical model aggregation scheme that adapts to label shifts to improve performance in the target domain by leveraging knowledge of label distributions at the central server. Our approach ensures unbiased updates under federated stochastic gradient descent which yields robust generalization across clients with diverse, label-shifted data. Extensive experiments on image classification tasks demonstrate that FedPALS consistently outperforms baselines by aligning model aggregation with the target domain. Our findings reveal that conventional federated learning methods suffer severely in cases of extreme label sparsity on clients, highlighting the critical need for target-aware aggregation as offered by FedPALS.

Lena Stempfle, Arthur James, Julie Josse et al.

Inherently interpretable machine learning (IML) models offer valuable support for clinical decision-making but face challenges when features contain missing values. Traditional approaches, such as imputation or discarding incomplete records, are often impractical in scenarios where data is missing at test time. We surveyed 55 clinicians from 29 French trauma centers, collecting 20 complete responses to study their interaction with three IML models in a real-world clinical setting for predicting hemorrhagic shock with missing values. Our findings reveal that while clinicians recognize the value of interpretability and are familiar with common IML approaches, traditional imputation techniques often conflict with their intuition. Instead of imputing unobserved values, they rely on observed features combined with medical intuition and experience. As a result, methods that natively handle missing values are preferred. These findings underscore the need to integrate clinical reasoning into future IML models to enhance human-computer interaction.

Herman Bergström, Emil Carlsson, Devdatt Dubhashi et al.

Learning an ordering of items based on pairwise comparisons is useful when items are difficult to rate consistently on an absolute scale, for example, when annotators have to make subjective assessments. When exhaustive comparison is infeasible, actively sampling item pairs can reduce the number of annotations necessary for learning an accurate ordering. However, many algorithms ignore shared structure between items, limiting their sample efficiency and precluding generalization to new items. It is also common to disregard how noise in comparisons varies between item pairs, despite it being informative of item similarity. In this work, we study active preference learning for ordering items with contextual attributes, both in- and out-of-sample. We give an upper bound on the expected ordering error of a logistic preference model as a function of which items have been compared. Next, we propose an active learning strategy that samples items to minimize this bound by accounting for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in comparisons. We evaluate the resulting algorithm, and a variant aimed at reducing model misspecification, in multiple realistic ordering tasks with comparisons made by human annotators. Our results demonstrate superior sample efficiency and generalization compared to non-contextual ranking approaches and active preference learning baselines.

Herman Bergström, Zhongqi Yue, Fredrik D. Johansson

Medical images used to train machine learning models are often accompanied by radiology reports containing rich expert annotations. However, relying on these reports as inputs for clinical prediction requires the timely manual work of a trained radiologist. This raises a natural question: when can radiology reports be leveraged during training to improve image-only classification? Prior works are limited to evaluating pre-trained image representations by fine-tuning them to predict diagnostic labels, often extracted from reports, ignoring tasks with labels that are weakly associated with the text. To address this gap, we conduct a systematic study of how radiology reports can be used during both pre-training and fine-tuning, across diagnostic and prognostic tasks (e.g., 12-month readmission), and under varying training set sizes. Our findings reveal that: (1) Leveraging reports during pre-training is beneficial for downstream classification tasks where the label is well-represented in the text; however, pre-training through explicit image-text alignment can be detrimental in settings where it's not; (2) Fine-tuning with reports can lead to significant improvements and even have a larger impact than the pre-training method in certain settings. These results provide actionable insights into when and how to leverage privileged text data to train medical image classifiers while highlighting gaps in current research.

Zhongqi Yue, Weishi Wang, Yundaichuan Zhan et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are powerful reasoners in natural language, but their actions are typically confined to outputting vocabulary tokens. As a result, interactions with external environments -- such as symbolic operators or simulators -- must be expressed through text in predefined formats, parsed, and routed to external interfaces. This overloads the model's language with both reasoning and control duties, and requires a hand-crafted parser, external to the LLM. To address this, we decouple environment interactions from language by internalizing them in an Expanded Action space (ExpA), beyond the vocabulary. The model starts reasoning in the default language environment, but may trigger routing actions and switch to an external environment at any time. From there, the model can only invoke environment-specific actions, receive feedback from the environment, and potentially route back to language as a result. To promote effective exploration of the expanded action space and new environments, we introduce ExpA Reinforcement Learning (EARL) with counterfactual policy optimization. On tasks requiring multi-turn interactions and contingent planning, EARL outperforms strong baselines with vocabulary-constrained actions. It performs robustly across calculator-based multi-task learning and, in the partially observed sorting problem, achieves perfect Sort-4 accuracy while self-discovering an efficient algorithm competitive with classical designs.

Adam Breitholtz, Edvin Listo Zec, Fredrik D. Johansson

Although common in real-world applications, heterogeneous client label sets are rarely investigated in federated learning (FL). Furthermore, in the cases they are, clients are assumed to be willing to share their entire label sets with other clients. Federated learning with private label sets, shared only with the central server, adds further constraints on learning algorithms and is, in general, a more difficult problem to solve. In this work, we study the effects of label set heterogeneity on model performance, comparing the public and private label settings -- when the union of label sets in the federation is known to clients and when it is not. We apply classical methods for the classifier combination problem to FL using centralized tuning, adapt common FL methods to the private label set setting, and discuss the justification of both approaches under practical assumptions. Our experiments show that reducing the number of labels available to each client harms the performance of all methods substantially. Centralized tuning of client models for representational alignment can help remedy this, but often at the cost of higher variance. Throughout, our proposed adaptations of standard FL methods perform well, showing similar performance in the private label setting as the standard methods achieve in the public setting. This shows that clients can enjoy increased privacy at little cost to model accuracy.

Newton Mwai, Emil Carlsson, Fredrik D. Johansson

Bandit algorithms are guaranteed to solve diverse sequential decision-making problems, provided that a sufficient exploration budget is available. However, learning from scratch is often too costly for personalization tasks where a single individual faces only a small number of decision points. Latent bandits offer substantially reduced exploration times for such problems, given that the joint distribution of a latent state and the rewards of actions is known and accurate. In practice, finding such a model is non-trivial, and there may not exist a small number of latent states that explain the responses of all individuals. For example, patients with similar latent conditions may have the same preference in treatments but rate their symptoms on different scales. With this in mind, we propose relaxing the assumptions of latent bandits to require only a model of the \emph{preference ordering} of actions in each latent state. This allows problem instances with the same latent state to vary in their reward distributions, as long as their preference orderings are equal. We give a posterior-sampling algorithm for this problem and demonstrate that its empirical performance is competitive with latent bandits that have full knowledge of the reward distribution when this is well-specified, and outperforms them when reward scales differ between instances with the same latent state.

Anton Matsson, Yaochen Rao, Heather J. Litman et al.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) holds great promise for deriving optimal policies from observational data, but challenges related to interpretability and evaluation limit its practical use in safety-critical domains. Interpretability is hindered by the black-box nature of unconstrained RL policies, while evaluation -- typically performed off-policy -- is sensitive to large deviations from the data-collecting behavior policy, especially when using methods based on importance sampling. To address these challenges, we propose a simple yet practical alternative: deriving treatment policies from the most frequently chosen actions in each patient state, as estimated by an interpretable model of the behavior policy. By using a tree-based model, which is specifically designed to exploit patterns in the data, we obtain a natural grouping of states with respect to treatment. The tree structure ensures interpretability by design, while varying the number of actions considered controls the degree of overlap with the behavior policy, enabling reliable off-policy evaluation. This pragmatic approach to policy development standardizes frequent treatment patterns, capturing the collective clinical judgment embedded in the data. Using real-world examples in rheumatoid arthritis and sepsis care, we demonstrate that policies derived under this framework can outperform current practice, offering interpretable alternatives to those obtained via offline RL.

Lena Stempfle, Anton Matsson, Newton Mwai et al.

Handling missing values at test time is challenging for machine learning models, especially when aiming for both high accuracy and interpretability. Established approaches often add bias through imputation or excessive model complexity via missingness indicators. Moreover, either method can obscure interpretability, making it harder to understand how the model utilizes the observed variables in predictions. We propose missingness-avoiding (MA) machine learning, a general framework for training models to rarely require the values of missing (or imputed) features at test time. We create tailored MA learning algorithms for decision trees, tree ensembles, and sparse linear models by incorporating classifier-specific regularization terms in their learning objectives. The tree-based models leverage contextual missingness by reducing reliance on missing values based on the observed context. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that MA-DT, MA-LASSO, MA-RF, and MA-GBT effectively reduce the reliance on features with missing values while maintaining predictive performance competitive with their unregularized counterparts. This shows that our framework gives practitioners a powerful tool to maintain interpretability in predictions with test-time missing values.

Anton Matsson, Lena Stempfle, Yaochen Rao et al.

Modeling policies for sequential clinical decision-making based on observational data is useful for describing treatment practices, standardizing frequent patterns in treatment, and evaluating alternative policies. For each task, it is essential that the policy model is interpretable. Learning accurate models requires effectively capturing the state of a patient, either through sequence representation learning or carefully crafted summaries of their medical history. While recent work has favored the former, it remains a question as to how histories should best be represented for interpretable policy modeling. Focused on model fit, we systematically compare diverse approaches to summarizing patient history for interpretable modeling of clinical policies across four sequential decision-making tasks. We illustrate differences in the policies learned using various representations by breaking down evaluations by patient subgroups, critical states, and stages of treatment, highlighting challenges specific to common use cases. We find that interpretable sequence models using learned representations perform on par with black-box models across all tasks. Interpretable models using hand-crafted representations perform substantially worse when ignoring history entirely, but are made competitive by incorporating only a few aggregated and recent elements of patient history. The added benefits of using a richer representation are pronounced for subgroups and in specific use cases. This underscores the importance of evaluating policy models in the context of their intended use.

Emil Carlsson, Debabrota Basu, Fredrik D. Johansson et al.

We address the problem of identifying the optimal policy with a fixed confidence level in a multi-armed bandit setup, when \emph{the arms are subject to linear constraints}. Unlike the standard best-arm identification problem which is well studied, the optimal policy in this case may not be deterministic and could mix between several arms. This changes the geometry of the problem which we characterize via an information-theoretic lower bound. We introduce two asymptotically optimal algorithms for this setting, one based on the Track-and-Stop method and the other based on a game-theoretic approach. Both these algorithms try to track an optimal allocation based on the lower bound and computed by a weighted projection onto the boundary of a normal cone. Finally, we provide empirical results that validate our bounds and visualize how constraints change the hardness of the problem.

Anton Matsson, Fredrik D. Johansson

Importance sampling (IS) is often used to perform off-policy policy evaluation but is prone to several issues, especially when the behavior policy is unknown and must be estimated from data. Significant differences between the target and behavior policies can result in uncertain value estimates due to, for example, high variance and non-evaluated actions. If the behavior policy is estimated using black-box models, it can be hard to diagnose potential problems and to determine for which inputs the policies differ in their suggested actions and resulting values. To address this, we propose estimating the behavior policy for IS using prototype learning. We apply this approach in the evaluation of policies for sepsis treatment, demonstrating how the prototypes give a condensed summary of differences between the target and behavior policies while retaining an accuracy comparable to baseline estimators. We also describe estimated values in terms of the prototypes to better understand which parts of the target policies have the most impact on the estimates. Using a simulator, we study the bias resulting from restricting models to use prototypes.

Newton Mwai Kinyanjui, Fredrik D. Johansson

Simulators make unique benchmarks for causal effect estimation since they do not rely on unverifiable assumptions or the ability to intervene on real-world systems, but are often too simple to capture important aspects of real applications. We propose a simulator of Alzheimer's disease aimed at modeling intricacies of healthcare data while enabling benchmarking of causal effect and policy estimators. We fit the system to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and ground hand-crafted components in results from comparative treatment trials and observational treatment patterns. The simulator includes parameters which alter the nature and difficulty of the causal inference tasks, such as latent variables, effect heterogeneity, length of observed history, behavior policy and sample size. We use the simulator to compare estimators of average and conditional treatment effects.

Rickard K. A. Karlsson, Martin Willbo, Zeshan Hussain et al.

We study prediction of future outcomes with supervised models that use privileged information during learning. The privileged information comprises samples of time series observed between the baseline time of prediction and the future outcome; this information is only available at training time which differs from the traditional supervised learning. Our question is when using this privileged data leads to more sample-efficient learning of models that use only baseline data for predictions at test time. We give an algorithm for this setting and prove that when the time series are drawn from a non-stationary Gaussian-linear dynamical system of fixed horizon, learning with privileged information is more efficient than learning without it. On synthetic data, we test the limits of our algorithm and theory, both when our assumptions hold and when they are violated. On three diverse real-world datasets, we show that our approach is generally preferable to classical learning, particularly when data is scarce. Finally, we relate our estimator to a distillation approach both theoretically and empirically.

Emil Carlsson, Devdatt Dubhashi, Fredrik D. Johansson

We propose algorithms based on a multi-level Thompson sampling scheme, for the stochastic multi-armed bandit and its contextual variant with linear expected rewards, in the setting where arms are clustered. We show, both theoretically and empirically, how exploiting a given cluster structure can significantly improve the regret and computational cost compared to using standard Thompson sampling. In the case of the stochastic multi-armed bandit we give upper bounds on the expected cumulative regret showing how it depends on the quality of the clustering. Finally, we perform an empirical evaluation showing that our algorithms perform well compared to previously proposed algorithms for bandits with clustered arms.

Emil Carlsson, Devdatt Dubhashi, Fredrik D. Johansson

Recent work (Xu et al., 2020) has suggested that numeral systems in different languages are shaped by a functional need for efficient communication in an information-theoretic sense. Here we take a learning-theoretic approach and show how efficient communication emerges via reinforcement learning. In our framework, two artificial agents play a Lewis signaling game where the goal is to convey a numeral concept. The agents gradually learn to communicate using reinforcement learning and the resulting numeral systems are shown to be efficient in the information-theoretic framework of Regier et al. (2015); Gibson et al. (2017). They are also shown to be similar to human numeral systems of same type. Our results thus provide a mechanistic explanation via reinforcement learning of the recent results in Xu et al. (2020) and can potentially be generalized to other semantic domains.

Samuel Håkansson, Viktor Lindblom, Omer Gottesman et al.

Finding an effective medical treatment often requires a search by trial and error. Making this search more efficient by minimizing the number of unnecessary trials could lower both costs and patient suffering. We formalize this problem as learning a policy for finding a near-optimal treatment in a minimum number of trials using a causal inference framework. We give a model-based dynamic programming algorithm which learns from observational data while being robust to unmeasured confounding. To reduce time complexity, we suggest a greedy algorithm which bounds the near-optimality constraint. The methods are evaluated on synthetic and real-world healthcare data and compared to model-free reinforcement learning. We find that our methods compare favorably to the model-free baseline while offering a more transparent trade-off between search time and treatment efficacy.

Fredrik D. Johansson, Uri Shalit, Nathan Kallus et al.

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level causal effects, such as a single patient's response to alternative medication, from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated effects based on distance measures between groups receiving different treatments, allowing for sample re-weighting. We provide conditions under which our bound is tight and show how it relates to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise representation learning algorithms that minimize our bound, by regularizing the representation's induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. We extend these algorithms to simultaneously learn a weighted representation to further reduce treatment group distances. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme.

Maggie Makar, Fredrik D. Johansson, John Guttag et al.

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of upper and lower bounds on the potential outcomes of decision alternatives to assess risks and benefits. We show that, in such cases, we can improve sample efficiency by estimating simple functions that bound these outcomes instead of estimating their conditional expectations, which may be complex and hard to estimate. Our analysis highlights a trade-off between the complexity of the learning task and the confidence with which the learned bounds hold. Guided by these findings, we develop an algorithm for learning upper and lower bounds on potential outcomes which optimize an objective function defined by the decision maker, subject to the probability that bounds are violated being small. Using a clinical dataset and a well-known causality benchmark, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms baselines, providing tighter, more reliable bounds.

Michael Oberst, Fredrik D. Johansson, Dennis Wei et al.

Overlap between treatment groups is required for non-parametric estimation of causal effects. If a subgroup of subjects always receives the same intervention, we cannot estimate the effect of intervention changes on that subgroup without further assumptions. When overlap does not hold globally, characterizing local regions of overlap can inform the relevance of causal conclusions for new subjects, and can help guide additional data collection. To have impact, these descriptions must be interpretable for downstream users who are not machine learning experts, such as policy makers. We formalize overlap estimation as a problem of finding minimum volume sets subject to coverage constraints and reduce this problem to binary classification with Boolean rule classifiers. We then generalize this method to estimate overlap in off-policy policy evaluation. In several real-world applications, we demonstrate that these rules have comparable accuracy to black-box estimators and provide intuitive and informative explanations that can inform policy making.

Nils M. Kriege, Fredrik D. Johansson, Christopher Morris

Graph kernels have become an established and widely-used technique for solving classification tasks on graphs. This survey gives a comprehensive overview of techniques for kernel-based graph classification developed in the past 15 years. We describe and categorize graph kernels based on properties inherent to their design, such as the nature of their extracted graph features, their method of computation and their applicability to problems in practice. In an extensive experimental evaluation, we study the classification accuracy of a large suite of graph kernels on established benchmarks as well as new datasets. We compare the performance of popular kernels with several baseline methods and study the effect of applying a Gaussian RBF kernel to the metric induced by a graph kernel. In doing so, we find that simple baselines become competitive after this transformation on some datasets. Moreover, we study the extent to which existing graph kernels agree in their predictions (and prediction errors) and obtain a data-driven categorization of kernels as result. Finally, based on our experimental results, we derive a practitioner's guide to kernel-based graph classification.

Fredrik D. Johansson, David Sontag, Rajesh Ranganath

Learning domain-invariant representations has become a popular approach to unsupervised domain adaptation and is often justified by invoking a particular suite of theoretical results. We argue that there are two significant flaws in such arguments. First, the results in question hold only for a fixed representation and do not account for information lost in non-invertible transformations. Second, domain invariance is often a far too strict requirement and does not always lead to consistent estimation, even under strong and favorable assumptions. In this work, we give generalization bounds for unsupervised domain adaptation that hold for any representation function by acknowledging the cost of non-invertibility. In addition, we show that penalizing distance between densities is often wasteful and propose a bound based on measuring the extent to which the support of the source domain covers the target domain. We perform experiments on well-known benchmarks that illustrate the short-comings of current standard practice.

Fredrik D. Johansson

We study heterogeneity in the effect of a mindset intervention on student-level performance through an observational dataset from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM). Our analysis uses machine learning (ML) to address the following associated problems: assessing treatment group overlap and covariate balance, imputing conditional average treatment effects, and interpreting imputed effects. By comparing several different model families we illustrate the flexibility of both off-the-shelf and purpose-built estimators. We find that the mindset intervention has a positive average effect of 0.26, 95%-CI [0.22, 0.30], and that heterogeneity in the range of [0.1, 0.4] is moderated by school-level achievement level, poverty concentration, urbanicity, and student prior expectations.

Irene Chen, Fredrik D. Johansson, David Sontag

Recent attempts to achieve fairness in predictive models focus on the balance between fairness and accuracy. In sensitive applications such as healthcare or criminal justice, this trade-off is often undesirable as any increase in prediction error could have devastating consequences. In this work, we argue that the fairness of predictions should be evaluated in context of the data, and that unfairness induced by inadequate samples sizes or unmeasured predictive variables should be addressed through data collection, rather than by constraining the model. We decompose cost-based metrics of discrimination into bias, variance, and noise, and propose actions aimed at estimating and reducing each term. Finally, we perform case-studies on prediction of income, mortality, and review ratings, confirming the value of this analysis. We find that data collection is often a means to reduce discrimination without sacrificing accuracy.

Fredrik D. Johansson, Nathan Kallus, Uri Shalit et al.

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from observational data and in unsupervised domain adaptation. We pose both of these problems as prediction under a shift in design. Popular methods for overcoming distributional shift make unrealistic assumptions such as having a well-specified model or knowing the policy that gave rise to the observed data. Other methods are hindered by their need for a pre-specified metric for comparing observations, or by poor asymptotic properties. We devise a bound on the generalization error under design shift, incorporating both representation learning and sample re-weighting. Based on the bound, we propose an algorithmic framework that does not require any of the above assumptions and which is asymptotically consistent. We empirically study the new framework using two synthetic datasets, and demonstrate its effectiveness compared to previous methods.

Emilio Jorge, Mikael Kågebäck, Fredrik D. Johansson et al.

Acquiring your first language is an incredible feat and not easily duplicated. Learning to communicate using nothing but a few pictureless books, a corpus, would likely be impossible even for humans. Nevertheless, this is the dominating approach in most natural language processing today. As an alternative, we propose the use of situated interactions between agents as a driving force for communication, and the framework of Deep Recurrent Q-Networks for evolving a shared language grounded in the provided environment. We task the agents with interactive image search in the form of the game Guess Who?. The images from the game provide a non trivial environment for the agents to discuss and a natural grounding for the concepts they decide to encode in their communication. Our experiments show that the agents learn not only to encode physical concepts in their words, i.e. grounding, but also that the agents learn to hold a multi-step dialogue remembering the state of the dialogue from step to step.

Uri Shalit, Fredrik D. Johansson, David Sontag

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision medicine. We give a new theoretical analysis and family of algorithms for predicting individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data, under the assumption known as strong ignorability. The algorithms learn a "balanced" representation such that the induced treated and control distributions look similar. We give a novel, simple and intuitive generalization-error bound showing that the expected ITE estimation error of a representation is bounded by a sum of the standard generalization-error of that representation and the distance between the treated and control distributions induced by the representation. We use Integral Probability Metrics to measure distances between distributions, deriving explicit bounds for the Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances. Experiments on real and simulated data show the new algorithms match or outperform the state-of-the-art.

Fredrik D. Johansson, Uri Shalit, David Sontag

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?". We propose a new algorithmic framework for counterfactual inference which brings together ideas from domain adaptation and representation learning. In addition to a theoretical justification, we perform an empirical comparison with previous approaches to causal inference from observational data. Our deep learning algorithm significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art.

Linus Hermansson, Fredrik D. Johansson, Osamu Watanabe

We consider the problem of classifying graphs using graph kernels. We define a new graph kernel, called the generalized shortest path kernel, based on the number and length of shortest paths between nodes. For our example classification problem, we consider the task of classifying random graphs from two well-known families, by the number of clusters they contain. We verify empirically that the generalized shortest path kernel outperforms the original shortest path kernel on a number of datasets. We give a theoretical analysis for explaining our experimental results. In particular, we estimate distributions of the expected feature vectors for the shortest path kernel and the generalized shortest path kernel, and we show some evidence explaining why our graph kernel outperforms the shortest path kernel for our graph classification problem.