Baiying Lu

Baiying Lu, Zhaohui Liang, Ryan Pontius et al.

Blood glucose forecasting models are foundational for modern diabetes management systems, as reliable short-term predictions can enable proactive interventions, support automated insulin delivery, and reduce the risk of hypo- and hyperglycemic events. From a modeling perspective, glucose forecasting poses unique challenges due to heterogeneous physiological dynamics across diabetes populations. Traditional machine learning and deep learning models have been extensively evaluated for glucose prediction, yet recent time-series foundation models (TSFMs) remain much less studied in this setting. To bridge this gap, we present GlucoFM-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark evaluating state-of-the-art TSFMs alongside supervised deep learning models for blood glucose forecasting. We assess eight representative architectures, including pre-trained TSFMs, time-series large language models, and task-specific deep learning models, across 15 publicly available diabetes-relevant datasets comprising 1,117 individuals with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, and no diabetes. Models are evaluated under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot protocols, with systematic variation in context length and prediction horizon. Across datasets, pre-trained TSFMs, especially Chronos-2 and TimesFM, show strong zero-shot and few-shot transfer, with the best zero-shot model performing within 5% of the best full-shot supervised model. Yet, when task-specific data are abundant, a lightweight LSTM remains strongest, outperforming TSFMs by 4--21% under full-shot training. Stratified analyses reveal persistent challenges in T1D cohorts and hypo-/hyperglycemic ranges, highlighting the need for evaluation beyond aggregate error metrics. Together, GlucoFM-Bench provides a standardized and reproducible foundation for evaluating, comparing, and improving foundation models for blood glucose forecasting.

Temiloluwa Prioleau, Baiying Lu, Yanjun Cui

Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are a critical part of state-of-the-art digital health technology for diabetes management. Yet, access to large high-quality datasets is creating barriers that impede development of robust AI solutions. To accelerate development of transparent, reproducible, and robust AI solutions, we present Glucose-ML, a collection of 10 publicly available diabetes datasets, released within the last 7 years (i.e., 2018 - 2025). The Glucose-ML collection comprises over 300,000 days of continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data with a total of 38 million glucose samples collected from 2500+ people across 4 countries. Participants include persons living with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, and no diabetes. To support researchers and innovators with using this rich collection of diabetes datasets, we present a comparative analysis to guide algorithm developers with data selection. Additionally, we conduct a case study for the task of blood glucose prediction - one of the most common AI tasks within the field. Through this case study, we provide a benchmark for short-term blood glucose prediction across all 10 publicly available diabetes datasets within the Glucose-ML collection. We show that the same algorithm can have significantly different prediction results when developed/evaluated with different datasets. Findings from this study are then used to inform recommendations for developing robust AI solutions within the diabetes or broader health domain. We provide direct links to each longitudinal diabetes dataset in the Glucose-ML collection and openly provide our code.

Simon A. Lee, Cyrus Tanade, Hao Zhou et al.

Wearable sensors provide abundant physiological time series, yet the principles governing their predictive utility remain unclear. We hypothesize that temporal resolution is a fundamental axis of representation learning, with different clinical and behavioral outcomes relying on structure at distinct scales. To test this resolution hypothesis, we introduce HiMAE (Hierarchical Masked Autoencoder), a self supervised framework that combines masked autoencoding with a hierarchical convolutional encoder decoder. HiMAE produces multi resolution embeddings that enable systematic evaluation of which temporal scales carry predictive signal, transforming resolution from a hyperparameter into a probe for interpretability. Across classification, regression, and generative benchmarks, HiMAE consistently outperforms state of the art foundation models that collapse scale, while being orders of magnitude smaller. HiMAE is an efficient representation learner compact enough to run entirely on watch, achieving sub millisecond inference on smartwatch class CPUs for true edge inference. Together, these contributions position HiMAE as both an efficient self supervised learning method and a discovery tool for scale sensitive structure in wearable health.