Atanu R. Sinha

Atanu R Sinha, Navita Goyal, Sunny Dhamnani et al.

Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts humans use in dealing with information and the environment, and which result in biased actions and behaviors (or, actions), unbeknownst to themselves. Biases take many forms, with cognitive biases occupying a central role that inflicts fairness, accountability, transparency, ethics, law, medicine, and discrimination. Detection of biases is considered a necessary step toward their mitigation. Herein, we focus on two cognitive biases - anchoring and recency. The recognition of cognitive bias in computer science is largely in the domain of information retrieval, and bias is identified at an aggregate level with the help of annotated data. Proposing a different direction for bias detection, we offer a principled approach along with Machine Learning to detect these two cognitive biases from Web logs of users' actions. Our individual user level detection makes it truly personalized, and does not rely on annotated data. Instead, we start with two basic principles established in cognitive psychology, use modified training of an attention network, and interpret attention weights in a novel way according to those principles, to infer and distinguish between these two biases. The personalized approach allows detection for specific users who are susceptible to these biases when performing their tasks, and can help build awareness among them so as to undertake bias mitigation.

Atanu R. Sinha, Gautam Choudhary, Mansi Agarwal et al.

When a business sells to another business (B2B), the buying business is represented by a group of individuals, termed account, who collectively decide whether to buy. The seller advertises to each individual and interacts with them, mostly by digital means. The sales cycle is long, most often over a few months. There is heterogeneity among individuals belonging to an account in seeking information and hence the seller needs to score the interest of each individual over a long horizon to decide which individuals must be reached and when. Moreover, the buy decision rests with the account and must be scored to project the likelihood of purchase, a decision that is subject to change all the way up to the actual decision, emblematic of group decision making. We score decision of the account and its individuals in a dynamic manner. Dynamic scoring allows opportunity to influence different individual members at different time points over the long horizon. The dataset contains behavior logs of each individual's communication activities with the seller; but, there are no data on consultations among individuals which result in the decision. Using neural network architecture, we propose several ways to aggregate information from individual members' activities, to predict the group's collective decision. Multiple evaluations find strong model performance.

Harshita Chopra, Atanu R. Sinha, Sunav Choudhary et al.

Users' behavioral footprints online enable firms to discover behavior-based user segments (or, segments) and deliver segment specific messages to users. Following the discovery of segments, delivery of messages to users through preferred media channels like Facebook and Google can be challenging, as only a portion of users in a behavior segment find match in a medium, and only a fraction of those matched actually see the message (exposure). Even high quality discovery becomes futile when delivery fails. Many sophisticated algorithms exist for discovering behavioral segments; however, these ignore the delivery component. The problem is compounded because (i) the discovery is performed on the behavior data space in firms' data (e.g., user clicks), while the delivery is predicated on the static data space (e.g., geo, age) as defined by media; and (ii) firms work under budget constraint. We introduce a stochastic optimization based algorithm for delivery optimized discovery of behavioral user segmentation and offer new metrics to address the joint optimization. We leverage optimization under a budget constraint for delivery combined with a learning-based component for discovery. Extensive experiments on a public dataset from Google and a proprietary dataset show the effectiveness of our approach by simultaneously improving delivery metrics, reducing budget spend and achieving strong predictive performance in discovery.

Sai Sundaresan, Harshita Chopra, Atanu R. Sinha et al.

A Large Language Model (LLM) offers versatility across domains and tasks, purportedly benefiting users with a wide variety of behaviors and preferences. We question this perception about an LLM when users have inherently subjective behaviors and preferences, as seen in their ubiquitous and idiosyncratic browsing of websites or apps. The sequential behavior logs of pages, thus generated, form something akin to each user's self-constructed "language", albeit without the structure and grammar imbued in natural languages. We ask: (i) Can a small LM represent the "language of browsing" better than a large LM? (ii) Can an LM with a single set of parameters (or, single LM) adequately capture myriad users' heterogeneous, subjective behaviors and preferences? (iii) Can a single LM with high average performance, yield low variance in performance to make alignment good at user level? We introduce clusterwise LM training, HeTLM (Heterogeneity aware Training of Language Model), appropriate for subjective behaviors. We find that (i) a small LM trained using a page-level tokenizer outperforms large pretrained or finetuned LMs; (ii) HeTLM with heterogeneous cluster specific set of parameters outperforms a single LM of the same family, controlling for the number of parameters; and (iii) a higher mean and a lower variance in generation ensues, implying improved alignment.

Arpit Narechania, Alex Endert, Atanu R Sinha

After a very long winter, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) spring is here. Or, so it seems over the last three years. AI has the potential to impact many areas of human life - personal, social, health, education, professional. In this paper, we take a closer look at the potential of AI for Enterprises, where decision-making plays a crucial and repeated role across functions, tasks, and operations. We consider Agents imbued with AI as means to increase decision-productivity of enterprises. We highlight six tenets for Agentic success in enterprises, by drawing attention to what the current, AI-Centric User paradigm misses, in the face of persistent needs of and usefulness for Enterprise Decision-Making. In underscoring a shift to User-Centric AI, we offer six tenets and promote market mechanisms for platforms, aligning the design of AI and its delivery by Agents to the cause of enterprise users.

Arpit Narechania, Alex Endert, Atanu R Sinha

The progress in generative AI has fueled AI-powered tools like co-pilots and assistants to provision better guidance, particularly during data analysis. However, research on guidance has not yet examined the perceived efficacy of the source from which guidance is offered and the impact of this source on the user's perception and usage of guidance. We ask whether users perceive all guidance sources as equal, with particular interest in three sources: (i) AI, (ii) human expert, and (iii) a group of human analysts. As a benchmark, we consider a fourth source, (iv) unattributed guidance, where guidance is provided without attribution to any source, enabling isolation of and comparison with the effects of source-specific guidance. We design a five-condition between-subjects study, with one condition for each of the four guidance sources and an additional (v) no-guidance condition, which serves as a baseline to evaluate the influence of any kind of guidance. We situate our study in a custom data preparation and analysis tool wherein we task users to select relevant attributes from an unfamiliar dataset to inform a business report. Depending on the assigned condition, users can request guidance, which the system then provides in the form of attribute suggestions. To ensure internal validity, we control for the quality of guidance across source-conditions. Through several metrics of usage and perception, we statistically test five preregistered hypotheses and report on additional analysis. We find that the source of guidance matters to users, but not in a manner that matches received wisdom. For instance, users utilize guidance differently at various stages of analysis, including expressing varying levels of regret, despite receiving guidance of similar quality. Notably, users in the AI condition reported both higher post-task benefit and regret.

Atanu R Sinha, Tanay Anand, Paridhi Maheshwari et al.

A site's recommendation system relies on knowledge of its users' preferences to offer relevant recommendations to them. These preferences are for attributes that comprise items and content shown on the site, and are estimated from the data of users' interactions with the site. Another form of users' preferences is material too, namely, users' preferences for the site over other sites, since that shows users' base level propensities to engage with the site. Estimating users' preferences for the site, however, faces major obstacles because (a) the focal site usually has no data of its users' interactions with other sites; these interactions are users' unobserved behaviors for the focal site; and (b) the Machine Learning literature in recommendation does not offer a model of this situation. Even if (b) is resolved, the problem in (a) persists since without access to data of its users' interactions with other sites, there is no ground truth for evaluation. Moreover, it is most useful when (c) users' preferences for the site can be estimated at the individual level, since the site can then personalize recommendations to individual users. We offer a method to estimate individual user's preference for a focal site, under this premise. In particular, we compute the focal site's share of a user's online engagements without any data from other sites. We show an evaluation framework for the model using only the focal site's data, allowing the site to test the model. We rely upon a Hierarchical Bayes Method and perform estimation in two different ways - Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Stochastic Gradient with Langevin Dynamics. Our results find good support for the approach to computing personalized share of engagement and for its evaluation.

Harvineet Singh, Moumita Sinha, Atanu R. Sinha et al.

Email communications are ubiquitous. Firms control send times of emails and thereby the instants at which emails reach recipients (it is assumed email is received instantaneously from the send time). However, they do not control the duration it takes for recipients to open emails, labeled as time-to-open. Importantly, among emails that are opened, most occur within a short window from their send times. We posit that emails are likely to be opened sooner when send times are convenient for recipients, while for other send times, emails can get ignored. Thus, to compute appropriate send times it is important to predict times-to-open accurately. We propose a recurrent neural network (RNN) in a survival model framework to predict times-to-open, for each recipient. Using that we compute appropriate send times. We experiment on a data set of emails sent to a million customers over five months. The sequence of emails received by a person from a sender is a result of interactions with past emails from the sender, and hence contain useful signal that inform our model. This sequential dependence affords our proposed RNN-Survival (RNN-S) approach to outperform survival analysis approaches in predicting times-to-open. We show that best times to send emails can be computed accurately from predicted times-to-open. This approach allows a firm to tune send times of emails, which is in its control, to favorably influence open rates and engagement.

Somak Aditya, Atanu Sinha

Online behaviors of consumers and marketers generate massive marketing data, which ever more sophisticated models attempt to turn into insights and aid decisions by marketers. Yet, in making decisions human managers bring to bear marketing knowledge which reside outside of data and models. Thus, it behooves creation of an automated marketing knowledge base that can interact with data and models. Currently, marketing knowledge is dispersed in large corpora, but no definitive knowledge base for marketing exists. Out of the two broad aspects of marketing knowledge - representation and reasoning - this treatise focuses on the former. Specifically, we focus on creation of marketing knowledge graph from corpora, which requires identification of entities and relations. The relation identification task is particularly challenging in marketing, because of the non-factoid nature of much marketing knowledge, and the difficulty of forming rules that govern relations. Specifically, we define a set of relations to capture marketing knowledge, propose a pipeline for creating the knowledge graph from text and propose a rule-guided semi-supervised relation prediction algorithm to extract relations between marketing entities from sentences.

Ritwik Sinha, Dhruv Singal, Pranav Maneriker et al.

Orchestration of campaigns for online display advertising requires marketers to forecast audience size at the granularity of specific attributes of web traffic, characterized by the categorical nature of all attributes (e.g. {US, Chrome, Mobile}). With each attribute taking many values, the very large attribute combination set makes estimating audience size for any specific attribute combination challenging. We modify Eclat, a frequent itemset mining (FIM) algorithm, to accommodate categorical variables. For consequent frequent and infrequent itemsets, we then provide forecasts using time series analysis with conditional probabilities to aid approximation. An extensive simulation, based on typical characteristics of audience data, is built to stress test our modified-FIM approach. In two real datasets, comparison with baselines including neural network models, shows that our method lowers computation time of FIM for categorical data. On hold out samples we show that the proposed forecasting method outperforms these baselines.